Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[SoberasHotRod]

It feels like Tre is trending up and Ace is trending down, even without looking at this. If Ace is there at 5 and that’s where we end up, hallelujah. I think the least excited I’d be is if VJ is there at 5. I kinda just don’t see it.

Liam McNeely doesn’t do anything at an NBA level. He’s on my short list of do not draft. For a top recruit playing on the perennial conference champs in a pretty weak conference, his BPM is bad. His TS% is bad despite being the height of a college big and a rep as a lights out shooter. He’s a hustle player and was barely positive in DBPM (0.8!), dwarfed by the likes of Danny Wolf (5.2!!!) who is supposed to be terrible defensively and played against way better competition. His only saving grace at this juncture is that he’s a freshman, if he played one more year near this level he would be projected in the mid-2nd at best.

McNeeley had a bad year, but I don't think he's a bad prospect, especially at 21. His injury, role, and normal Freshman adjustment to the college game can explain some of the numbers being bad. He had enough big games to see the potential. I don't think anyone who has followed him for a long time is concerned about his shooting.

I think McNeeley ends up being the guy that does everything just well enough that he is an extremely useful player, or the guy that doesn't do anything at an elite level, and so struggles to find a role in the NBA.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Schmitz was gonna be an ESPN darling though. He was great on TV. He was the president of summer league too... people lit up when he was around and team personnel were like crawling over themselves to say hi. When he left I think DX became a complete afterthought.

FWIW, Schmitz isn't the ESPN analyst I was thinking of. This guy was a contemporary of Chad Ford and John Hollinger, and he occasionally did podcasts with David Locke since the two worked together in Seattle.

Edit: Kevin Pelton

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I thought Sergio de Larrea would have been a very cool pick for the Jazz, but alas... The normal thing for the Jazz to do would be to take Rasheer Fleming at #21, assuming he's there. Otherwise, I could see the Jazz take Traore or Richardson if they're still available.

I could see the Jazz moving off of this pick one way or another. They could make a move for Carter Bryant or maybe Kasparas if he starts slipping. Or they could trade back a bit and take someone like Drake Powell, Noah Penda or maybe Thiero.

I like Philon, but I'm not entirely convinced he'd be better than Collier overall.

If the past 2 drafts are any indication, I don't think the Jazz will pick Fleming. I would say DA is much more likely to pick the guy who falls.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

What type of prospect are you hoping the Jazz select with 21?

- International Man of Mystery
- Lotto mocked prospect that falls
- Older prospect that might be overlooked
- Other

Name names if you want

Guy who slides on draft night. Potential candidates - Queen, Fears, Kas, Jase

I get that its unlikely but Whitmore, Collier, Knecht, Sengun had big or slight slides that ended up in that general range. A guy can dream.

Otherwise I think Flemming, Bryant, McNeeley, Egor or Traore are all bets I'd like or understand.

Not a lot of guys I'd hate tbh.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

If the past 2 drafts are any indication, I don't think the Jazz will pick Fleming. I would say DA is much more likely to pick the guy who falls.

I get it. I think Fleming is going to end up ranked higher than #21 and he'd be considered good value at #21. I could see McNeeley getting to #21. I'm ambivalent about him, but I'd understand the pick.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Jazz like positional size, length, athleticism and shooting. Of course, so does every other team. But these criteria would make it surprising if the Jazz took Jase Richardson, for example.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Guy who slides on draft night. Potential candidates - Queen, Fears, Kas, Jase

I get that its unlikely but Whitmore, Collier, Knecht, Sengun had big or slight slides that ended up in that general range. A guy can dream.

Otherwise I think Flemming, Bryant, McNeeley, Egor or Traore are all bets I'd like or understand.

Not a lot of guys I'd hate tbh.

A guy who is likely to fall is Sorber due to his injury. I'm not sure he's the type of player the Jazz would want though. Another guy I could see slip compared to the overall consensus is Asa Newell. After the Combine, teams may realize that he's more or less Precious Achiuwa.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Guy who slides on draft night. Potential candidates - Queen, Fears, Kas, Jase

I get that its unlikely but Whitmore, Collier, Knecht, Sengun had big or slight slides that ended up in that general range. A guy can dream.

Otherwise I think Flemming, Bryant, McNeeley, Egor or Traore are all bets I'd like or understand.

Not a lot of guys I'd hate tbh.

I could see Queen falling. Maybe not that far, but I could see teams scared about his defense, taking plays off, fit on their team, etc.

