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Jazz players offensive output next season

ghsartin

ghsartin

Well-Known Member
Greetings, fellow jazzfanz!

About ten days ago, when it became clearer to me that the Jazz were not going to make more important moves this offseason, I began to wonder about the offensive output with this newly configured roster.

Generally, I think the pace will be a little faster, since the Jazz were dead last in the league last season - let's say up from 91.0 to 93.0 (GSW had 99.0). I also expect a slight increase in the overall FG% - the Jazz were 15th in eFG% and 18th in FG%. That being said, it seems clear to me that playing time will probably be more evenly divided, especially among guards/wings. Also, there is the question of usage rate. Since there are more scorers now (Hill and Johnson), Hayward is probably going to be asked to carry the offensive load a little less often; same with Hood.

I've crunched some numbers, did a lot of guesswork. To me, the results will serve as a frame of reference during the season. Hopefully some of you will present your expectations/predictions as well.

HAYWARD - 34 mpg, .455 fg%, 15.0 fga, 18.0 ppg
FAVORS - 34 mpg, .525 fg%, 14.2 fga, 17.5 ppg
HOOD - 28.0 mpg, .445 fg%, 11.1 fga, 13.5 ppg
HILL - 28.0 mpg, .455 fg%, 9.7 fga, 11.5 ppg
GOBERT - 33.0 mpg, .550 fg%, 6.8 fga, 10.5 ppg
JOHNSON - 24.0 mpg, .455 fg%, 8.9 fga, 10.0 ppg
BURKS - 20.0 mpg, .430 fg%, 7.8 fga, 9.5 ppg
LYLES - 21.0 mpg, .455 fg%, 7.7 fga, 8.5 ppg
EXUM - 17.0 mpg, .390 fg%, 4.7 fga, 5.0 ppg
DIAW - 15.0 mpg, .490 fg%, 3.6 fga, 4.5 ppg
NETO - 14.0 mpg, .455 fg%, 3.4 fga, 4.0 ppg
MACK - 10.0 mpg, .445 fg%, 3.3 fga, 3.5 ppg
WITHEY - 10.0 mpg, .550 fg%, 2.4 fga, 3.0 ppg
 
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I bet that the bottom 3 on that list rarely see the court except in garbage time or if injuries arise. Also, it's a contract year for Gordon so I doubt his PPG goes down. I think we will have 10 rotation guys and the rest will only step on the floor as needed.

Hayward - 22 ppg
Hood - 18 ppg
Favors - 17 ppg
Hill - 10 ppg
Gobert - 10 ppg
Burks - 12 ppg
Johnson - 11 ppg
Lyles - 9 ppg
Exum - 6 ppg
Diaw - 4 ppg
 
hawkeye said:
I bet that the bottom 3 on that list rarely see the court except in garbage time or if injuries arise. Also, it's a contract year for Gordon so I doubt his PPG goes down. I think we will have 10 rotation guys and the rest will only step on the floor as needed.

Hayward - 22 ppg
Hood - 18 ppg
Favors - 17 ppg
Hill - 10 ppg
Gobert - 10 ppg
Burks - 12 ppg
Johnson - 11 ppg
Lyles - 9 ppg
Exum - 6 ppg
Diaw - 4 ppg
Click to expand...

That's 119 points per game for just 10 players. Obviously injuries happen but c'mon.
 
Cunning Linguist said:
That's 119 points per game for just 10 players. Obviously injuries happen but c'mon.
Click to expand...

Obviously they don't all score their average every single night. If you look at all of our players stats from last year we would have been scoring 120+ every game if that's how it worked.
 
hawkeye said:
Obviously they don't all score their average every single night. If you look at all of our players stats from last year we would have been scoring 120+ every game if that's how it worked.
Click to expand...

I realize that. But add in Ingles, Mack, Neto, Withey, and whomever else, and we're looking at probably 130/night. I don't know, maybe you're right.
 
Cunning Linguist said:
I realize that. But add in Ingles, Mack, Neto, Withey, and whomever else, and we're looking at probably 130/night. I don't know, maybe you're right.
Click to expand...

That's not how it works. He just said that if you add up the players last year they would score 120 per night. It's reasonable to expect about 5 more points per game with increased tempo and improvement. 130 ppg from all the players totals does not mean he expects the jazz to score that. It means the efficiency and pace will improve.

As for what the team will average per night, that is a completely separate discussion from the one proposed in this thread.
 
Golden state warriors players per game averages from last year are around 137 per game. They didn't score that per game though.


By the way there is no way Hayward scores less than 20 ppg this season. It's going to be his best season yet in scoring % and volume.

Lyles will impress, and score more than 10 ppg. Hood will improve as well as favors. These kids are not taking a step back this year.
 
hawkeye said:
Obviously they don't all score their average every single night. If you look at all of our players stats from last year we would have been scoring 120+ every game if that's how it worked.
Click to expand...
Even taking this into account, 7 players averaging double figures is highly unlikely. To put that into perspective...the highest scoring team in NBA History (1981-82 Denver Nuggets) averaged 126.5 ppg and they only had 6 players average double figures. Even the record setting Golden State Warriors only had 4 players average double figures last season.
 
Why does everyone automatically think Hayward's scoring increases just because "it's a contract year"? Have we forgotten that he's had a contract year before, and played like ****. Also, we need to remember that the Jazz have added better scorers to the team with Hill and Johnson, Burks/Hood will play more*, Favors plays an entire season*, etc. And for 6 years in the league now, Hayward always starts the season in a slump and gets better as the season goes on, I don't see this changing.

Taking everything into account, I think 18.0 ppg sounds about right for Hayward.

*crossing fingers
 
hawkeye said:
I bet that the bottom 3 on that list rarely see the court except in garbage time or if injuries arise. Also, it's a contract year for Gordon so I doubt his PPG goes down. I think we will have 10 rotation guys and the rest will only step on the floor as needed.

Hayward - 19 ppg
Hood - 15 ppg
Favors - 16 ppg
Hill - 11 ppg
Gobert - 11 ppg
Burks - 12 ppg
Johnson - 12 ppg
Lyles - 9 ppg
Exum - 8 ppg
Diaw - 5 ppg
Click to expand...

My own.
 
Hayward: 24 PPG
Hood: 19 PPG
Favors: 15 PPG
Hill: 10 PPG
Gobert: 9 PPG
Burks: 13 PPG
JJ: 6 PPG
Lyles: 5 PPG
Exum: 5 PPG
Diaw: 5 PPG
 
Hayward- 34 MPG, 14.5 FGA, 44 FG%, 19 PPG
Favors- 31 MPG, 12.0 FGA, 52 FG%, 16 PPG
Hood- 31 MPG, 12.5 FGA, 43 FG%, 15 PPG
Hill- 28 MPG, 10.0 FGA, 45 FG%, 12 PPG
Gobert- 32 MPG, 6.5 FGA, 58 FG%, 10 PPG
Burks- 17 MPG, 8.5 FGA, 43 FG%, 10 PPG
Lyles- 17 MPG, 8.0 FGA, 45 FG%, 10 PPG
Johnson- 16 MPG, 8.0 FGA, 45 FG%, 9.5 PPG
Exum- 22 MPG, 7.5 FGA, 39 FG%, 9 PPG
Diaw- 14 MPG, 4.5 FGA, 49 FG%, 4.5 PPG
 
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