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Its Time to Tank

Handlogten's Heros said:
Yes and making the playoffs has what benefit long term?
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Im all for the high pick but playoff experience for players and seeing if Hardys system holds water in a series has value.

But still... give me the pick. Lets do playoffs next year when we have at least a dark horse level squad.
 
Korisfani said:
Maybe something, maybe nothing.

But for the Jazz to now tank, that would have to come from Hardy and the players. The FO did what it did and their part is done - whatever you decide to call it. But to call for tanking, is to call for Hardy and the team to do it.


I didn't. They edited their message just as I was responding to it. The original message sounded much more as if the odds are better than thought, because some teams have happened to be lucky.
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Players and coaches generally don’t participate in tanking… it’s a front office activity… and there is very little they can do at this point.

Hardy may adjust rotations at the suggestion of the front office… but it isn’t them going and saying “please lose more”. It’s them saying they’d like to see Ochai featured more prominently or would like to see what Juzang and Fontechio can provide, or we’d like to reward Udoka for being a good soldier, or we need to keep playing Rudy to make sure he doesn’t complain and maybe has some trade value this offseason, or Frank Jackson deserves some time for participating in our g league program…

You get the hint.

The FO also works with training staff I’m guessing and may have some influence there… but would be more like “let’s get sexton at 110% before putting him out there” or “give JC a little extra time to heal from his thumb injury… no need risking making it worse.”
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Yes and making the playoffs has what benefit long term? Winning the lotto has what benefit long term? I would willingly give up a 100% shot at going to the playoffs for a 5%-10% shot at the guys that will go 1-3 in this draft. If you land 8-10 then so be it... going from 12-13 to 8-10 has a trade value of 1-2 good first round picks... its meaningful.
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Fine enough argument. But if we had this mentality post all star break we could be setup with a top 5 pick which for me is VASTLY more valuable than a top 10 pick. It just doesn't seem to be the mentality of the team.

Feels like a classic, best for the players vs. best for the management situation. The players are screwing it all up. Whatchagonnado?
 
The Jazz Wonderbra said:
Fine enough argument. But if we had this mentality post all star break we could be setup with a top 5 pick which for me is VASTLY more valuable than a top 10 pick. It just doesn't seem to be the mentality of the team.

Feels like a classic, best for the players vs. best for the management situation. The players are screwing it all up. Whatchagonnado?
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Yeah... i think the transaction cycles kinda dictated the timing. We weren't going to sell off players with the ONLY purpose being to make us worse. And teams just don't do a lot of deals before the deadline. The next two games will tell us exactly where our head is at. The OKC OT win was a little unfortunate. I think it may have limited our ceiling (floor?) to 8 or 9 instead of 7.

Players will always play hard and try to win. Coaches will adjust rotations maybe a little but they won't intentionally mess the players up. I think we saw a small change in attitude from the OKC game to the SA game. Hardy pulled the plug on THT as he was slowly dragging us down in the OKC game. He rode with him to the end in the SA game. No one can say definitively that is "tanking" and it might not be... but that's the types of things a coach could do.
 
LogGrad98 said:
You ignored the 2nd part of his comments. A couple of years ago the league revamped the lottery odds. He was saying we saw higher-seeded teams ending up in the top lottery spots over the years, but now with the new revamped odds we will see even more late lottery teams end up in the top 3, so a lottery spot within the top 10 has greater value now, from a draft perspective.
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Also teams can now jump into the top 4 when in years past it was only the top 3. Obviously we need a few years of data but I bet 10 years from now we see a team 7 or later jump into that top 4 almost every year. This last year it was the kings jumping from 7 to 4. 2021 it was the raptors jumping from 7 to 4 as well. 2020 we had the bulls jumping from 7 to 4. 2019 was the first year with the new odds and we had the griz, pelicans and mavs tied for the 7-9 spots. The pelicans and griz ended up jumping to 1 and 2. Pretty crazy that every year the 7 spot has jumped into the top 4.
 
sip said:
Obviously we need a few years of data but I bet 10 years from now we see a team 7 or later jump into that top 4 almost every year.
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Why would we need years of data when the odds are set? (Unless you think Silver is tampering with the lottery.)

It's about 1/4 chance that no team seeded 7-14 will get into the top4 and 3/4 that one of them will.

(Bit of a simplification as the odds for each team aren't independent of each other (as multiple teams can't get the same pick), but the lottery procedure doesn't effect them that much.)
 
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Korisfani said:
It's about 1/4 chance that no team seeded 7-14 will get into the top4 and 3/4 that one of them will.

(Bit of a simplification as the odds for each team aren't independent of each other (as multiple teams can't get the same pick), but the lottery procedure doesn't effect them that much.)
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Couldn't rest with leaving things open like that... Although won't go through all of the permutations.

Let's consider the worst case for the 7-14 seeds: the 6 seed gets the 1st pick, the 5 seed gets 2nd etc.

In that case the chances of the seeds 3-6 getting all the top4 picks are 21,7 % and thus the chance of at least one of the 7-14 seeds nabbing at least one of the top4 picks 78,3 %. And that's the worst case. We can say that there's at least 4/5 chance of one of them landing a top4 pick in any given lottery.
 
If we end up 8th we have a 26.2% chance of jumping into the top-4. I think we end up around 7/8/9.
 
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