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Discussion in 'Utah Jazz' started by Saint Cy of JFC, Jun 5, 2019.
You mean Torry Ellis?
So you want him to lose out on a year of earnings? He isnt that good. He would have likely been in the same position if he stayed. Maybe he gets better and would become a first round pick, but maybe he doesnt.
He's a young athletic PG without a ton of skill. He was smart to get out early as possible and start earning.
And 300K in a year puts you in what, the top 5% of yearly earnings in America? That's life changing for a lot of people.
Plus dudes can make great money overseas. If he lands an NBA minimum deal this year that’s a **** ton of money. The stay in school crowd always puzzles me...
It's a cultural thing. Like, if someone stays in school, they're guaranteed a better career, rather than a worthless degree and a lot of wasted opportunity.
delayed gratification/bigger picture dude. he would've definitely been drafted with a better year and more usage at arizona. he's in a field that he can't work in until he's 65 like most regular jobs. was stupid of him to come out early, pure and simple. that 300k (and i don't think it's even that much) is over 2 years (and pre-tax) and he doesn't have anything guaranteed beyond that. post-tax he maybe got 200 of that; it's temporarily life changing but i doubt he has saved or invested much of that given that he bought his mom a rover as I noted. shortsighted as f*ck.
there's nothing puzzling about it and it's not cultural for me as well. it's purely about an investment in time of a second college year that he should've used to maximize his potential draft position. this is not me telling zion, rj, or ja morant to go back to school. this is a kid who was clearly not going to be drafted after a subpar freshman year. if it was his sophomore or junjior year, then i would agree 100% with him leaving as he would have nothing left to prove or try to gain at that point. look at all the guards drafted in 2018. he would've had a chance to definitely be on that list, have better draft positioning, and likely better chance at sticking. he's going to end up bouncing around the gleague and then settling for overeas. that's cool if all he cares about is hooping and making a little money, but if he wanted to stick in the league and maximize nba dollars, it's clear the right decision would've been to go back to school for 1 more year. i mean, sh!t, even our own rookie was a first rounder after 4 years at duke (although he probably was a first rounder whenever he came out, but was ranked similarly in highschool to simmons). look at other guys like luke kennard, divincenzo, josh okogie, etc...
While it's difficult to verify experimentally, the mere fact of getting older also hurts his draft profile.
i just gave plenty of examples of "older" or non-freshmen guys getting drafted recently and there's alot more if I included 2nd round guys. simmons would've only been 20 at the time of the 2018 draft if he just waited and (likely) improved his sophomore year. he likely would'e parlayed that into a late first round pick or early 2nd. there was no legit reason to leave other than him not wanting to be in school and/or just trying to get paid ASAP regardless if at a non-nba level. for f*cks sake, other than grayson on the jazz, donovan is someone who waited another year rather than leaving earlier. the age argument doesn't fly here, it was a very short-sighted decision from him unless again he just purely hated the academic side of things. Not to mention that zona probably paid for him to be there, but that's another bag of worms.
Sure, there are exceptions to the trend. Doesn't change what I said at all.
i don't think that trend is very legit it all, it's just that we've been conditioned in this 1 and done age to think that a player 21 or older can't improve or is somehow less valuable than a 19-20 y/o. if you were talking about a junior or senior simmons, then i would agree, but not a freshman who had a bad year and yet decided he was nba ready. even if he didn't have an amazing sophomore year, he would've been young enough to still ride the "potential" wave.
if zion stayed until his senior year at duke, he would still be the number 1 pick. talent/ability is still talent/ability at any age, it's just that as a player gets older he can be more scrutinized and can't hold onto potential for his draft stock.
It's not about us, it's about the drafting tendencies of NBA GMs. Older players get lower draft spots for similar production. Staying in school worsens your position if you don't improve considerably.
Yeah, so that mini camp happened.
James Michael McAdoo went from a lottery selection to undrafted by staying in school. He did get a ring from the Ws though.
younger players who had as poor numbers/performance as simmons did also get worse draft position or go undrafted. the youth/age issue is one of my most hated draft arguments. you're more likely to find a star in the young supremely talented players, but there's also a lot of busts due to this drafting tendency of assuming young players will get better or have more potential no matter how mediocre their freshmen year is. getting to the money fastest is most important when you're a consensus top 20-25 pick, but the most important thing is getting a 2nd contract. most top 5-7 ranked highschool freshman are no brainers, its the other ones that assume they have to leave that concern me as it regards to their nba longevity. guys like simmons, marquis teague, archie goodwin, etc flame out, but then you have a guy like pj washington who has helped himself alot. similarly, going back to allen, he could've been a late first rounder after his freshman year, then came back and had a dominant sophomore year that would've had him easily in the lottery. same for luke kennard and donovan after their sophomore years. again, there's plenty of other examples; there's a counter to my argument but also alot to counter to yours.
mcadoo had a decent enough freshman year with enough hype that he should've come out. same for guys like harrison barnes or miles bridges, but they still went lottery after their sophomore seasons. kobi simmons is a different story in terms of his production and highschool ranking/hype. and for every guy that stayed too long, there's others that helped themselves by staying. it's certainly not an exact science, and i'm all for guys leaving early and getting paid when they've been able to maximize their draft position. simmons had ALOT to gain by going back to school. someone like daniel gafford is one that should've left. someone like tre jones will increase his draft position to potentially lottery rather than late first by showing better shooting/offensive game. it is again an inexact science, but if i'm a late first or early 2nd guy as a freshman, i'm working my *** off and going back to school.
What evidence says he would have? He's been a pro for 2 years and not developed greatly. Why is Arizona going to make him a first rounder? You are just guessing and it's a bad guess. He took the smart route
inexact science basically. i don't have evidence that he would've been better than he is now, but another year to at least potentially look better and improve his draft position is what i'm harping on.
Plenty of players improve and dont get drafted higher.
Take UCLA dudes like Jaylen Hands and Kris Wilkes. They both went back, got better, and still arent first round picks. Each of them lost career earnings not leaving school. Your chances of becoming a first round pick dont improve by staying in school.
The guy drafted in the pick right after Grayson Allen, Chandler Hutchison, is a good example of staying in school. His first two years of college he rode pine backing up an Australian. The Aussie left and this guy blew up and has guaranteed money for awhile.