Jazzfanz Mock Draft 2015: Pick #12

[Cappy_Smurf]

I have to admit, I'm looking at things differently this year than I have for quite a while. 98% of the time I believe in taking the player with the best chance to turn into something special, even if there's a higher risk they bust or they are several years away from being a significant contributor. However, I feel like Utah has turned a big corner, mainly due to the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, and I've got a taste for playoff blood now that has me saying to hell with patience. That's why I'm favoring Kaminsky/Portis, when normally I'd probably be pushing for Looney or Turner. Funny thing is, if Utah really wants to go all in this year, they should probably trade the pick in a deal for someone like Lowry/Holiday/Lawson.
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When it comes down to it, I guess I'm kinda stuck wanting the best of both worlds. My first preference is still to trade up for Hezonja/Porzingis/Johnson. Second preference is probably a trade for someone who helps right away, but only if we pull off a good deal. Don't want to overpay. Third preference is to draft someone who can contribute right away, which is why I favor Frank/Portis. Lastly, if DL is confident in finding 1st rate talent at 12, I'll support that even if it means several years before it pays off. Just can't get too excited right now for option 4.

 

[Doublea]

So I see there are zero votes for Cameron Payne making it an almost certainty that 1- the Jazz will draft him and 2- we will all find away to claim he was our guy all along.

There are a few of us pimping Payne, but I just don't see how the Jazz can draft him.

 

[stitches]

I have to admit, I'm looking at things differently this year than I have for quite a while. 98% of the time I believe in taking the player with the best chance to turn into something special, even if there's a higher risk they bust or they are several years away from being a significant contributor. However, I feel like Utah has turned a big corner, mainly due to the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, and I've got a taste for playoff blood now that has me saying to hell with patience. That's why I'm favoring Kaminsky/Portis, when normally I'd probably be pushing for Looney or Turner. Funny thing is, if Utah really wants to go all in this year, they should probably trade the pick in a deal for someone like Lowry/Holiday/Lawson.
.
When it comes down to it, I guess I'm kinda stuck wanting the best of both worlds. My first preference is still to trade up for Hezonja/Porzingis/Johnson. Second preference is probably a trade for someone who helps right away, but only if we pull off a good deal. Don't want to overpay. Third preference is to draft someone who can contribute right away, which is why I favor Frank/Portis. Lastly, if DL is confident in finding 1st rate talent at 12, I'll support that even if it means several years before it pays off. Just can't get too excited right now for option 4.

The thing with drafting the guy who can help right away strategy is that almost no rookie ever helps much for winning, and especially not the ones that are usually available and taken late in the lottery. That's why I think it's a mistake for us to draft for short-term fit and short-term expectations. Drafting for long-term prospects of the players is the best strategy IMO, and the long-term returns are the only ones that really matter unless we are on the verge of contending right now. We are not going to contend next season with or without the contributions of 1 rookie... whoever we draft, I don't think he will change our season a lot. The first substantial and tangible contribution of young players usually comes in years 2 and 3 of their rookie contract.

About the possible trade of the pick - I kind of prefer we draft and keep the player and develop him. DL has said that the FO feels like we have a distinct advantage against the field in one area and that's player development. If he feels comfortable enough to say it to the public I will believe him and I'd prefer to give the coaching staff another diamond in the rough to try to work with and polish.

 

[fishonjazz]

I have to admit, I'm looking at things differently this year than I have for quite a while. 98% of the time I believe in taking the player with the best chance to turn into something special, even if there's a higher risk they bust or they are several years away from being a significant contributor. However, I feel like Utah has turned a big corner, mainly due to the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, and I've got a taste for playoff blood now that has me saying to hell with patience. That's why I'm favoring Kaminsky/Portis, when normally I'd probably be pushing for Looney or Turner. Funny thing is, if Utah really wants to go all in this year, they should probably trade the pick in a deal for someone like Lowry/Holiday/Lawson.
.
When it comes down to it, I guess I'm kinda stuck wanting the best of both worlds. My first preference is still to trade up for Hezonja/Porzingis/Johnson. Second preference is probably a trade for someone who helps right away, but only if we pull off a good deal. Don't want to overpay. Third preference is to draft someone who can contribute right away, which is why I favor Frank/Portis. Lastly, if DL is confident in finding 1st rate talent at 12, I'll support that even if it means several years before it pays off. Just can't get too excited right now for option 4.

Great post.
I agree with every bit of it.

1. Super Mario (winslow, johnson, porzingus)
2. Trade for immediate vet help
3. Draft a safe, ready to play player (Frank)

Above all, let's make the playoffs next season

 

[Qman]

A note on Turner-- his movement reminds me of Hayward as a rookie. If he is will to work, the P3 guys could transform his movement. I think a lot of his defensive movement problems are related to his inability to get into a defensive stance.

 

[Jaymz]

A note on Turner-- his movement reminds me of Hayward as a rookie. If he is will to work, the P3 guys could transform his movement. I think a lot of his defensive movement problems are related to his inability to get into a defensive stance.

I dunno about his D, but I think you're spot on with his offensive movement.

 

[Cappy_Smurf]

We are not going to contend next season with or without the contributions of 1 rookie....

This might be true, but I don't believe it's a given. I actually think some people will be shocked at how good Utah is next year. I say that as someone who usually errs on the side of caution with team predictions. Unless you think the second half of the season was a fluke, Utah was already a playoff caliber team last year. Depending on what changes are made, I don't think it's out of the question that we could be winning a lot of games next year.
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Also, I agree with you that rookies don't normally have much of an impact, and yet I think there could be a huge difference over the next two years between someone like Frank and one the rookies who might take 2 or 3 years before they make any impact at all. I do agree that it's almost always better to draft long term, which is why I am conflicted right now. I still think there's a good chance the pick gets traded for an established player.

 

[infection]

If we can add two floor spacers into the rotation without sacrificing much, those two guys will add much more to the team than whatever numbers they put up and would be more of an intangible benefit. Frank won't make or break us, but if he can hit an open J then that really changes things, regardless of how "rookie" he is.

Tl;dr Draft Frank and Trey'd for McDougy.

 

[Stoked]

So it lloks like the Jazz will get a big unless they trade the pick.

So maybe they keep the pick and focus on the PG position?

 

[BENTLEY]

I'm leaning Turner.

 

[spycam1]

I kinda think the upside of Turner is too much to pass on, but since it looks like Frank is going to win no matter what at this point, I may just show Looney some love (who I think will get serious consideration from the Jazz anyway).

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Think we have a winner