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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

KqWIN said:
These are summaries by the way....he talks about a lot of these guys more in depth in other articles.

CMB:

There is no doubt in my mind that CMB will end up being a top-3 defender in this draft. I also wouldn't be surprised if his combine measurements are on the positive side — both wingspan and hand size. On offense, he can bully his way to the basket thanks to a strong frame, and he's a good passer. If he ever gets his 3 to fall, he could easily become a top-20 player in the impact metrics.

Best fit: A team with a stretch-5 that needs defense (e.g. BOS, NY, CHI, SAS).

Clayton:

If you're looking for a shot at getting the next Jalen Brunson, Clayton might be your guy. Both are about the same height, with a sturdy frame and an NCAA championship under their belts. Clayton gets by people with ease and possesses good footwork around the basket, allowing for creative finishes. He also plays a very modern brand of basketball, with a 3-point attempt rate above 50% — and he made 39% on more than 800 college attempts in four seasons.

Best fit: Playoff teams that need a guard (DEN, ORL, HOU, MIN, DAL).

Fleming:

Going with the theme of potential two-way impact players, Fleming is a high-energy big with, apparently, a huge wingspan. That should allow him to defend up to four different positions in the NBA.Watching Fleming’s tape, I saw what appears to be the best rebounding hands in the class. On top of that, Fleming made 39% of his 160 3-point attempts this season.

Best fit: Playoff teams that need a versatile, defense-oriented forward (MIL, ATL, LAL, SAC, PHX).

Tre:

The player I'm lowest on — compared to consensus — is Tre Johnson. Shooting guards generally have had a horrid success rate in recent drafts, and Johnson doesn't stand out enough to break that trend. Quite the contrary: I think his tiny step size will make it extremely hard to get by defenders in the NBA. He couldn't in college, despite committing a giant number of traveling violations, called and uncalled.

Best fit: A team with a giant hole at shooting guard and good team culture.
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Step size is a new term for me as far as prospect analysis. Interesting.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Step size is a new term for me as far as prospect analysis. Interesting.
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I like to look at stride length, which I guess is the same thing....and it's given mixed results like most things. Tre does seem to have some happy feet that's somewhat unique to him. It doesn't bother me as much as it does JE, but I see what he's saying after he mentioned it.
 
KqWIN said:
So first I'd clarify that these aren't the outputs of a model, it's his personal rankings. He knows what the indicators are, but being a stats guy isn't just about reading the stat sheet or model results. He uses film and approaches things with a healthy amount of skepticism, whenever he mentions the numbers he's usually also talking about how much it aligns with what he sees on film.

I understand what you're saying about Tre and Ace. They're scorers, and they seem to be about the same level of scorer so that's what should matter. But another part of being a "stats guy" is taking a more holistic view. These other differences that you mention, especially the rebounds and stocks, aren't just an after thought. They matter in a big way. Speaking of scoring, that's not what he likes about Ace and says he may have the worst shot selection in the sport. The big difference in ranking comes from their attributes. Ace has way better physical tools which gives him much more defensive potential and also instills some belief/hope that he can play differently in the future. He specifically notes that Ace will need ~years to entirely rework his game, so you're really betting on the tools not the production. JE doesn't have the same belief in Tre. He doesn't love the production of either, but thinks the production represents Tre more than it does with Ace. He hates Tre's footwork and thinks he travels every play and needs a lot of steps to go a short distance....which tbh is something I didn't notice but is starting to be something I cannot unsee.

It's also worth mentioning that a big reason why he has Ace 3 is in the name of swinging for the fences. Thinks that if you're drafting high and planning on tanking for awhile you should go for the riskier prospect because he either works out or he helps you continue the tank. I get the impression that he'd bet on CMB and Kon being better players, but they are less likely to be stars and more likely to worsen your tanking chances in the next 1-2 years.
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thanks for that. makes sense.
 
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