Jackpotting Around Podcast: Episode 8 - To Convey Or Not To Convey and Let’s Start A Discussion About Collin Sexton

[Handlogten's Heros]

@Elizah Huge @Handlogten's Heros do a pod and invite a jazzfanzer on who is pro convey and debate them first take style.

We tried to find someone on Twitter. I think most on this board would be pretty firmly in the Team Keep the Pick camp.

 

[Elizah Huge]

If you would have prefaced the segment with that, I would have been far less disappointed. Instead I got "Definitive Discussion" thrown at me and I thought I was in for a discussion that talked about good Sexton was, then actually confronted itself with tough questions, but I didnt. I got an appreciation talk and "How isnt everyone super excited?" when the reason why people arent excited because the modus operandi of the Jazz informs us he is likely to get dealt at some point.

You’ve been telling me he was as good as gone the last two seasons and yet he’s still here.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I think I enjoy the conversation on here after the Pod as much as I enjoy listening. So thanks for posting on here and being willing to discuss.

I think the scenario where we don't have a 2026 pick, but wish we did for a swap is much higher than Elizah seems to think, but still think it's best to get a top 10 pick this year. At this point we have a good idea on who will be available in the 8-10 range and I personally like a lot of those guys. I think it's possible the FO has more information including next year's class and might disagrees though.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I think I enjoy the conversation on here after the Pod as much as I enjoy listening. So thanks for posting on here and being willing to discuss.

I think the scenario where we don't have a 2026 pick, but wish we did for a swap is much higher than Elizah seems to think, but still think it's best to get a top 10 pick this year. At this point we have a good idea on who will be available in the 8-10 range and I personally like a lot of those guys. I think it's possible the FO has more information including next year's class and might disagrees though.

I think the chance we wish we had a pick in 2026 to swap is slim to none vs getting a top-10 pick this year. How good of a pick swap would it have to be to be worth giving up a top-10 pick and what are the odds of that happening as well? Very low.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I think the chance we wish we had a pick in 2026 to swap is slim to none vs getting a top-10 pick this year. How good of a pick swap would it have to be to be worth giving up a top-10 pick and what are the odds of that happening as well? Very low.

You made it sound like it was unfathomable. What are the chances the #9 pick doesn't pan out, what are the chances we are bad again in 2025, and what are the chances we are better in 2026 than either MIN or CLE.

If your point is that all of those things happening is low, and not worth giving up on a top 10 pick, then I agree. I just don't agree that it's infinitely small as all of those things have a decent chance of happening.

 

[Elizah Huge]

You made it sound like it was unfathomable. What are the chances the #9 pick doesn't pan out, what are the chances we are bad again in 2025, and what are the chances we are better in 2026 than either MIN or CLE.

If your point is that all of those things happening is low, and not worth giving up on a top 10 pick, then I agree. I just don't agree that it's infinitely small as all of those things have a decent chance of happening.

Yeah, after I gave it a listen earlier today I think I was a little harsh on the odds of it happening.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think I enjoy the conversation on here after the Pod as much as I enjoy listening. So thanks for posting on here and being willing to discuss.

I think the scenario where we don't have a 2026 pick, but wish we did for a swap is much higher than Elizah seems to think, but still think it's best to get a top 10 pick this year. At this point we have a good idea on who will be available in the 8-10 range and I personally like a lot of those guys. I think it's possible the FO has more information including next year's class and might disagrees though.

And that is kind of why I said "this is a valid reason". This is fair but I do think the chances a top 10 pick this year far exceeds the value of what that swap would be are fairly low but not zero. Like there is a potential for a catastrophe there but its like a 5% or less type of deal. But yeah we buy insurance to protect ourselves against low probability things like this so its a valid fear.

I also think keeping the pick is more advantageous to the "straddle the fence" strategy we have. If we keep the pick and things go south this summer or we get bit by the injury bug I think you can tank it and it makes the path just a little more profitable. If you want to use the pick to make you better now in a trade.... then send a worse pick in 2025 it works with that route. If the FO really loves next year's draft I actually think a full tank is a better route than conveying the pick this year to hope you get the 12-15th or something pick next year.

 

[infection]

You made it sound like it was unfathomable. What are the chances the #9 pick doesn't pan out, what are the chances we are bad again in 2025, and what are the chances we are better in 2026 than either MIN or CLE.

If your point is that all of those things happening is low, and not worth giving up on a top 10 pick, then I agree. I just don't agree that it's infinitely small as all of those things have a decent chance of happening.

This is a similar feeling to how I think about the ‘27 Lakers pick. There’s a non-zero (and not insignificant) chance that it’s a second rounder.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You made it sound like it was unfathomable. What are the chances the #9 pick doesn't pan out, what are the chances we are bad again in 2025, and what are the chances we are better in 2026 than either MIN or CLE.

If your point is that all of those things happening is low, and not worth giving up on a top 10 pick, then I agree. I just don't agree that it's infinitely small as all of those things have a decent chance of happening.

Yeah no idea on the math but I'd guess its like a 5% chance all of that happens and the Wolves or Cavs are in the bottom 10 and we are not... then it would really hit the fan if they landed the #1 pick which is like a 4-5% chance on its own.

I think the most likely scenario is we keep the pick and next year are firmly in the play in mix and give the 12th-15th pick next year to the Thunder.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

This is a similar feeling to how I think about the ‘27 Lakers pick. There’s a non-zero (and not insignificant) chance that it’s a second rounder.

But if that happens, assuming the second rounder is their own pick it will be an early second rounder, which according to HH is a late first.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is a similar feeling to how I think about the ‘27 Lakers pick. There’s a non-zero (and not insignificant) chance that it’s a second rounder.

Right but lets say they tank their faces off to the worst record. 48% chance we get the 5th pick or a pick in the 30s. I would take that over a guarantee we get the 18th pick or something like that. I know the Lakers could also rig it so they are 14th and win the lotto... I still think we trust the math (not like Quin who didn't get the math right).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

But if that happens, assuming the second rounder is their own pick it will be an early second rounder, which according to HH is a late first.

I feel seen.