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Grantland Article about Utah Trades and Approach to Free Agency

mdalby

mdalby

Well-Known Member
Draft Picks: Too Much Value?

The price for that improvement: two first-round draft picks and two second-rounders, with Utah spending a whopping $24 million to acquire those assets. Depending on how you value second-rounders, Utah spent something like $10 million apiece on two first-round picks, one of which — Golden State’s 2014 pick — will likely fall below no. 20. That is a high price, especially since Utah could have fielded a playoff contender by using its cap space to chase Jeff Teague (almost unwanted in Atlanta, sources say), re-signing Paul Millsap, and filling out the rest of the roster with bit players.

Now? Utah is in full-on developmental mode, handing the point guard reins to Trey Burke and essentially punting on a run for one of the two last playoff spots in the Western Conference — a competition that belongs, for now, to Denver, Portland, Minnesota, New Orleans, and whatever Dallas is. Heck, Utah could have used that cap space in ways that would have netted better assets two or three moves down the road.

Playing for the 2014 draft is fine in theory. All the draftniks agree the coming class is the most loaded since the fabled 2003 group, and the NBA’s incentive structure encourages prioritizing draft position over snagging the no. 7 seed and earning ritual sacrifice against the Spurs.
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https://www.grantland.com/blog/the-...and-what-weve-learned-from-free-agency-so-far

I find this article to be a VERY poor assessment of Utah's moves.
 
Just contradicting himself at the end. Why would we acquire two decent assets and get the 6-8 seed and do the ritual sacrifice to OKC/Clippers/Spurs? Let the youth movement grow and see if we can net a few more good pieces next year in a better FA class and a better draft class.
 
Yeah that article isn't really getting it. Our teams the last two seasons had maxed their potential, and signing Jeff Teague isn't going to get us anywhere.
 
Pretty ****ty article.

Utah could have used that cap space in ways that would have netted better assets two or three moves down the road.
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Uhh...yeah. That's exactly how we used our cap space.
 
What the writer fails I mention is the cap and the space we will have next year as well. If we did go get Teague and Bring back Sap or Jeffy then we lose are screwed in a few years with Favors, Hayward, Kanter, and Burks expiring.

What I love that Lindsay is doing is setting us up for the next few years both through the draft and on FA if we decide not to resign the core 4.
 
Mambo said:
Just contradicting himself at the end. Why would we acquire two decent assets and get the 6-8 seed and do the ritual sacrifice to OKC/Clippers/Spurs? Let the youth movement grow and see if we can net a few more good pieces next year in a better FA class and a better draft class.
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I was thrown by that, too. Complete contradiction at the end.
 
Just further proof that posters on Jazzfanz are more educated on the NBA than most people who get paid to write about it.
 
It all depends on your point of view. Lowe sees it as buying draft picks for $10 million apiece, I see it as preserving cap space and acquiring assets. It is also useless to speculate on what might have happened "down the road". I would rather position ourselves for a chance at a franchise player than play the sacrificial lamb.
 
The quality of that article was on the level of a procrastinating college student after a weekend bender. Let's slap something together because I need to turn something in. Just a dumb article and clearly lacking an insightful analysis.
 
Lowe's math isn't right either, since the Jazz are well under the cap now. If they spend up to the cap, they will have paid the difference between 90% (payroll minimum, either spent or surcharged at the end of the season) and 100% of the cap, or about $6mm. Even if they use the Room MLE (available to teams who renounce their exceptions in favor of cap space, like the Jazz), those picks will only cost about $8mm.

2 1sts in loaded drafts + 2 seconds, and 3 warm, expiring bodies to fill the roster and help the tank (with one a potential keeper) is pretty good for $8mm.
 
spycam1 said:
Just further proof that posters on Jazzfanz are more educated on the NBA than most people who get paid to write about it.
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Wrong. Zach Lowe is a stud. There's certainly room to disagree with him, but he didn't say anything totally outlandish. He's just not a complete Utah Jazz homer.
 
They paid nothing for these players. That glaring flaw in the article completely undermines it.
 
Mambo said:
Just contradicting himself at the end. Why would we acquire two decent assets and get the 6-8 seed and do the ritual sacrifice to OKC/Clippers/Spurs? Let the youth movement grow and see if we can net a few more good pieces next year in a better FA class and a better draft class.
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Agree. What he fails to see is the money has to be spent anyway, either in contracts or end-of-year bonuses. GVC explained it much better than I could have in post #11. We got expiring deals, which means outside of the additional contract costs for Hayward and Jefferson, we'll be in position to do the same again next year, acquiring players and/or picks with our cap space. PLUS we will have added a top-10, maybe even top-5 pick. In two years, Grantland will publshing an article about the "genius" of Lindsey's 2013/14 moves.
 
