Jazzfanz BIG BOARD rankings ROUND 9
- Thread starter UGLI baby
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Then you frankly didn't look very hard. How about Justin Williams in 2005-2006 for Wyoming who averaged 11.0 rpg and 5.4 bpg for Wyoming? Or Adonal Foyle in 1996-1997 who averaged 13.1 rpg and 6.4 bpg for Colgate? Or Keith Closs in 1995-1996 who averaged 9.3 rpg and 6.4 bpg for Central Connecticut State?
Oh, and Mutombo never averaged more than 4.7 bpg at Georgetown.
Furthermore, this is an outrageously arbitrary set of statistical qualifications you've compiled. For example, if we relaxed it to 9 rebounds and 4.7 blocks (i.e. the standard Mutombo met) we'd be talking about Jarvis Vernado who is in this very same draft class and isn't projected to be drafted. Surely your argument can't be that the .3 difference in blocks per game is the difference between a can't miss prospect and a guy who's not going to be taken in the draft. Vernado, by the way, has been consistently that guy as he's averaged 4.6, 4.7, and 4.7 blocks per game the last three seasons.
Here's the reality: college blocks per game are a very poor predictor of NBA performance because the speed and athleticism of the games are completely different.
Over the last ten+ years the NCAA leaders in blocks have been:
Hassan Whiteside
Jarvis Vernado
Jarvis Vernado
Mickell Gladness
Shawn James (Justin Williams was #2)
Deng Gai (who was only .5 rebounds short of the "magical" 9rpg and 5 bpg)
Anwar Ferguson
Emeka Okafor
Wojciech Myrda
Tarvis Williams
Ken Johnson
Tarvis Williams
Only one of those guys is in the NBA or ever played any significant time in the league. Most were never even prospects for the league. NCAA blocks mean nothing.
calijazz
Winner of the 2011 Jazzfanz mock draft contest
Tough choice for me between Udoh and George. I probably would have said Udoh previously, but I think I'll go with George here. I am starting to fade on the idea of Udoh being an ideal fit for the Jazz. He's more of a finesse player than I would like out of a big man...although his Lamar Odom like skills are intriguing no doubt. George will take some time to fully develop (particularly defensively, although he has the tools)...but I think he should be a pretty good shooter right away and help fill the potential loss of Korver.
Yes, but NCAA blocks combined with rebounding, scoring, NBA athleticism and skills does mean something.
Adonal Foyle is probably one of the best players to come out of the Ivy League (which doesn't say much), but his game doesn't really translate to the NBA because he's not very quick or skilled.
I looked up these other guys you've listed...
Keith Closs was skinny as a stick at 7'3" and 212 lbs. He averaged 3.9 ppg in his 3-year college career at a small school.
Justin Williams had almost no offense and is too thin to play in the NBA.
Jarvis Vernado is barely big enough at 210 lbs to be an SF in the NBA, and he can't shoot, which is why he's not really an NBA prospect.
Mickell Gladness is even skinnier at 200 lbs and is too light to rebound in college, let alone the NBA. He's in the D-league right now.
i know nothing about Shawn James, but he doesn't have the size to play in the post and his stats say he can't score outside, so he should go to Europe probably.
I can't find stats on Deng Gai, but apparently he's in Europe. Again, he weighs 10 lbs. less than CJ Miles, so I doubt he has an NBA body or game to play in the post.
Anwar Ferguson is 7' and 200 lbs., which means he probably can't hold his ground against Deron Williams, let alone an NBA PF or C.
Wojciech Myrda is in Poland, is also skinny, and appears never to have been an NBA prospect.
Tarvis Williams is too small to play forward or center in the NBA, and so he's in France.
When guys are too short, too skinny, too slow, or too worn out, they go to Europe. That's where most of these guys are.
The point here is that none of these exotic names you've listed are NBA-caliber athletes. They don't have a position in the NBA, whereas Whiteside is almost prototypical--similar physically to Jermaine O'Neal and Kevin Garnett at age 20. A year from now he'll be about 240 lbs. He's got a nice set of skills for a PF/C, and he shows in workouts more explosiveness and ability to impact the game than the other PF/Cs in this range.