He's also the kind of guy that if he starts falling outside of his projected range, teams might be scared based on limited intel.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I think it's interesting that both Drake Powell and Ian Jackson are leaving UNC after their freshman season, albeit with different destinations. I think Drake Powell has some on-ball ability that he didn't get to show this year. I also don't think he's really as passive as he looked. He has some potential as a big, athletic defensive combo-guard. If things go well for him, he might turn out similar to Quentin Grimes. I think he'd probably go later than #21, but it wouldn't shock me if he went that high. (FWIW, Grimes was a #25 pick.)

 

[kcgar]

What makes you so confident that Ace is going to be at least as good as current Jabari Smith? You say that like it is a given, when it's clearly not.

Absolutely, nothing is a given. I just think that his skillset and size translate extremely well to the NBA. Everything he does wrong is all very fixable. There is nothing that has been said about his personality or attitude that would hinder him from working hard to get better and smarter. To me, his worst attribute is his BBIQ, especially when it comes to the types of shots that he takes. He wants to shoot long twos, while having two players draped on him. Again, I think that is fixable. I think part of the problem is he went from being the main guy and scorer in high school to basically being the same on a terrible team at Rutgers. There wasn't very much coaching going on there. They needed him to do what he did. Also, his defense is above average when he locks in. I would be interested to know what you think his floor is? How many players that played like him (and that size) in college were busts in NBA or at very least worse than Jabari? Honestly, I don't know that answer. I will eat crow if I am wrong.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

FWIW, I think Ace Bailey is going to be better than Jabari Smith. Bailey is more functionally athletic than Smith, imo, and he's a more creative and dynamic scorer.

That said, I also thought Taylor Hendricks would be better than Jabari Smith, at least before his injury. I'm just not a fan of Smith in general.

 

[KqWIN]

Pelton's rankings:

2025 NBA Draft Rankings (Consensus WARP)

1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.3 WARP

2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP

3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP

4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.7 WARP

5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke
Top 100: No. 43
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.0 WARP

6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 2.9 WARP

7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 2.9 WARP

8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.6 WARP

9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.6 WARP

10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 2.6 WARP

11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.4 WARP

12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 2.4 WARP

13. Miles Byrd, SG, San Diego State
Top 100: No. 50
Stats: No. 5
Consensus: 2.3 WARP

14. Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 21
Consensus: 2.3 WARP

15. Asa Newell, PF, Georgia
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 11
Consensus: 2.3 WARP

16. Boogie Fland, PG, Arkansas
Top 100: No. 52
Stats: No. 6
Consensus: 2.2 WARP

17. Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 37
Consensus: 2.2 WARP

18. Carter Bryant, F, Arizona
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 18
Consensus: 2.2 WARP

19. Walter Clayton Jr., PG, Florida
Top 100: No. 28
Stats: No. 13
Consensus: 2.1 WARP

20. Liam McNeeley, SF, UConn
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 23
Consensus: 2.1 WARP

21. Rasheer Fleming, PF, Saint Joseph's
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 15
Consensus: 2.0 WARP

22. Kam Jones, G, Marquette
Top 100: No. 44
Stats: No. 12
Consensus: 1.9 WARP

23. Koby Brea, SG, Kentucky
Top 100: No. 55
Stats: No. 9
Consensus: 1.9 WARP

24. Tahaad Pettiford, PG, Auburn
Top 100: No. 38
Stats: No. 17
Consensus: 1.8 WARP

25. Payton Sandfort, SF, Iowa
Top 100: No. 84
Stats: No. 10
Consensus: 1.8 WARP

26. Nolan Traore, PG, Saint Quentin (France)
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 36
Consensus: 1.7 WARP

27. Cedric Coward, SF, Washington State
Top 100: No. 53
Stats: No. 16
Consensus: 1.7 WARP

28. Will Riley, F/G, Illinois
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 43
Consensus: 1.6 WARP

29. Thomas Sorber, C Georgetown
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 32

30. Alex Karaban, F, UConn
Top 100: No. 36
Stats: No. 26

Countdown to the NBA draft: What the numbers reveal about 30 top prospects

The 2025 NBA draft is less than two months away. Here's what the numbers say about 30 of the top prospects and eligible players.

www.espn.com

 

[NUMBERICA]

I also just really don’t care for Queen. He’s a “freshman” that’s half a year younger than Wolf who’s a junior. Dinosaur. Poor man’s Big Al but has some passing ability.

