I figure 25%, based on wikipedia listed lottery odds.
They have less balls (no pun intended) than the typical #7. You have to factor in the increased chance give. To the #8 from more balls and combine that with everyone else's chances of moving up then subtract out GS's chances of moving up.
New Jersey's pick is the 6th pick, right? How can they jump Golden State?
Last year, we had NJ pick and lost tie breaker to Kings. Granted we got fortunate with the ping pong balls later, but as far as the toss, once again we lost it:
https://www.nba.com/2011/news/04/15/draft.ties/index.html
?
Year before - 2010 - we had Knicks pick, and lost tie breaker toss to Clippers.
So, I can think of 4 coin tosses we lost in last few years and 0 won. Are we going to go 0-5 today, like Raja Bell did last night? It's not that easy to lose 5 coin tosses in a row. Takes special skill that only we possess.
I call huge BS on everyone that is saying "tanking" is unfair to the fans. To a degree yes, but it really blows my mind that people even showed up to the GS/SA game last night. Why would you pay money to go watch your team try to lose? If a team is blatantly tanking, but fans are still showing up, it doesn't give them a ton of motivation to try and win.
I think it was 1999 (not sure) the Spurs and Jazz tied with best record so in the second round they had a coin toss and the Jazz loss. SA went on to pick Manu. So it is already 0-5.