You combine Whiteside's physical stats, athleticism, college stats and his performance in workouts, and you see that he's a lottery pick with more history to judge by than Jermaine O'Neal and Andrew Bynum had when they came into the league out of high school.
It's not a given that Greg Monroe is going to be quick or skilled enough to make a real impact on either end of the floor in the NBA. Ekepe Udoh is an okay rotation player along the lines of Udonis Haslem, Luis Scola, Carl Landry and maybe Jason Thompson, but the Jazz already have Millsap, AK and Koufos at PF. A back-up PF is also something that's relatively attainable through trades and free agency. I can see an argument to take Cole Aldrich, given that the Jazz's system can maximize his abilities, and he should at least be a solid rebounder--like a defensive-oriented Kevin Love. Pattrick Patterson works hard enough and is a good enough athlete to possibly be an impact player. Ed Davis is a bit small and a bit of a mystery.
But looking at the current Jazz line up, which players in the draft really have the potential to break into an 8-man rotation and make a difference to the number of games the Jazz win?
If the Jazz want to go big, I'd rank Whiteside as a prospect right behind Favors and Cousins, and about even with Monroe, given that I'm not sure how many minutes Aldrich will be able to take away from Fess and Okur at the C spot and whether he can really play PF out on the floor. I don't think the risk with Whiteside is really much if any greater than Cousins, to be honest. If the Jazz want to upgrade the wing, there are a few possibilities that work, including George, Henry and probably Babbit.
The draft is the best opportunity to add talent to the roster, so it's best to try to get a player who has the potential to be part of a 'Big 3' core group of impact players.
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Henry, and it's not even close. Udoh will be a guy who bounces around the league for 3-4 years and is gone, George won't see a 4th year, Davis has "Hilton Armstrong" written all over him, Babbitt will be a role player, Honzward will light it up in Europe, and Whiteside will make D.J. Mbenga look like a star. Patterson is my next choice.
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
I chose Henry. But it was very close with Babbitt. I don't find he's your typical white boy. Very, very athletic looking on video (often above the rim), his measurements back that up, and he can shoot. The clincher for me is how natural he appears in his movements, compared to a Brewer who always looked like he was overthinking out there or George in this draft who looks too deliberate in his moves.
Is Babbitt's big knock his defense? I think it is which surprises me because he does have athleticism (eveen good looking lateral quickness) and size.
Is Babbitt's big knock his defense? I think it is which surprises me because he does have athleticism (eveen good looking lateral quickness) and size.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
We're on the same page.
I agree with others who say Whiteside could turn out to be the next Saer Sene. Personally, I don't think that happens. Watch his workout and you'll see the talent and athleticism are there. Mental toughness and confidence could be a factor, though. Hassan certainly has the potential to become a Marcus Camby. Or he could be spolied by his new found riches and just quit working.
Hassan is the BEST chance the Jazz have of matching up against the bigger teams. We struggle against Minnesota and get killed by the Lakers. Maybe Aldrich makes a bit of a difference. I just don't see him making enough. Cole would probably have a bigger impact in 2010/11 than Whiteside, but then what? Hassan's potential is through the roof. Maybe I'm relying too much on the "character" side. But Whiteside has no tats, no earrings, doesn't party, etc. Of course, neither did Shawn Bradley. But I think that screams of a guy who would do well surrounded by other players like Millsap, Williams and Matthews. They're going to set the example in terms of work ethic. And I think Whiteside would follow suit.
I read this as "It's been pretty definitively proven my previous post was a total load of crap, so I'm going to start adding additional criteria at whim and then claim Whiteside meets them."
Ivy League? So apparently your lack of knowledge also extends to higher education.
Foyle's blocking skills actually translated well to the NBA (at one point he was averaging 2.7 bpg). Foyle's real problem in the NBA is that he was offensively inept enough that he was below the funcational equivalent of basketball's Mendoza line.
In terms of a comparison between Foyle and Whiteside's skill level it's not one that's favorable to your position. They both played in lesser conferences (although Conference USA is better than the Patriot League).
