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GSW Draft Pick Watch

franklin said:
Alright Nerd, Cleveland lost so we're 59.75% worst case odds, 66% or better with your adjusted odds , and 90% best case scenario. D-will is going to be a vindictive bitch just to screw KOC (and rightfully so), but I'll take the 9:1 bet everytime.
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here are the new odds that take everything into account:

theNBAnerd said:
updated odds now that cleveland catching GSW is ruled out.

1) GSW winning the spurs game (.333), then not winning the lotto (.9) - 27.9%
2) GSW losing the spurs game (.667), 3-way tie results in GSW 8th (.0), then not winning the lotto (.9) - can't happen now 0%
3) GSW losing the spurs game (.667), 2-way tie results in GSW 8th (.5), then not winning the lotto (.9) - 30.2%
4) GSW losing the spurs game, getting to 6th or 7th, but then getting bumped backward (which actually is comprised of three scenarios)
----a) GSW losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.0), GS wins 6 in 3-way tiebreaker... can't happen
----b) GSW losing (.667), cleveland winning out (.0), GS wins 7 in 3-way tiebreaker... can't happen
----c) GSW losing (.667), cleveland losing at least one (100%), GS wins 7 in a 2-way tiebreaker (.5) but then gets leapfrogged by at least one team in the lotto (~.25) - 8.4%

so that's now a 68.225% chance that we get the pick, with the only objective thing left in that equation being the odds of GSW winning. i'm going with .333/.667, but if you think that's high or low, just plug your percentages in and re-run the math.

fwiw, spurs just signed two d-league scrubs so they can leave everybody that matters at home tomorrow. having said that, i still think .333/.667 is fair since we're talking about a team that has played .200 ball over the last 5-6 weeks and their coach appears to be blatantly leaving his best players on the bench late.
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spurs reportedly not taking duncan, parker, manu, or popovich to golden state. gary neal has not played at all tonight against the suns, danny green and kawhi leonard only played 7 minutes in the first half.

if we update GSW's likelihood of a win to 40% based on that info, then the total odds improve to 70.5% that the pick is ours. if we upgrade to 45% odds of a GS win, then we have a 72.1% shot at the pick. if we downgrade their odds to 10% per northeast, the odds of the pick slip to 60.8%.
 
theNBAnerd said:
spurs reportedly not taking duncan, parker, manu, or popovich to golden state. gary neal has not played at all tonight against the suns, danny green and kawhi leonard only played 7 minutes in the first half.

if we update GSW's likelihood of a win to 40% based on that info, then the total odds improve to 70.5% that the pick is ours. if we upgrade to 45% odds of a GS win, then we have a 72.1% shot at the pick. if we downgrade their odds to 10% per northeast, the odds of the pick slip to 60.8%.
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almost wish I had League Pass just to watch the game. It is easily going to be the worst thing to hit the airwaves since Gigli.
 
I like what I'm hearing about who the Spurs are playing right now. That is absolutely crazy that they signed two D-leaguers and that Pops is not traveling with the team. Dear me, this is as much as we can ask for from the Spurs. Suck it Jackson and win one to atone for your conduct in the Jazz locker room.
 
theNBAnerd said:
spurs reportedly not taking duncan, parker, manu, or popovich to golden state. gary neal has not played at all tonight against the suns, danny green and kawhi leonard only played 7 minutes in the first half.

if we update GSW's likelihood of a win to 40% based on that info, then the total odds improve to 70.5% that the pick is ours. if we upgrade to 45% odds of a GS win, then we have a 72.1% shot at the pick. if we downgrade their odds to 10% per northeast, the odds of the pick slip to 60.8%.
Click to expand...

I think Lacob would get on the court himself to play this game (along with the GM and Mark Jackson) before letting GSW win this game.

There's 0% chance that they'll beat the Spurs, even if the Spurs field a whole team full of cheerleaders.
 
I'm getting this wierd vibe that GS will be up by 10 with 5 minutes left in the 4th and then end up losing by 6.
 
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