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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Yanic is staying the draft. I believe that is the last major piece of the puzzle.

So definitely a significant amount of guys returning to college because of NIL, but still plenty of talent in the top 40.
 
Right... but he just didn't do it often because he wasn't really asked to... or maybe he wasn't good at it and that is why. I think all these guys have warts but Kon is "low upside" because of how he looks and that he has stubby arms.

Playing well with others is a feature... not a bug.

I'm also not discounting Tre... I think Kon and Tre belong in the same conversation... with Ace and VJ.

mate you're on drugs Kon is a slug who'll be Doug McDermott. He's not take a swing for a high level player type.
 
So underclassmen that are projected to go in the second round per tankathon:

- Thiero, Powell, Proctor, Yanic, RJ Luis

Last year there were 8 underclassmen picked in the second round.
In 2023 there were 11 underclassmen picked in the second round.
In 2022 there were 15 underclassmen picked in the second round.
 
100%. I haven't really seen that too much out there.


I don't think Kon can be as on ball as Kas. Part of my issue with Kas is the really high bar to be a primarily on ball guy. I think because Kon basically played the role you could expect him to have in the NBA and he was amazing at it... at a high level... I feel more comfortable that there is a good base to build from.

Kas is a conundrum for me. Maybe he can go off ball and excel at it... then the role is smaller and more digestible. My issue is with the folks that say "you can't take Kon at 5... we need to swing for the fences.... he has low upside...yada yada". Like automatically everything Kon does except shoot will disappear with increased length, strength, and size. Like we don't have guys getting into the middle and playing off two feet and drawing fouls that are having huge success right now.

We need to take Kon and then trade into the back half of the lotto and take Kas... and fill the earth with puke emojis.

Kas vs Kon is an interesting one to me. Partly because I'm taking over as the #1 Kas stan, but also because they seem to have similar concerns despite having very different games. I just see a lot of Kas criticism out there and a lot of hype about scaled up Kon and often from the same people. I get the impression that if Kon did more on ball creation—and did well like Kas—these same people would be also be fading Kon.

I'm definitely not that guy to say Kon has low potential though. It's totally possible he's better than Kas at these things, I just don't like viewing the theoretical thing is better than actual thing. I also reject the idea that you need to take a "swing" to hit on high potential. Being able to easily see a guy as an NBA player is definitely a better indicator than not. It's kind of the same issue. You get intrigued by what you don't see. I think people are enchanted by the idea of "high risk high reward, you need take a big swing". If that's how this worked, I'd be right with them, but I really don't think it does.
 
Kas vs Kon is an interesting one to me. Partly because I'm taking over as the #1 Kas stan, but also because they seem to have similar concerns despite having very different games. I just see a lot of Kas criticism out there and a lot of hype about scaled up Kon and often from the same people. I get the impression that if Kon did more on ball creation—and did well like Kas—these same people would be also be fading Kon.

I'm definitely not that guy to say Kon has low potential though. It's totally possible he's better than Kas at these things, I just don't like viewing the theoretical thing is better than actual thing. I also reject the idea that you need to take a "swing" to hit on high potential. Being able to easily see a guy as an NBA player is definitely a better indicator than not. It's kind of the same issue. You get intrigued by what you don't see. I think people are enchanted by the idea of "high risk high reward, you need take a big swing". If that's how this worked, I'd be right with them, but I really don't think it does.
There is just this weird thought that because we don't have the primary guy yet, and we may have whiffed the last couple years... that we must swing on a guy that can be a number 1. We need some runners on base and don't have to force a big swing. I also don't think Tre is a big swing and has very similar reasonable ceiling outcomes as Kon.
 
There is just this weird thought that because we don't have the primary guy yet, and we may have whiffed the last couple years... that we must swing on a guy that can be a number 1. We need some runners on base and don't have to force a big swing. I also don't think Tre is a big swing and has very similar reasonable ceiling outcomes as Kon.

For me, it's more "the bigger swing doesn't always give you a higher a chance to hit a homerun". I want the highest chance of a star and I want it even if it comes with the most risk. But I don't think it often does. I don't think we really think about potential correctly. The guy who is better at getting on base can also be the guy with the highest chance of being a home run.
 
For me, it's more "the bigger swing doesn't always give you a higher a chance to hit a homerun". I want the highest chance of a star and I want it even if it comes with the most risk. But I don't think it often does. I don't think we really think about potential correctly. The guy who is better at getting on base can also be the guy with the highest chance of being a home run.
So is the hope/idea that Kon and/or Kas is an RBI?
 
I'm guessing Thiero got a promise.

He's good! He should go in the first round. Yes, he needs to learn how to shoot to be a real NBA player but so do most of these guys. Derik Queen needs to learn how to shoot too and Queen is only a couple months younger than him. I have Thiero and Queen and CMB all in the same tier.
 
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So is the hope/idea that Kon and/or Kas is an RBI?

I’m saying they could be a home run. I think people are stuck in this floor/ceiling mindset which doesn’t really reflect reality. We put caps on a range of outcomes that doesn’t really exist/can’t be known.

What we should be thinking about instead is what would need to happen for X player to reach a certain level and how likely that is.
 
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