Whiteside averaged 13.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg, and 5.4 bpg but he shot only 52.4% from the field. Usually 52.4% from the field is a good number but the reality is that guys that are so large in college and have a "high skill level" shoot extremely high percentages at the college level because there is essentially no threat that their shot can be blocked. The guys you tried to compare him too all shot extraodrinarily high percentages:
Mourning shot slightly over 60% as a freshman in college for instance and shot 59.5% as a senior, well above Whiteside's numbers. And he was the worst shooter in that group.
Mutombo shot 64.4% from the field over three years in college.
Shaquille O'Neal shot 61% from the field in college.
David Robinson shot 61.3%.
Hakeem Olajuwon: 63.9%
But Adonal Foyle: When he was a freshman even he shot 55.9% and 54.7% for his college career.
In sum, the "skill" numbers from Whiteside indicating he's a natural around the basketball as opposed to just a guy who was bigger than everybody else in Conference USA aren't great.
I'll even take you one better and talk about last year's "guy who was bigger than everybody else" - Hasheem Thabeet. Even Thabeet came close to 5 blocks and 9 rebounds per game (he was about half a block off twice). Thabeet, who looks absolutely clueless in the NBA, shot 61% in college.
The only guy you might have is Benoit Benjamin who shot 56.2% in college, but Benjamin was a hard-nose blue collar player in the league. This is where Whiteside's horrible interviews that express that he already thinks he's incredible come into play.
In reality, the fact that Whiteside shot 58.8% from the free throw line is probably your best indicator of his actual ability to hit a mid-range jumper in the league (a claim you've made repeatedly.) If they're going in at that rate uncontested, it's going to be bad when he's facing real defense.
The longest guy in the draft always has a mystique about him and he usually sucks if he even makes an impact on the league. People want so badly for him to be the next superstar that they latch onto little snippets in workouts and project forward to make him David Robinson or Hakeem Olajuwon. I see Whiteside and remember that I have learned my lesson with Podkolzin and Saer Sene.
BENTLEY
Well-Known Member
kicky's right in that the length of Whiteside has had me trying to ignore the red flags. He's a huge question mark. After going back and forth with a few posters I feel better about Aldrich. I've been convinced that a more accurate projection for Aldrich is Al Horford. And that makes me very happy with the 9th pick.
If Aldrich is gone before then though I think I'd gamble on Whiteside. I think Monroe will just be frustrating and Udoh will be a role player.
I guess the Jazz could draft a wing and grab a big guy in the second round but you're picking between Zoubek, Samhan, and Olbrect at that point - and just hoping they're better than Fes.
I don't know. Hopefully Aldrich will be there. Or the Jazz trade down and grab Whiteside + a nice wing at the end of the first round. Or draft Babbitt/George/Xavier and Pittman in the early second. ...but c'mon, it's a vain hope the Jazz make any moves in the draft. Let's just hope Aldrich is still there at 9.
If Aldrich is gone before then though I think I'd gamble on Whiteside. I think Monroe will just be frustrating and Udoh will be a role player.
I guess the Jazz could draft a wing and grab a big guy in the second round but you're picking between Zoubek, Samhan, and Olbrect at that point - and just hoping they're better than Fes.
I don't know. Hopefully Aldrich will be there. Or the Jazz trade down and grab Whiteside + a nice wing at the end of the first round. Or draft Babbitt/George/Xavier and Pittman in the early second. ...but c'mon, it's a vain hope the Jazz make any moves in the draft. Let's just hope Aldrich is still there at 9.
I'm saying Whiteside is a legitimate prospect. His college numbers are strong and in line with other strong prospects in this draft and past drafts. He plays mostly a face-up game and is better suited to a PF than a C. He was even listed as a forward on his college roster, and if you watch his tapes, he plays out on the floor. Hence, his shooting percentage of 52% is fine. He scored off a variety of moves, not just lay ups and dunks. In his workouts he shoots out on the floor and fills the lane at least as well as anyone else and gets much better elevation. He can get his shot off over Udoh anytime he wants. Lots of big players take a while to improve their free throwing shooting--e.g., Malone, Duncan, Kemp, etc. You can see from his tapes and workouts that he can shoot.
