Jazz vs. Mavs in round one

[fishonjazz]

Dinwidde and Brunson average 16 ppg. I could see them upping their averages to 26 pts and 19 pts, respectively, under the circumstances.

I think they are more likely to average less without luka taking all the defensive pressure off them and getting them good open looks. Plus playoff scoring trends to go down as the refs swallow their whistles a bit and games become more of a grind.


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[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I'm wondering who the Jazz can attack if Luka is off the floor. Maybe Brunson just because he's smaller, or maybe Bullock because he's a bit stiff.

 

[fishonjazz]

I bet he misses the first two games and is back by game 3...obviously just a guess though, not even Luka or the Mavs know at this point how long he'll be out.

This is also my guess. They go down 2-0 and he feels he has to come back in game 3 for them to have a chance


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[fishonjazz]

I'm wondering who the Jazz can attack if Luka is off the floor. Maybe Brunson just because he's smaller, or maybe Bullock because he's a bit stiff.

The ****ing paint, thats who


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[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I think they are more likely to average less without luka taking all the defensive pressure off them and getting them good open looks. Plus playoff scoring trends to go down as the refs swallow their whistles a bit and games become more of a grind.


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Yeah, but their usage is going to go way up. What the Jazz want is Brunson trying to score from mid-range and Dinwiddie driving off the 3pt line and into Gobert. Mavs generate their 3pt looks off of pick-and-roll action. Jazz defense needs to hold up without collapsing on the driver. Luka has tremendous gravity as a pick-and-roll ball handler, but these other guys don't. Jazz want to let these guys isolate and jack from 2pt range.

According to Locke, Dinwiddie has been an effective defender against Mitchell in the past. Jazz are going to have to shake Dinwiddie off and probably try to bring Bullock to the ball with a screen. Also, don't be surprised if the Mavs bring in Sterling Brown and Frank Ntilikina to try to guard Mitchell.

 

[FalseFlagg K]

Listening to Andy Larsen on Checkett's show, he doesn't seem to think Luka will miss much time at all. Says that the Mavs cater to Luka the same way the Jazz cater to Donovan, so they're unlikely to hold him out if he feels he's ready to come back. Also says Luka has a history of making quick comebacks from injury.

yeah i don't care what he says, this one is different., They can cater to him all they like, calf strains are no joke. I had a very mild one and i couldn't do impact exercise for a month

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Im gonna say nope. They didnt do it in the regular season according to you (25+22 doesnt equal 55-60, and 20+23 doesnt either) and in the post season scoring trends down and games become more physical and slugfest like. Now you may be thinking that no luka means more scoring opportunities but there are 2 sides to that coin. Dinwiddie scoring went up once luka was there to get him looks. No luka coukd very well make those guys score less.

Ya, im gonna say nope, dinwiddie and brunson aint scoring 60 points in a game. I would love to put some money on that.


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Yeah they didn't do it against us lol... but they did get to 59 combined against the Kangs...

The argument is can those two score 55-ish combined in the same game... I think they could. I mean Brooks averaged 26 a game against us in last year's playoff. Say Dinwiddie gets 35 in a game... you don't think its possible that Brunson can score 20 in the same game?

Also for reference... Dinwiddie averaged 22 a game in 7 starts for the Mavs... Brunson scored 20+ per when Luka was out. Dallas is a good defensive team and they will be able to put up enough to win a game against us. Maybe in that game we also shoot really well and win it... but people saying this is a sweep or that think its a foregone conclusion we go 2-0 or 3-0 against the Luka-less Mavs aren't giving them enough credit. It isn't just Brunson's scoring... he's also a good passer and can set guys up.

 

[KqWIN]

Brunson and Dinwiddie are both Reggie Jackson level players and those level of players can absolutely shred our playoff defense. Should they? Absolutely not. But history tells us they can/will. Wouldn't even be shocked to see Trey Burke have a 50 point game. We've been the worst defensive team in the playoffs 2x in a row.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think they are more likely to average less without luka taking all the defensive pressure off them and getting them good open looks. Plus playoff scoring trends to go down as the refs swallow their whistles a bit and games become more of a grind.


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think what you want but Dinwiddie creates a lot of his own looks and he's the type of guard we struggle with... has length, can shoot and is shifty. Brunson in addition to being able to run the pick and roll has a post up game that could bother Mike.

I'm not saying they are some duo to be feared... I'm simply saying they are much more capable than some are giving credit for and our perimeter defense in the playoffs has traditionally been fiery diarrhea. Again Dhillon effing Brooks scored 26 a game against us last year.

We should be able to manage... we have the talent to be up 2-0 or 3-0 without Luka... but we have underperformed and had mental collapses all year.

 

[Hekate]

Very valid point. They will have to play a zone to hide Luka and yes Quin loves to hunt guys down.

Not sure how much zone they have played but they don’t have amazing rim protectors. I think they might be better playing without Luka until he can give them like 90%.

It's hard to gauge how the injury will affect him but if he is out there, he is sure to force it which could be to our advantage. He is so talented, though and never plays fast and sees the floor so well.

I guess they aren't going to play much zone, they will probably shrink the floor around Luka after switches and bait us into beating it and try to recover if the ball moves. Not unbeatable but Jazz haven't been making the right decisions.

Luka probably starts on the low weakside, he can see the whole floor and make good rotations. He has been playing more like a 4 on defense lately. If his calf keeps him from making timely rotations, they would have to put him in the first line of action then it's all about getting him on ball and making them react. If he is fine, Jazz would probably put Bojan on weakside so he gets keeps guessing. Things are going to change so much, though.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Brunson and Dinwiddie are both Reggie Jackson level players and those level of players can absolutely shred our playoff defense. Should they? Absolutely not. But history tells us they can/will. Wouldn't even be shocked to see Trey Burke have a 50 point game. We've been the worst defensive team in the playoffs 2x in a row.

Terrence Mann and RJ scored a combined 66 against us in a playoff game last year. We are capable of anything. I would be shocked to see Burke score more than 20 in a game though.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It's hard to gauge how the injury will affect him but if he is out there, he is sure to force it which could be to our advantage. He is so talented, though and never plays fast and sees the floor so well.

I guess they aren't going to play much zone, they will probably shrink the floor around Luka after switches and bait us into beating it and try to recover if the ball moves. Not unbeatable but Jazz haven't been making the right decisions.

Luka probably starts on the low weakside, he can see the whole floor and make good rotations. He has been playing more like a 4 on defense lately. If his calf keeps him from making timely rotations, they would have to put him in the first line of action then it's all about getting him on ball and making them react. If he is fine, Jazz would probably put Bojan on weakside so he gets keeps guessing. Things are going to change so much, though.

I read the Athletic article on his injury from the In Street Clothes guy... This injury will likely bother him a lot on offense since he has so much acceleration and deceleration to his game... at least that was the gist.

Defense I am not smart enough to figure out the scheme stuff.

My prediction is Jazz in 6.