GSW Draft Pick Watch

[BluesRocker]

We are going to get this pick. Don't you worry. It's feeling like destiny at this point with how close it is and how fare we have come. It's the icing on the cake for the Dwill trade.

 

[theNBAnerd]

i'm kind of starting to think, eff it, you get what you deserve.

even if golden state keeps the pick, whomever they pick 7th is going to join a team of losers coached by a guy who has little credibility with his own team because his players watched him openly give away winnable games with indefensable substitutions. even if he's a decent player to begin with, he's going to languish in mediocrity and have his growth stunted by a team who chooses when to care about winning.

then, the jazz will wind up with an 8-14 pick in 2013, and pick some guy who's going to join an established playoff team that fights hard, plays to win, and is packed with rising stars and a handful of 27-30 year old veterans still young enough to make a difference. even if he isn't a sure-fire future all-star, he'll join a team with a culture of winning and be surrounded by guys who have made their living outplaying expectations.

in other words, the greedy losers can have the pick... it won't change who they are.

 

[NCJazz]

i'm kind of starting to think, eff it, you get what you deserve.

even if golden state keeps the pick, whomever they pick 7th is going to join a team of losers coached by a guy who has little credibility with his own team because his players watched him openly give away winnable games with indefensable substitutions. even if he's a decent player to begin with, he's going to languish in mediocrity and have his growth stunted by a team who chooses when to care about winning.

then, the jazz will wind up with an 8-14 pick in 2013, and pick some guy who's going to join an established playoff team that fights hard, plays to win, and is packed with rising stars and a handful of 27-30 year old veterans still young enough to make a difference. even if he isn't a sure-fire future all-star, he'll join a team with a culture of winning and be surrounded by guys who have made their living outplaying expectations.

in other words, the greedy losers can have the pick... it won't change who they are.

Yikes. the actual truth is if they make a good pick and there guys are healthy next year they could easily fight for a 7th-8th seed. Of course that is the big IF--staying healthy. But Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Lee and Bogut is certainly a nice starting 5. Tanking was absolutely the smartest thing they could do.

 

[Craig K. Manscill]

Why is everyone so dismal about the pick? The Jazz have THREE opportunities to get the pick:

1. If Golden State beats a resting Spurs tomorrow, they automatically get the 8th pick.
2. Even if GSW lose, they're tied for the 8th pick, in which case the Jazz still have a 50/50 coin toss to determine if they get it.
3. EVEN THEN, if GSW move up to 7th, if a team jumps over them in the lottery, the Jazz get the pick and the GSW GM looks like the biggest idiot in the lottery.

I prefer the last option, great karma for a terrible franchise.

- Craig

 

[NCJazz]

Yikes. the actual truth is if they make a good pick and there guys are healthy next year they could easily fight for a 7th-8th seed. Of course that is the big IF--staying healthy. But Curry, Thompson, Barnes, Lee and Bogut is certainly a nice starting 5. Tanking was absolutely the smartest thing they could do.

The other thing is by tanking they got their young guys a lot of minutes in the second half of the season. For instance Thompson really improved with the minutes he got.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If* Curry and Bogut stay healthy. The chances of them both staying healthy is slim and even if they do, I don't see playoffs. Mark Jackson.

 

[theNBAnerd]

The other thing is by tanking they got their young guys a lot of minutes in the second half of the season. For instance Thompson really improved with the minutes he got.

yeah they have experience losing games. they have experience on how to poorly manage the clock. they have experience on how not to play 2-for-1, how to not call timeouts when they matter, etc. basically, they have a coach who for the last month has been teaching them how NOT to win the nba, and my point is that you can't just flip a switch and say, "ok, now we're going to start winning."

i can't imagine them making the playoffs next year, even when you add in a rookie. (and remember how few rookies make a substantive contribution on winning teams in year one -- this year 8 rookies posted a PER above the league average, and six of those 8 did it while getting big roles on crap teams. the only two to do it on winning teams were leonard and faried)

if we assume the suns will lose nash and fall out of contention, the Ws still have to leapfrog a very good houston team, a minnesota team that will get love and rubio back, and portland who even with its mess of injuries was five games better than GS this year... and then they STILL have to knock out one of the top eight.

 

[NCJazz]

yeah they have experience losing games. they have experience on how to poorly manage the clock. they have experience on how not to play 2-for-1, how to not call timeouts when they matter, etc. basically, they have a coach who for the last month has been teaching them how NOT to win the nba, and my point is that you can't just flip a switch and say, "ok, now we're going to start winning."

i can't imagine them making the playoffs next year, even when you add in a rookie. (and remember how few rookies make a substantive contribution on winning teams in year one -- this year 8 rookies posted a PER above the league average, and six of those 8 did it while getting big roles on crap teams. the only two to do it on winning teams were leonard and faried)

if we assume the suns will lose nash and fall out of contention, the Ws still have to leapfrog a very good houston team, a minnesota team that will get love and rubio back, and portland who even with its mess of injuries was five games better than GS this year... and then they STILL have to knock out one of the top eight.

