If we are taking the 4th pick in this scenario then top 3 is 10% #4 is 4% and 10th or worse is 86% chance.... if we are 10th or 11th I don't care all that much... going from 4 to 10+ is the big drop.
I’m with Cy on this one. Even though the odds are super long, I’d still rather take those odds on a shot at a franchise caliber, than a guaranteed pick of a 3rd tier player. Especially since I easily have at least 7 guys in that tier that I’d be happy with at #10.
You aren't throwing it away in this scenario.. you are cashing in on the low chance you can move up into the top 3... you are getting a good value by taking the bird in the hand.
Do you have a chance at Wemby with this hypothetical trade? No, you dont. It's throwing away a shot at Wemby.
I might come around to that thinking.. not sure what a GM would do though. While some might break their boards down into tiers... I am guessing their rankings are a bit more delineated than ours.
You didn't throw it away... you redeemed it for value and certainty.
The other side of it would be you gave away the #4 pick for some penny stocks.
Semantics. You're throwing it away.
Actually you very clearly are throwing it away. You go from having a chance at Wemby to no chance which is the definition of throwing it away. The only way it even slightly makes sense is if you have another player identified at 4 that you think is a future star. That definitely isn't the situation for me. I probably have 6 guys jumbled together after the top 3 and have no clue who is the favorite at this point. It pretty much changes daily.
Fish, you have once again outdone yourself.
If a team wants to trade back. In this draft there may be no difference between 4 and 10. That is how tightly I have players bundled right now and it is simply in the eye of the beholder.
Of course he doesn't see them as the same and prefers 4 over 10. Would he prefer it enough to give up any shot at jumping into the top 3? I highly doubt that.
Its not the definition of throwing it away. If I received a stock option for $10k and sold it for $100k did I throw it away or did I redeem it for value? Now if it turns out I could have waited it out and it was worth $1M... I still did not throw away a shot at $1M... I cashed out that shot for $90k in profit.
No. The question was are you throwing away the opportunity to get Wemby no matter how slight the chance? If you do the trade for the 4th pick then obviously you are throwing any opportunity of Wemby. No one is going to argue with you that trading 10 for 4 means you are getting great value. That was never the question.
Its more narrow than that... you might find this group saying there are 6 or more guys... but among GMs it would almost surely be Amen, Whitmore, or Walker... at this point anyway.
