Jazz Suns trade

[Step-Back Lauri]

If Jazz intends to keep Lauri long term and will find a great 1st rnd picks now, that 2031 is very valuable. When Lauri enters his season 4 of current contract, there will be transfer window open in 2027 spring, -27 summer, 2028 spring. The 2031 pick is there still far enough (but close enough for them to get their own rebuilds going sooner than later) for teams valuing it high at that point, and if the Jazz needs to nail a (semi) big fish to "complete" a possible team to fight for winning few playoffs series.

I think the earliest point Jazz start aggressively using their assets is 2026 summer, 2027 spring or summer,depending on how the young guys come together. This,unless they can land top 15 player before that,but I do t see it unlikely

 

[HeatCheck]

This is my biggest concern. The Suns obviously know exactly what we are trying to do, and they of course are going to try and implement a plan to ensure they are not terrible in 2031. They have a full 6 years to figure it out. They could easily try and compete for the next 2-3 seasons, and proceed to bottom out in 28' and 29', before being at least a middling team in 2031. Even if for some reason they fail on that front, as mentioned, they have no incentive to be bad in 31', and there will be at least 5-7 teams trying to lose as much as possible.

With that said, I think Danny is aware of all this and plans to trade the asset in the next couple of seasons in a package for a good player.

Agreed. The Suns are a really desirable location for NBA players. Barkley finished his career there, Nash signed in free agency, KD/Butler demand to be traded there, etc. I can see them trying to compete with KD the next 2-3 years but you know they will be big game hunting in FA by '29 to land another star to play next to Booker who should be entering the tail end of his prime. On paper that Suns pick looks like a huge asset at this point though. Wouldn't be surprised if Ainge ends up dealing it in the next few years while it's still a hot commodity.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

One underrated benefit to this trade is people can now cheer for the Cavs in this year's playoffs without anybody here throwing a hissy fit and calling them traitors.

Or cheer for the Wolves and the Cavs to implode.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Something I saw the other day... It might actually be more valuable to own a pick that is top 3 protected vs completely unprotected.

A team that has no protections will do all they can to win. A team with a top 4 protection will try to lose (assuming they are truly bad and wouldn't of be in the lottery even if they tried), but with the flat odds, there is still a decent likelihood even if they are the worst team, it will finish 5th.

For that reason, and my impatience, I still think the 2027 Lakers pick is the most valuable.

 

[idiot]

It's a little funny to me how much teams seem to care about picks they have already given away. I guess, I can see a little bit if the pick is going to a conference rival or maybe especially if a good first rounder turns into two seconds or something if it doesn't convey by a certain time period.

But a pick that's just already flat out another team's property? Doesn't seem like there's much value in trying to influence it (possibly changing your own plans in the process).

But I get it's kind of human nature to not want to be seen as losing the trade by having the pick turn out to be good.

 

[idiot]

Something I saw the other day... It might actually be more valuable to own a pick that is top 3 protected vs completely unprotected.

A team that has no protections will do all they can to win. A team with a top 4 protection will try to lose (assuming they are truly bad and wouldn't of be in the lottery even if they tried), but with the flat odds, there is still a decent likelihood even if they are the worst team, it will finish 5th.

For that reason, and my impatience, I still think the 2027 Lakers pick is the most valuable.

Makes some sense.

Also means (in our case with the Lakers) that if they're truly bad (bottom-3 finish), there's slightly over 50% probability we won't get anything at all. (And only slightly better for us if they finish bottom 4 or 5.)

(At least we know that with these trades, our FO doesn't mind increasing the variability and betting that something big will happen.)

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Something I saw the other day... It might actually be more valuable to own a pick that is top 3 protected vs completely unprotected.

A team that has no protections will do all they can to win. A team with a top 4 protection will try to lose (assuming they are truly bad and wouldn't of be in the lottery even if they tried), but with the flat odds, there is still a decent likelihood even if they are the worst team, it will finish 5th.

For that reason, and my impatience, I still think the 2027 Lakers pick is the most valuable.

Maybe if you are seeing it through to completion but I think as a trade asset it will be better to be unprotected in most cases. It will always depend on the long term outlook for the particular franchise.

I am not sure the Suns pick is the crown jewel of all the crown jewels like some are saying. Its really valuable. I might rather have some other picks out there though. I think what gives me hope is while there is enough time to cycle through a down cycle for the suns... they are about to blow their wad on Jimmy which may be okayish for this year but between the extension he and KD will get and the lack of other picks etc. The Suns will likely end up in a special place of NBA hell in a couple years when those contracts are a millstone and you have no picks to clear space to be a FA destination and because you were so reckless with spending your far out picks are frozen from being moved. You almost want them to be okayish for a year or two because it won't be a quick rebound unless they get a miracle. If they decided this summer it wasn't working and traded those guys while they still have some value... then I could see them being on the come up and the pick being meh.

I think we look to move this pick at some point. Whether for a star of for a move into the lotto in the nearer future. If Rome is on fire the perceived value of the pick will be quite high.

Either way we needed to consolidate at some point and this is a forward looking way to do that which retains really solid value. Basically if one of these picks in the 20s becomes a home run - Bane, OG, Rudy... then it might look bad but its a deal that makes a lot of sense.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Isiah Thomas is kind of the shadow GM. Ishbia is a new owner with more irrational confidence than I have seen maybe ever. KD and Jimmy have turned their backs on franchises multiple times. They are also headed for $60M contracts in their late 30s. Book is either in a slump or a bit of a decline (very likely a slump). Their tax bill is $168M this year... this wreaks of an owner who is just thinking about the next year and might be thinking "if this doesn't work out I just sell the team at a profit and bounce".

 

[homeytennis]

I think Ainge and JZ have realized that there are as good or better players mucking around overseas or in the GLeague than a late first round pick. There are obvious exceptions like the Greek Freak and Joker. Might as well swing for the fences.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If the Suns were going to break up these new found assets in a reasonable way like splitting up the Beal deal into a few more sustainable parts... I'd be a little worried about what we did here. They are going yolo in the most yolo way ever. Its clear Ishbia doesn't think the world survives until 2028 lol.

 

[framer]

Overall I like that the Suns, Lakers, and Wolves picks are in the West. Because the one cast iron guarantee you can make, even 6 years out, is that the Western conference will be better than the East, pushing those picks downward.

 

[NAOS_pt2]

If the Suns were going to break up these new found assets in a reasonable way like splitting up the Beal deal into a few more sustainable parts... I'd be a little worried about what we did here. They are going yolo in the most yolo way ever. Its clear Ishbia doesn't think the world survives until 2028 lol.

yeah, my assumption here is that Phx is gunning for a good last squeeze out of the KD-Booker era. I don't think they've got some kind of long-term/recovery plan.