You underestimate the Bogut.

 

[theNBAnerd]

not really. i just think you can't create a culture when you talk out different sides of your mouth. you can't do what jackson & the FO have done this year and then turn around in six months and hold guys accountable for their best effort. they've made their bed, and now they get to lie in it, whether they pick 7th or lose a coin toss.

and as far as bogut is concerned, the bucks' winning percentages starting from his rookie year to now are: .488, .341, 317, .415, .561, .427. he's not going to have some magical impact on the warriors.

 

[NCJazz]

not really. i just think you can't create a culture when you talk out different sides of your mouth. you can't do what jackson & the FO have done this year and then turn around in six months and hold guys accountable for their best effort. they've made their bed, and now they get to lie in it, whether they pick 7th or lose a coin toss.

and as far as bogut is concerned, the bucks' winning percentages starting from his rookie year to now are: .488, .341, 317, .415, .561, .427. he's not going to have some magical impact on the warriors.

A healthy Bogut will definitely help them big time. You know who he is replacing right? About the worst starting center in the league until he lost his spot.

 

[Dr. Jones]

So the coin flip is 50/50, obviously. Then what are the odds they could be pushed back to 8 if they won the flip? Just purely curious what that number, added to 50%, is .. for a total % chance we get the pick. I think it would only be fair that the tanking team continues losing .. through the flip.

 

[margodydek]

So the coin flip is 50/50, obviously. Then what are the odds they could be pushed back to 8 if they won the flip? Just purely curious what that number, added to 50%, is .. for a total % chance we get the pick. I think it would only be fair that the tanking team continues losing .. through the flip.

If GS gets the 7th pick (pre-lottery), then I think there's a 25-30% chance of someone behind them jumping into the lottery. I know there's a 8.2% chance that one of those teams ends up with the #1 pick, so you couple that with the odds of those teams getting the 2nd or 3rd, then I'd think you're looking at 25-30% chances that GS gets bumped back a spot.

As far as the total % chance we get the pick, I'm not sure. I'm not great with numbers, but I can't assume that we'd have a 75-80% chance of getting that pick, but I'd think someone here could figure that out.

 

[BYE]

So the coin flip is 50/50, obviously. Then what are the odds they could be pushed back to 8 if they won the flip? Just purely curious what that number, added to 50%, is .. for a total % chance we get the pick. I think it would only be fair that the tanking team continues losing .. through the flip.

Here's a weird graph at Basketball prospectus on the odds, but I don't understand it really. May be you can make heads or tails of it (excuse the pun): https://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2217.

Here is what Kevin Pelton said in his twitter account about the odds for the GSW:

Updated odds on GS pick (not taking into account SA playing bench): 40.9% chance of entering lottery 7th, 54.3% chance 8th, 4.8% 9th.

 

[Dr. Jones]

If GS gets the 7th pick (pre-lottery), then I think there's a 25-30% chance of someone behind them jumping into the lottery. I know there's a 8.2% chance that one of those teams ends up with the #1 pick, so you couple that with the odds of those teams getting the 2nd or 3rd, then I'd think you're looking at 25-30% chances that GS gets bumped back a spot.

As far as the total % chance we get the pick, I'm not sure. I'm not great with numbers, but I can't assume that we'd have a 75-80% chance of getting that pick, but I'd think someone here could figure that out.

That kind of answers my question. I was trying to figure out the % chance per-flip. If the flip is 50%. Then there's a, say, 25% chance an 8 - 14 moves up to 1 - 3, then the pre-flip is 75% chance we get it? Logic seems flawed to me .. but ..

 

[theNBAnerd]

So the coin flip is 50/50, obviously. Then what are the odds they could be pushed back to 8 if they won the flip? Just purely curious what that number, added to 50%, is .. for a total % chance we get the pick. I think it would only be fair that the tanking team continues losing .. through the flip.

i just made possibly my nerdiest post ever in the GSW pick watch thread outlining the % possibilities of all 4 scenarios whereby the jazz get a pick. i can copy it over here if you'd like, but the short version of the story is that i'm getting about a 66.2% overall chance that the jazz get the pick... based on assuming that the warriors have a 1/3 shot of winning vs. spurs and that cleveland has a 1/3 shot in each of its last two games.

 

[Dr. Jones]

i just made possibly my nerdiest post ever in the GSW pick watch thread outlining the % possibilities of all 4 scenarios whereby the jazz get a pick. i can copy it over here if you'd like, but the short version of the story is that i'm getting about a 66.2% overall chance that the jazz get the pick... based on assuming that the warriors have a 1/3 shot of winning vs. spurs and that cleveland has a 1/3 shot in each of its last two games.

It's worth reading .. if anyone reads this post and hasn't yet seen it.

