2 part question:
1. What's the difference in wins between the following two lineups next season?
Lineup A
4/5: Favors/Kanter/Evans/Gobert
3: Marvin/Hood
1/2: Burke/Burks/Exum
Lineup B
4/5: Favors/Kanter/Evans/Gobert
3: Hayward/Hood
1/2: Burke/Burks/Exum
2. How good is the 2015 draft? Given your answer to part 1, how much better would the Jazz's pick be next season? If Hayward gets $14mm+, is he worth more than the cap space and the better pick next season?
First of all: I think this is a very good question.
If you look at flat numbers:
Hayward: 12/13 - 5,4 WS - 0,123 WS/48
13/14 - 3,6 WS - 0,062 WS/48
Williams: 11/12 - 4,9 WS - 0,156 WS/48 (Atlanta)
12/13 - 2,3 WS - 0,063 WS/48
13/14 - 2,9 WS - 0,084 WS/48
That would suggest they're less than 1 win apart. If you look at the bigger picture, I think Marvin is a lower usage player 16.7% vs Gordon's 23.1%. These possessions would go to other players.
This could result in other players making more out of these opportunities if Gordon's last year performance is the benchmark or less if you look at the year before that.
Then you have to factor in a new coach and the whole thing is getting very messy. There is a lot of noise in this data because Hayward's career has been a roller coaster ride production and efficiency wise so far.
My non statistics view on the thing is I don't think Hayward over Marv is bringing you more than 1 extra win, unless Hayward is a go to guy like last year but with 12/13 scoring efficiency. Then he'll bring more wins, but also worth the money that other teams vow to throw at him.
I hope the Jazz match no matter what the number is. It does no harm and his next contract won't include delusional talk about his potential upside, when he's 28(The same year that Exum's extension would kick in)
If your talking about the lottery selections or near by, the strengths of the 2015 draft appear to be 2 positions of need for the Jazz;
Defensive minded SF's and 7 footers.
Stanley Johnson will go top 5 barring injury, hes monstrously strong for a Freshman, can shoot and drive too.
Justice Winslow and Rondae Hollis Jefferson both should be in the range of lottery picks, both have shooting issues but are freak athletes and noted defenders.
Mario Hezonja will go top 10 for sure, he has plenty of defensive capability though hes a bit of a gambler at this point, Its rumored hes grown to 6'8".
Kelly Oubre is also a wildcard hes a 6'7 lefty with a 7'2 Wingspan, he made a massive rise up the rankings last year all the way to being projected 12th in DX's mock.
The 7'ers are Karl Towns, Okafor's 6'11 but hes 270 so im listing him here, Kristaps Porzingis, Willie Cauley Stein, and possibly Myles Turner and Illimane Diop.
After the teens though, from what it looks like to me theres a steep decline in talent. (though i do still have some players i like in that range, theyre few and far between)
The projected 2nd rounders are a joke compared to this year, most of them are players who dropped out of previous drafts. Mamadou Jaiteh for example is projected as the 29th pick in DX's mock, he wasn't even a top 40 player (and dropped out of) the 2012 draft.
The 2015 and 2016 drafts are strong in big man talent - Which is why the Joel Embiid pick really surprised me. Unless Philly has some weird trade and free agency plans they'll have to tank until 2017 to get a real good guard/wing prospect. Also the next drafts don't seem to contain wing guys that are both athletic and can shoot.
I don't agree with PGAB here. Stanley Johnson is the guy of next year that intrigued me a lot. And his shooting is inefficient, his shot selection is poor, overal BBIQ is questionable and his mechanics need polishing. If he doesn't improve over this summer, weaknesses will be unfolded this fall when college teams dare Arizona to shoot.(Edit: I want to add that it's certain lineups where spacing might be pooor. And you'll see the Johnson + Hollis-Jefferson + Tarczewski lineups)
Next year's guys that I'm really high on are Towns and Okafor. Okafor is smaller than estimated a couple years ago, but he's Al Jefferson who's more reflective worst case.
Towns might develop into a guy that's really altering defensive schemes of opposite teams. Rare skillset for someone his size. Not unique, but rare.
I really like the 7-15 range in next year's draft. The overload of talent lead to a lot of guys attending an extra college year to go higher then or improve their games and change front offices opinions about them. I think 7-15 will be as strong as this year's. A lot of talent, some experience, a lot of very talented international guys who may or may not break out in the Spanish league next season. I think the Spanish league might be more interesting than some college conferences next year.
