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Its Time to Tank

Bawse Dawg said:
Who do you guys love so much at 4 that you would give up a ~5% chance of Wemby and ~15% chance at a top 3 pick?
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I just simply think that the odds are that we will end up with worse pick than 4. So I would take 4 knowing that it is likely better than what we will get. Its that simple.
 
fishonjazz said:
I just simply think that the odds are that we will end up with worse pick than 4. So I would take 4 knowing that it is likely better than what we will get. Its that simple.
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I don’t agree with that logic at all. We might take the same player at 4 that we would get at 8-10. There is no obvious pick. Giving up not terrible odds at Wemby Scoot or Miller for that seems silly.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
I don’t agree with that logic at all. We might take the same player at 4 that we would get at 8-10. There is no obvious pick. Giving up not terrible odds at Wemby Scoot or Miller for that seems silly.
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Yep. We disagree on this.
 
The only reason to take the #4 pick guaranteed is if you think Amen is a super-star or if you think there is a possibility Miller drops to 4 because the team at 3 thinks Amen is a super-star.


But even then, I would be hesitant to even give up a 1% chance at Wemby.
 
Jaanipoeg said:
As a hypothetical, would you take a guaranteed 4th overall pick for the Jazz this year right now? Would be an above average outcome for a team that is at absolute best going to finish 6th worst and most likely 8-10. Would you take the option of guaranteed choosing your favorite of Jarace Walker/Thompsons/Whitemore/etc. but lose any hope of jumping to get Wemby/Scoot/Brandon Miller?
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That is a toughy... and imo I think the decision might change if I knew we would finish 10th or 8th. The hypothetical of calling the shot now is tough because I think we are more likely to finish 11th than 7th or 8th. I would just take it I guess. Its a toss up though...

Reason being the jump from 10 to #4 would cost at least one unprotected pick... so maybe you trade back... but then there is also the chance a team does something really stupid... and stupid teams tend to end up in the top part of the lotto. One team decides they love Amen, Cam Whitmore, or something... and you get a chance at Scoot or Miller. You are also in range to jump up... say a team looks at Amen and Scoot as similar level prospects and you are able to move #4 and a pick or two to jump up. Some team might be weirded out by the Miller gun thing and decide to slide back a spot to avoid the whole thing... while getting a pick.

If it goes chalk I think Amen is a great prospect or you could trade back to 8 or so with someone that wants Amen or Whitmore or something.

This is a tough one though.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
The only reason to take the #4 pick guaranteed is if you think Amen is a super-star or if you think there is a possibility Miller drops to 4 because the team at 3 thinks Amen is a super-star.


But even then, I would be hesitant to even give up a 1% chance at Wemby.
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There is more to it than that. The #4 pick is not the same as 8-10... you aren't getting the same guy. Is it a meaningful difference... I think so. There is also just the numbers... Say we land 10... you have a 10% chance to improve your draft position... 4% it stays the same... and 86% chance of dropping a meaningful amount of spots.

It also puts you in range to maneuver... and we have assets to maneuver and all it takes is a little sliver of doubt and you might find an opportunity. Say Wemby and Scoot go 1 and 2... and Indiana or San Antonio land #3... those teams can be weird/conservative and the Miller gun stuff might be enough for them to go Whitmore (indy) or Amen (SA needs a pg of the future). So you are right there to catch Miller should he slide.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
There is more to it than that. The #4 pick is not the same as 8-10... you aren't getting the same guy. Is it a meaningful difference... I think so. There is also just the numbers... Say we land 10... you have a 10% chance to improve your draft position... 4% it stays the same... and 86% chance of dropping a meaningful amount of spots.

It also puts you in range to maneuver... and we have assets to maneuver and all it takes is a little sliver of doubt and you might find an opportunity. Say Wemby and Scoot go 1 and 2... and Indiana or San Antonio land #3... those teams can be weird/conservative and the Miller gun stuff might be enough for them to go Whitmore (indy) or Amen (SA needs a pg of the future). So you are right there to catch Miller should he slide.
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Yeah, I'm not throwing away any chance at Wemby personally.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
There is also just the numbers... Say we land 10... you have a 10% chance to improve your draft position... 4% it stays the same... and 86% chance of dropping a meaningful amount of spots.
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I'm not following this part. If we end up with the 10th worst record wouldn't we have a 66% of staying at 10 and about 20% chance of dropping?
 
I just have no confidence in anyone outside of the top 3 at being true franchise changers to take the 4th pick over a chance at a game changer.
 
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