 

[franklin]

i just made possibly my nerdiest post ever in the GSW pick watch thread outlining the % possibilities of all 4 scenarios whereby the jazz get a pick. i can copy it over here if you'd like, but the short version of the story is that i'm getting about a 66.2% overall chance that the jazz get the pick... based on assuming that the warriors have a 1/3 shot of winning vs. spurs and that cleveland has a 1/3 shot in each of its last two games.

New Jersey has to win and GSW lose or Cleveland win last two and GSW lose for a 2 way tie. Three way is still possible.


Your write up was a little confusing, so here are my numbers based on a worse case in the event of a 2 way tie. 3 way blows this all up.

There's a 10% chance of the 8th spot moving up to 1,2, or 3, so it's (.5)(.1) = 5% they both lose the flip and still move up.
There's a 90% chance of the 8th spot not moving up, so it's (.5)(.9) = 45% chance they lose the flip and don't move up.
There's a 29.5% chance of the 8-14 spot moving up to 1,2, or 3, so it's (.5)(.295) = 14.75% chance they win a flip and move down from 7th.
There's a 70.5% chance of the 8-14 spot not moving up, so it's (.5)(.705) = 35.25 % chance they win the flip and keep the pick.

14.75 + 45 = 59.75% This number gets adjusted up for whatever percent chance it is that there is not a tie, and down if there is a 3 way tie.

 

[theNBAnerd]

yeah, franklin, i factored that all into my calculation in the other thread. maybe i'll just paste it over here.

 

[franklin]

I read the one on your blog. It was a good write up but the information was a little outdated in spots and put up back when the calc was way more convoluted. Nice work there.

 

[theNBAnerd]

that was actually my bro's post, and yes, it was written several games ago so now the math is a little easier to nail down.

here's my math from the other thread.

to figure it out, we have to make some assumptions about how likely GS and cleveland are to win their remaining games, and then calculate separately the odds of the four different scenarios that result in us getting the pick:
1) GSW winning the spurs game, then not winning the lotto
2) GSW losing the spurs game, 3-way tie results in GSW 8th, then not winning the lotto
3) GSW losing the spurs game, 2-way tie results in GSW 8th, then not winning the lotto
4) GSW losing the spurs game, getting to 6th or 7th, but then getting bumped backward (which actually is comprised of three scenarios)

1) let's say they have a 1/3 chance of winning the spurs game... which in terms of accuscore predictions or vegas odds represents a pretty big underdog situation. i think that's fair. the spurs WILL be resting guys, but it's not like they'll be trying to lose. they still have homecourt in the finals to contend for. if they win, they're 8th worst with a 90% chance of staying 8-10 and not winning a top three pick. so far we're at a 30% chance of this scenario happening (.33 x .90).

2) add to that 30% odds the odds of them getting the pick with a loss, which we're saying there is a .667 chance of. to figure this we have to break it into two scenarios: GSW loses and winds up in a 3-way tie, GSW loses and winds up in a 2-way tie. so we need estimate the chances of cleveland winning out. we're talking about a .328 team who plays a home game against an inferior-but-streaking team, and then a road game against a far-superior-but-possibly-resting team. so let's say their record dictates the odds and give them a 1 in 3 chance at each game, or a .167 chance of winning both. so now there's a 66.7% chance they lose, coupled with the 16.7% chance that cleveland wins out for a 3-way tiebreaker to have a 33% chance of 8th worst where they'd have a 90% chance of keeping the pick. so this path represents an extra 3.3% (.667 x .167 x .33 x .90) chance on top of our original 30%... up to a 33.3% chance.

3) another scenario that lands us the pick is a golden state loss coupled with cleveland NOT winning out. if we assume (as we did in the last paragraphs) that GSW has a 66% chance of losing and cleveland has an 83% chance of losing at least once, then you're looking at that percentage multiplied by the resulting 50/50 coin toss with the winner of Tor/NJ, and again multiplied by the 90% chance that they don't move up from eighth. .667 x .833 x .5 x .9 = .250, so now we're up to a 58.3% chance.

4) finally, we have to account for everything going wrong and GS getting to 7th or 6th worst, but still getting bumped backward to eight or worse in the lotto. for this scenario to play out it's either:
- GS losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.167), GS wins 6 in a 3-way tiebreaker (.333) but then gets leapfrogged by two teams in the lotto (~.040). multiply all that together for a .001 chance
- GS losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.167), GS wins 7 in a 3-way tiebreaker (.333) but then gets leapfrogged by one or more team in the lotto (~.25). multiply all that together for a .009 chance.
- GS losing (.667), cleveland losing at least one (.833), GS wins 7 in a 2-way tiebreaker (.5) but then gets leapfrogged by one team in the lotto (~.25). multiply all that together for a .069 chance.
- total likelihood of GS getting to 6 or 7 but getting bumped backwards: 7.9%. our previous 58.3 plus this 7.9 means our total likelihood is 66.2%.

obviously the math changes as soon as cleveland wins/loses a game, or if we want to adjust the mathematical likelihood of GSW winning. but that's the methodology, and it says that a 2 in 3 chance is actually pretty close.