How Long Before the Jazz Make the Playoffs Again?

[SoberasHotRod]

How high is the cap expected to jump over the next few seasons?

I've read it could jump to $170M or more, that would be like a $50M jump

 

[KqWIN]

I think it's possible we end up with by far the least talented team in the NBA next year. In other rebuilds we have at least started off with young players who we hoped could turn in to potential stars. Many of the packages discussed so far would bring back 0 potential stars. I'm not sure if there is another good comparison of a team that started a rebuild with so little as far as young players with potential.

Young players typically don't start playing winning basketball until year 3. Most likely our future stars are drafted in 2023 and 2024, which means they probably aren't really winning until 2026 or 2027.

I think HOU is a pretty fair comparison. They had some players like Wood and Wall (who they quickly cut off), but that team was mostly filled with borderline NBA players. This will be year 3 for them, and their over/under is at 25.5 wins.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I think HOU is a pretty fair comparison. They had some players like Wood and Wall (who they quickly cut off), but that team was mostly filled with borderline NBA players. This will be year 3 for them, and their over/under is at 25.5 wins.

Yeah, I think Houston is probably the best comparison. We should be a little better off than them based on the assets we get for both Mitchell and Gobert, but they seem at least a couple of years away still.

 

[YoungJefe]

Yeah, I think Houston is probably the best comparison. We should be a little better off than them based on the assets we get for both Mitchell and Gobert, but they seem at least a couple of years away still.

They got so lucky to land Green after they basically just gave Harden away for a meh package. But IIRC they had to tank because they lost their pick if it was outside the top 5

 

[rjfan]

There are things not to like around Danny Ainge and his appointment to the Jazz, but he is quite good at drafting, and the Jazz does good scouting and player development.

Even with a hard rebuild where we do a near total fire sale, i'd say we can get back to playoffs around 3 to 4 years with a young core that is better positioned (players and assets wise) to truly contend (problably not contending by year 3/4, but in the following years).

 

[KqWIN]

Yeah, I think Houston is probably the best comparison. We should be a little better off than them based on the assets we get for both Mitchell and Gobert, but they seem at least a couple of years away still.

Yeah I think we may be a bit better off asset wise, but in terms of winning games, we’ll probably be the same or worse. I guess it depends on how good the young players we get back from NYK. If Quickley and Toppin turn out to be very good I could see us sneaking into a playin spot with around 35 wins, but it’s more likely we’re closer to 25 wins in year 3 like HOU is.

I wonder how much engineered losing we’ll see as well. It disgusts me that this is a thing in the NBA, but OKC has definitely participated in this and I think we may end up doing the same thing. I think OKC has potential to win 35 games this year, for example, but they will likely hold out players and lose on purpose and could end up closer to 25.

I think HOU is a little different where they can only win 25 even if they are trying their hardest. I’d say we’re closer to to HOU than OKC.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, I think Houston is probably the best comparison. We should be a little better off than them based on the assets we get for both Mitchell and Gobert, but they seem at least a couple of years away still.

Each situation is so unique that it is really hard to have direct comparisons. Like Houstons outlook is a lot brighter if they take Mobley instead of Green.

It could be 2-3 years if we land a top 3 pick this year and the player is on Ja Morant's level. This draft really sets the timeline. Hit on the top 3-5 guy and one of the later picks and it accelerates things by a year or two. If you have slower developing guys or just land a good starter level guy in the top 5 its a 4-5 year process.

It also depends on the return of the Donovan deal. If one of the young players is better than they have shown you get a nice kickstart. I'd set the over under at 3.5 years for us to make the play in. 2023 offseason will really dictate whether its over or under.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think we are (will be) way ahead of teams like Houston in terms of assets to help bolster the rebuild. Houston was out a couple picks before the Harden trade and pulled in some Brooklyn picks that are solid. We will have like +8 picks over the next 7 years before we sell off the spare parts and rent out cap space. Some of those picks are far out but can be used to move up from picks in the teens/twenties into the lottery or to acquire win-now players.

 

[KqWIN]

1:1 comparisons are never going to exist anyways, but MEM's situation is just on a different planet IMO. Their "tanking" years that yielded JJJ and Morant were both not planned. Gasol and Conley were on the roster to begin both years. They got Morant after winning 34 games, which is not the starting point we're looking at all. It is an interesting situation to look at nonetheless. JJJ and Morant are obviously the catalysts to their championship aspirations, but it's incredible how many successive good moves in a row hit on to get to the playoffs.

They got good rotation players (Val and Allen) from trading Gasol and Conley. They made two great signings in Anderson and Jones. They were crazy good at drafting and landed Brooks, Melton, Clarke, Bane, and Tillman later in the draft. Like I said, Morant and JJJ are the key to their championship aspirations, but the key to them making the playoffs so quickly was having 10+ good rotation players. Their work on the margins was incredible. I think hitting on those moves is key to any type of building/rebuild.

Even if we landed a JJJ-Morant type combo in back to back drafts, you don't get to the playoffs without having a strong team behind them. If HOU had Mobley instead of Green, for example, I think they would be in a much better spot long term....but not actually that much closer to making the playoffs. The Lakers have LeBron and AD, but because their team is so **** around them they still couldn't make it.

 

[KqWIN]

Another team that should be mentioned more as far as successful rebuilds is CLE. They had 3 tank years and in the 4 year were able to rocket up from the bottom of the league and into the playoffs. Garland-Okoro-Mobley was a really impressive string of drafting and the Allen trade was amazing value for them.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Another team that should be mentioned more as far as successful rebuilds is CLE. They had 3 tank years and in the 4 year were able to rocket up from the bottom of the league and into the playoffs. Garland-Okoro-Mobley was a really impressive string of drafting and the Allen trade was amazing value for them.

No rebuild is exactly the same, but the Cleveland/Houston ones are probably the best guide Utah has for a return to relevancy. I don’t think DA has any choice but to strip things bare and start over. It’s a painful process, but the asset situation in Utah as h has been so mismanaged that it has to happen to move forward in any meaningful way.

 

[KqWIN]

No rebuild is exactly the same, but the Cleveland/Houston ones are probably the best guide Utah has for a return to relevancy. I don’t think DA has any choice but to strip things bare and start over. It’s a painful process, but the asset situation in Utah as h has been so mismanaged that it has to happen to move forward in any meaningful way.

I think so....and HOU hasn't even done anything yet. They could be in for another 2-3 until they make the playoffs, and it could be longer. I think CLE is about as good as you can ask for, and that still puts the Jazz 4 years away from the playoffs.