Following Potential 2025 Draftees
- Thread starter Elizah Huge
- Start date
I actually kind of agree with almost everything you posted here. I'm not that down on Ace personally, he's definitely a top 6 pick in my opinion.
FWIW, Keandre (Hoop Intellect) has Ace's floor as a a back end of the rotation player
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viP5Z09tTpY
I think Ace would be drafted in the 5-10 range in an average draft. That would give him a 25-40% chance of being a role player or worse based on this website: https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Are u saying this draft is weak?
I think he could go #1 in ~20% of drafts, pretty easily would’ve been #1 last year IMO. No-brainer #1 pick in the late-90’s early 2000’s coming out of high school.
He’s got some major warts but I think most aren’t certain (I think he could become a passable passer but it’s the thing I’m most concerned with improving enough). His ceiling is definitely top-3 in this draft.
I think it is weaker than normal after 2.
Last year, yes, probably. He's pretty unimpressive on paper though: https://www.tankathon.com/players/ace-bailey
What he showed at Rutgers was not very good. I think that either means Dylan Harper is overrated or they were really on a bad team with bad coaching.
Harper was incredible this season. How does Ace being bad indicate that Harper is potentially overrated?
Kinda stupid big picture impact on winning. Besides that their record sucked, both of their BPM kinda sucked also (< 6)*. More advanced numbers in terms of winning impact probably exist that create more differentiation.
Zooming out even further, if Rutgers were the equivalent of South Carolina and GG and kinda just pitched a message of “PLZ JUST COME HERE AND YOU CAN DO WHATEVER YOU WANT” and followed through on it, I think it changes how you can view both of their seasons in terms of winning impact and development, regardless of what the numbers say right now.
EDIT: I was shooting from the hip and my recollection is they were both hovering around 5 BPM, but Harper is 9.2 which is tight.
I think a bad situation can change how you view a prospect, I just don't know why it would indicate that Ace is better than his production but Harper is overrated when they are on the same team.
In the event that their BPM is nearly the same (which it is not and I was mistaken).
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I guess my issue with this exercise (right now) is after like 6/7 there isn't a ton of consensus from 8-20 or so. Like if I said I think Asa is there someone could point to him being like 25 or whatever in Vecenie's mock.
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Big Post incoming
Before I go through my 3-14,
It is disconcerting to be so far off consensus when it comes to Ace. It makes me question if I am letting my own bias blind me to what everyone else sees in Ace. But, should I trust my own thoughts on the matter or lean more into consensus/pro scout opinions? If I lean into consensus, I will probably be more right with the evaluations overall. But if everyone leans into consensus, then its just self feeding, group think. Of course, we all mix our own evaluations with the consensus to come to a happy medium that conforms with our thinking without being too far out of left field. All that to say, its tough.
On this board, I wanted to be a bit spicy and throw out my unfiltered thoughts without adjusting it for common sense, so to speak. Is Clayton Jr., Clifford, and Beringer going in the Top 10? Probably not. VJ is probably a top 4 pick purely based on how outrageous his athleticism is. Ace has worrying elements to his play but has some standout traits as well.
Now to go through 3-14:
3.) Queen - Very high skill level in general and especially for a big, think he can become a 1A hub player. A guy you build everything around. The defense you figure out later. Comes in day 1 and is one of the best players on the team.
4.) Tre - Very Elite 3 point shooter both on ball and off ball. Having both Lauri and Tre running off a bunch of actions into 3s would be a great basis for the offense. Think his passing vision will shine in a Will Hardy Offense. Would like to see both on ball and off ball stuff with him. Best guard on team day 1. Defense will probably be bad, hopefully not worst in the NBA
5.) Essengue - Long athletic slender man type, seems like a potential pick like Ace but I like how he gets to the rim quite a bit more. Also saw some high motor plays on tape which encourages me. Comes in day 1 and can start at the wing for us.
This guy I need to watch more of but I really like the initial stuff that I have seen.
6.) Beringer - More of a potential pick but uncommonly athletic for a guy his size, no hands issue and can come in day 1 to challenge Kessler. Defense is great and the Offense can come along in a couple of years. Think he has a higher ceiling than Kessler. also of the opinion that bigs need less skill in general to make an impact.