Also, where are we playing him? As a strict-backup to Kessler? If he’s there at 21, great, anything before that and I’m out.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Pelton's rankings:

Countdown to the NBA draft: What the numbers reveal about 30 top prospects

The 2025 NBA draft is less than two months away. Here's what the numbers say about 30 of the top prospects and eligible players.

www.espn.com

That's the guy I was thinking of -- Kevin Pelton.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I could see Queen falling. Maybe not that far, but I could see teams scared about his defense, taking plays off, fit on their team, etc.

He's also the kind of guy that if he starts falling outside of his projected range, teams might be scared based on limited intel.

Yeah was thinking that type of big slides and pgs can slide based on teams having prospects in place or vets… I think 21 is a bit too far tho but I could see us trading up 5+ spots to catch someone who is sliding.

 

[kcgar]

You know evaluations are not that black and white. A good example of this is Jalen Green, who got paid 35 million a year in the hopes that he develops into the player everyone hoped he would be. He's certainly not being paid based on his performance in his rookie contract. Andrew Wiggins, after his rookie contract, got paid by the Wolves in the hopes he would turn into a star. Wiggins was and is an effective player, but its a far cry from where he was drafted. And I can't say that Wiggins worked out for the Wolves all that well.

Teams are incentivized to hold onto players because even a mildly bad contract is an asset that can be used to wheel and deal for other pieces. And teams also like to hold out hope on those tantalizing, high upside, super athletic, all potential players. That is what Ace is to me. He might very well work out and I will have egg on my face. But, half of the guys in the first round probably won't work out. If I am picking out which guys won't work out, I honestly would bet the under on Ace.

Unfortunately, that is just how the NBA works, You hit and miss on players and you may need to pay someone more than you want.

I would be interested in knowing on your board (3-14), who does meet your criteria? Who is going to be worth the big 2nd contract? Who won't need the long development that Ace allegedly won't need? It seems that you are insinuating that all of the players on your board, where Ace is mocked to go, won't have any of those issues or at least much less than Ace. I am honestly interested in your opinion. Also, do you think, based on your position of Ace at 23, and all pro scouts not having him below 5, is a bit strange?

3.) Queen
4.) Tre
5.) Essengue
6.) Beringer
7.) Clayton Jr.
8.) VJ
9.) Jakucionis
10.) Clifford
11.) Kon
12.) CMB
13.) Bryant
14.) Fleming

 

[KqWIN]

I thought this was interesting from Pelton. For those who like to factor in HS performance a lot, Kon might be a sleeping giant.

Having Flagg's teammate just behind him is a more surprising outcome. Based strictly on college performance, Knueppel would drop a few spots, more in line with where he ranks in the top 100 (No. 9).

However, Knueppel had the strongest projection of any prospect who participated in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. He posted a .642 true shooting percentage on 35% usage in 2023, suggesting more shot creation potential than we saw alongside other talented prospects at Duke.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Another pitch for Wolf: I think it’s really important to have some unique players that can break defenses because they’re unique/weird. If he’s there and doesn’t pan out at 21, that’s fine. I understand the concerning shooting indicators (mostly FT% at his age, though he shot 35% from 3 shooting a bunch off the dribble), I would also point out that he’s in the ~88th percentile in converting in isolation last year and ran something like 130 PnRs… as a big. Being that tall combined with his handing/juice and his passing ability could have cheat code implications. He competes on defense which you can work with if you have a good scheme and secondary rim protectors (Hendricks; Flagg, VJ, and Bailey all look like they have this). His combination of attributes are a complete outlier and I think that’s a great bet to take at 21.

 

[KqWIN]

Guy who slides on draft night. Potential candidates - Queen, Fears, Kas, Jase

I get that its unlikely but Whitmore, Collier, Knecht, Sengun had big or slight slides that ended up in that general range. A guy can dream.

Otherwise I think Flemming, Bryant, McNeeley, Egor or Traore are all bets I'd like or understand.

Not a lot of guys I'd hate tbh.

I think it’s actually very likely that a guy we think of as maybe going top 10 will be there at 21. Draft boards move a ton between now and the draft.

 

[jom2003]

givony has pretty just turned into a whore at his point. yeah, we will let you come watch the workout as long as you say a lot of positive things about our client. you got it!

to think he used to be a legit draft analyst.

Yeah, draftexpress used to be the Shams/woj of draft scouting report. The decline is insane.