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Jazz Suns trade

Good trade. Jazz has so many average/at most borderline all star ceiling young guys already and it's unlikely to get any significantly better with those 25, 27, 29 late firsts. In 2031, Jazz is projected to be a deep playoff team, who will also going to have the possible studs from -25 and -26 drafts in their 2nd contracts, as well as any of these current players on rookie contracts. At that point, it's really great having picks to add talent for the team, or if lucky, getting another star from the draft. And Jazz has still a load of picks in the future after this trade, to try acquire all star player via trade. Good trade.
 
hgb said:
The '25 and '27 Cavs picks are definitely mid, but I certainly wouldn't call the Wolves picks mid. Not the '29 Cavs pick either.
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Right now the Cavs 25 is not mid, but awful and almost worthless. It's the #30 pick, which is less valuable than an early 2nd. The Cavs 27 is also clearly below average. At the time of the Mitchell trade, they were mid, but the Cavs have overperformed their expectation and look to do so for a few years still.

The Minny picks might grow in value. Or they might also plummet, mainly if Ant figures everything out and steps up to the SGA level of MVP candidacy.
 
Bottom line: the ability of the picks that the Jazz traded out had a 0% chance of hitting top-3*and the pick they got back has a (higher-than-average) chance of hitting top-3 right now. Furthermore, there is a long runway to cashing in high value since they don’t have to draft with it.

When you’re already overwhelmed with prospects to develop and picks coming in down the line, you make that trade 8 days of the week.

*again, these are not necessarily Cavs picks, they are LOWEST picks of Cavs/Wolves/Jazz, which means the only way they hit in the lottery is if all three teams win the lottery which is just absolutely not happening. More than half the league makes the playoffs for god’s sake.
 
This is probably really minor since our pick seems really far out of the picture for being the worst of the 3 we had this year, but notice that it's not included in the trade. Maybe the Jazz are keeping it as a valuable asset in case something extraordinary pops up before the trade deadline.

In general, I love this trade. It solves a bit of the problem of diminishing returns for the boat load of picks we had and it gives us some high end outcomes even if it's later in time. Good job, Danny...
 
Something worth keeping in mind is that if the Suns suck next year they could have a decent pick since it seems doubtful to me that Washington suddenly becomes a playoff team. By ‘28, it would seem the Wizards would be ascendant (at least in the East RS), so there just isn’t a good pick for PHX that year.

We gotta hope right now that the Suns get Butler and that it goes well enough that their draft returns are awful and they then suddenly fall off a cliff in a couple of years. I like the odds there because Butler is still incredible when he wants to be… for now.
 
It's a gamble that will end up being great, awful or somewhere in between.

At least the FO expects the two later picks to be our own picks = The Jazz not sucking forever.
 
Just a quick thought that probably didn’t need to be expressed:

Teams that don’t own their pick are almost always going to have better records than teams who do, so you don’t see many teams who are bad accidentally with top 5 lottery odds. Typically a team trying to be bad on purpose can beat out a team that has no reason to be bad for the top lottery odds positioning. However, with increasingly flattened odds there is a much higher chance of owning a team’s pick that turns in to a top 4 pick since teams who have no reason to be bad, but still end up with the 7-14 best lottery odds are still reasonably likely to win the lottery.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Just a quick thought that probably didn’t need to be expressed:

Teams that don’t own their pick are almost always going to have better records than teams who do, so you don’t see many teams who are bad accidentally with top 5 lottery odds. Typically a team trying to be bad on purpose can beat out a team that has no reason to be bad for the top lottery odds positioning.
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This is my biggest concern. The Suns obviously know exactly what we are trying to do, and they of course are going to try and implement a plan to ensure they are not terrible in 2031. They have a full 6 years to figure it out. They could easily try and compete for the next 2-3 seasons, and proceed to bottom out in 28' and 29', before being at least a middling team in 2031. Even if for some reason they fail on that front, as mentioned, they have no incentive to be bad in 31', and there will be at least 5-7 teams trying to lose as much as possible.

With that said, I think Danny is aware of all this and plans to trade the asset in the next couple of seasons in a package for a good player.
 
stitches said:
This is probably really minor since our pick seems really far out of the picture for being the worst of the 3 we had this year, but notice that it's not included in the trade. Maybe the Jazz are keeping it as a valuable asset in case something extraordinary pops up before the trade deadline.

In general, I love this trade. It solves a bit of the problem of diminishing returns for the boat load of picks we had and it gives us some high end outcomes even if it's later in time. Good job, Danny...
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Probably just because our pick this year is already owed if outside of the protected range. It’s already traded.
 
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