I'm not saying Whiteside is the next Olajuwon or Mourning, but I do think he has a straightforward path to becoming the next Andray Blatche or Jermaine O'Neal, which would make him an 18-9-2.5 guy and a top 3 option on a strong playoff team, combined with D. Will and a talented wing.
FYI, Adonal Foyle, whom I watched at Golden State (I live in the Bay Area too), was too slow to guard people away from the hoop, and as you mentioned, he had no offense. He had good numbers in college, but he wasn't playing against serious college programs and going head to head with players like Jerome Jordan or Ed Davis. He was playing against teams like Yale, Princeton and Cornell--probably 6'6" guys who were majoring in math or international relations.
Comparing Whiteside to Saer Sene who never really played anywhere is inappropriate. If Whiteside busts, it will be because of injury problems or lack of work ethic. So far, he has the tools, he is working hard, he added some moves, and he put on 20 lbs. in the last year alone. He seems like he really wants to play.
I question whether Monroe is really that great a prospect. He doesn't have elite athleticism, quickness, or explosiveness. He doesn't run the floor that well, and he doesn't really elevate above the rim. People compare him to Brad Miller because he can pass, but Brad Miller never won anything, never drew a double team, and rarely made a big defensive play. If Monroe works hard and plays to his strengths, he could *maybe* have a career like Zach Randolph, Vin Baker (or Okur)--a player who can put up some numbers, but doesn't have a complete game. Both Zach and Vin also showed much more talent offensively than Monroe. The Jazz's system could make Monroe look pretty good in set plays, but he could be a liability on defense as bad as what we've had with Boozer and Okur. Guys can go by him or over him. He wasn't much of a defensive presence in college either. Hopefully Monroe is gone by the time the Jazz pick, so the issue is moot.
If the Jazz go big, they are probably looking at Cole Aldrich and Hassan Whiteside. Udoh doesn't give us something we don't already have in Millsap and AK. Ed Davis could be in the picture too, but he's a bit undersized.
I'm not saying Whiteside is the next Olajuwon or Mourning, but I do think he has a straightforward path to becoming the next Andray Blatche or Jermaine O'Neal, which would make him an 18-9-2.5 guy and a top 3 option on a strong playoff team, combined with D. Will and a talented wing.
FYI, Adonal Foyle, whom I watched at Golden State (I live in the Bay Area too), was too slow to guard people away from the hoop, and as you mentioned, he had no offense. He had good numbers in college, but he wasn't playing against serious college programs and going head to head with players like Jerome Jordan or Ed Davis. He was playing against teams like Yale, Princeton and Cornell--probably 6'6" guys who were majoring in math or international relations.
Comparing Whiteside to Saer Sene who never really played anywhere is inappropriate. If Whiteside busts, it will be because of injury problems or lack of work ethic. So far, he has the tools, he is working hard, he added some moves, and he put on 20 lbs. in the last year alone. He seems like he really wants to play.
I question whether Monroe is really that great a prospect. He doesn't have elite athleticism, quickness, or explosiveness. He doesn't run the floor that well, and he doesn't really elevate above the rim. People compare him to Brad Miller because he can pass, but Brad Miller never won anything, never drew a double team, and rarely made a big defensive play. If Monroe works hard and plays to his strengths, he could *maybe* have a career like Zach Randolph, Vin Baker (or Okur)--a player who can put up some numbers, but doesn't have a complete game. Both Zach and Vin also showed much more talent offensively than Monroe. The Jazz's system could make Monroe look pretty good in set plays, but he could be a liability on defense as bad as what we've had with Boozer and Okur. Guys can go by him or over him. He wasn't much of a defensive presence in college either. Hopefully Monroe is gone by the time the Jazz pick, so the issue is moot.
If the Jazz go big, they are probably looking at Cole Aldrich and Hassan Whiteside. Udoh doesn't give us something we don't already have in Millsap and AK. Ed Davis could be in the picture too, but he's a bit undersized.
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I have to say I agree with most of what you're saying.
I dont' want any part of Monroe- Brad Miller disease.
Udoh seems like a small finesse forward that has maxed out his ability.
I would be okay with Aldrich or Henry. But I would prefer taking a chance with Aminu, George or Whiteside.