7.) Clayton Jr. - Love the way he plays, flowing in and out of the offense which combines both his on ball juice with his off ball movement; Also think his athleticism is underrated. Would come in and be our 2nd best guard immediately.
8.) VJ - Outlier Elite levels of Athleticism set him apart and can be a good secondary guard immediately, playing a role and has the upside to develop into more as well.
9.) Jakucionis - On ball guard with great passing vision, can run the offense but the later season stuff has me a bit nervous. Considered dropping him but I believe in the shot and the playmaking enough to put him here. Hesitant because we already have Collier but I believe in him enough to make it a competition.
10.) Clifford - Do everything guard/wing. Incredibly versatile player who will also help the rebounding numbers from the guard position. The age thing has me a little nervous. Comes in day 1 as our second best guard.
11.) Kon - Numbers look crazy good for this guy, enough where it offsets the worry I have about him getting no separation.
12.) CMB - Unique prospect who pops numbers wise but is a strange fit on most teams. Also not a shooter. Don't know how he would fit in but throw him out there and I think good things will happen.
13.) Bryant - I haven't watch much of Bryant, the evaluation that I am most shaky on. But 6'8" wing who plays his role/defense and is a team player.
14.) Fleming - Similar to Taylor Hendricks in my mind. Wouldn't be bad to have another guy like Hendricks.
So, all 14 bring something that can affect the Jazz in a positive way next year. The one most similar to Ace would be Noa (physical profile and youth) and Tre (Elite trait being shooting).
For Tre, I think the shooting is at a much higher level and its at a greater volume from 3. Tre can be one of the best, most versatile long range shooters in the league. Plus I see good things with the passing. Could be a lead guard type.
For Noa, I am a bit more shaky but according to the stats 56% FG with only 29% 3FG. Not good from 3 but the overall % is very good. If the 3% gets better to around 35%, then the FG% overall will be around 58%. This indicates that his scoring within the arc is really good even if the jumper isn't great right now. This is the one you could argue with me on and I would say, I just like Noa alot more. Not the most rational take but until I dive in more thats how I see it.
How does Ace stack up to these guys? Ace has the size/athleticism and good not great shooting. People say that Ace's shooting is actually much better and it might be. He certainly makes a bunch of contested jumpers with ease.
But finding easy shots is also part of the skill level. The lack of easy shots combined with lack of passing vision makes me think he is going to take alot of bad shots in the NBA in the first couple of years. He is going to get stuck on an NBA wing defender, he won't pass it out, he will just elevate and try to get a shot off because that's what he always does.
Is a contested midrange jumper a good shot for Ace Bailey? If he is elite at making them then its fine. If he isn't elite at making them, then its no good. Like Tre Johnson, the whole evaluation rests on how elite or not elite the shooting is. The FG% is 46% and the 3FG% is 34.6%. Good not great. Enough to be a streaky shooter but not truly elite. Essentially Keyonte George in wing form but without the passing and the foul drawing. Hopefully he is good at defense.
I don't know how to evaluate shooting, I can only go by the numbers and my impressions.
I think the deep fear with Ace is that he is the right amount of High athleticism, High potential, tantalizing scoring talent without the feel and refinement; Enough to draft high and be forever the "Man if he develops he will be great" and he just never develops and stays as a negative impact player. Its an irrational fear and it can happen with any prospect but I have that feeling most keenly with Ace. I feel bad mojo with him. Thats the best way I can explain it.
The only exclusions I can see that I would consider drafting are Bruce Thornton and Sandfort.
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Alright, that looks alot more than what I typed out but I wanted to be thorough
Nominee for this year's 'If He Could Shoot' award --
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrG2OO-J_tc
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrG2OO-J_tc
There is really no reason to try and conform on this stuff. It's all subjective and there is no prize for being right or wrong. Being off from consensus might mean you aren't seeing the whole picture, or it could just mean you value stuff differently than consensus.
I remember one of my first posts on this site was about how I didn't have Exum in my top 10 and I got some flack for that. Just be yourself, different opinions should be welcome.
Karter Knox could be a sleeper for our draft range in the later 1st round.