He completley ignores the opportunity cost of sitting Favors and Enes behind Milsap and "bit players" as he calls them. Jazz have 2 #3 draft picks that are still huge unknowns but are quickly approaching a time when the Jazz either will committ to them or will have move on.

Enes or Favors could be great, but Jazz would never know that if Maurice Speights and JJ Hickson are teaming up with Milsap for another run at the 7 spot.

He also failed to look at how teams that were behind the Jazz in the standings last year have improved during this offseason. Portland has a better roster, Minny might stay healty. Pelicans were better than their record last season and will add a pg and a better wing. The kings have talent, and are no longer hampered by ownership. I'm not sure what Dallas is going to do.


I agree with him that the 2014 pick might be overvalued. I see it as a gamble. If GSW are injured or have chemistry issues or whatever it could be very valuable. But even if GSW are healthy and good and it has less value, it is not valueless.
 
The article doesn't address the fact that before the GS deal, Utah was sitting below the salary floor and HAD to spend money. I guess they could have spent that money by chasing guys like Sap, Ellis, or Mayo, signing them to multi year deals, and making yet another run at the 8 seed. However, they chose to take on salary that is easily disposed of, gained 2 draft picks, and maintained their flexibility moving forward. You don't have to be a Jazz homer to see they did the right thing.

And as far as the 2 GS picks go, I may be in the minority but I was not that impressed with GS last year. IMO they caught a bit of lightening in a bottle last year leading up to the playoffs. They were a lower seed who got healthy at the right time and went on a decent run. Are both Bogut and Curry going to be healthy at playoff time next year? Is Igudola that great of a pick up considering that Curry and Thompson are going to eat up most of your possessions? I'm also not sold on Mark Jackson as a coach just quite yet.

I'm willing to bet that Golden State finds themselves fighting for a lower playoff seed again in 2014. The Spurs, OKC, LAC, Memphis, and Houston are all better teams. Obviously, an injury to any superstar can throw the balance of power off, but as it sits right now, GS stands as possibly the 6th best team in the West and that's IF their injury prone superstars stay healthy. Long story short: I'm not convinced that GS makes the playoffs in '14 and Utah could potentially be sitting on a powder keg of potential heading into what is supposed to be an amazing draft.

And not to look too far ahead, but by 2017 Steph Curry will be hobbling around a retirement home with fake ankles and GS will have already blown up their core and started a rebuild. (This is the Warriors we're talking about).

Utah's offseason has been nothing short of amazing.
 
And to add to my last post, Denver is better as well. That pushes GS to possibly the 7th best team in the West. I wouldn't sleep on this 2014 draft pick. It may end up being gold.
 
jazzman12 said:
And as far as the 2 GS picks go, I may be in the minority but I was not that impressed with GS last year. IMO they caught a bit of lightening in a bottle last year leading up to the playoffs. They were a lower seed who got healthy at the right time and went on a decent run. Are both Bogut and Curry going to be healthy at playoff time next year? Is Igudola that great of a pick up considering that Curry and Thompson are going to eat up most of your possessions? I'm also not sold on Mark Jackson as a coach just quite yet.

I'm willing to bet that Golden State finds themselves fighting for a lower playoff seed again in 2014. The Spurs, OKC, LAC, Memphis, and Houston are all better teams. Obviously, an injury to any superstar can throw the balance of power off, but as it sits right now, GS stands as possibly the 6th best team in the West and that's IF their injury prone superstars stay healthy. Long story short: I'm not convinced that GS makes the playoffs in '14 and Utah could potentially be sitting on a powder keg of potential heading into what is supposed to be an amazing draft.

And not to look too far ahead, but by 2017 Steph Curry will be hobbling around a retirement home with fake ankles and GS will have already blown up their core and started a rebuild. (This is the Warriors we're talking about).

Utah's offseason has been nothing short of amazing.
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Did you know the last time the Warriors made it to the playoffs in back to back seasons was 1990-91 and 1991-92 seasons? In the 21 seasons since then they have made the playoffs 3 times.

Like I said, it was a nice gamble.
 
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