Let's talk about Quin

[LogGrad98]

I have been thinking about this a lot. Is Quin really the right coach for us, or has he lost the team? Does he do enough to drive momentum shifts in the game? Does he have his players' respect enough to demand action and get it?

I don't think so.

Someone who can get at the advanced stats better than me can probably find out, but it seems he is really bad at things like play calls out of a timeout, lineup adjustments, and in-game adjustments to what the other team is doing. More often than not it seems that timeouts end in a failed attempt or a turnover. He doesn't seem to be able to steer the team and get them to do anything different during the game either. Multiple timeouts spent to get the team going or make adjustments, yet nothing really changes on the floor until the players just decide to get their asses moving it seems like. Sometimes his rotations seems not just weird, but not well-planned out, although I don't think this is quite as big a deal. And he seems to defer a lot to Donovan when Donovan has proven he isn't the best decision-maker in the clutch. I know "clutch" isn't a thing, but that is more about shooting. In my eyes, "clutch" players are those that handle the pressure well and, more often than not, make the right decision in games going down to the wire. That isn't Donovan. Yet Quin still defers to forced up 3s with multiple defenders all over him rather than a few cuts and sharp passed to get the ball to a Bogey or whoever else can get a truly open shot. Is this Quin just letting the play flow, or was it his actual play call. "Ok guys, I want 4 of you to go stand still on the 3 pt line, Rudy you stand just outside the lane on the baseline. Don, you do your magic. No one else move so he has plenty of space to create. Ready...break!" Sounds stupid.

For the record, I think he does well with big adjustments, like at hafltime. But before that, during the half that just ended, if the other team figures something out, well we can just plan on watching our lead evaporate because nothing will change until halftime.

I do not think Quin is the genius tactician he was always made out to be.

So, is he the guy? If not, is there a guy out there? Does it even matter?

Discuss...

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Heavy 3pt shooting teams are usually not going to be the best clutch teams. Too much variance in makes/misses.

That being said, Utah has been a top 10 clutch team by net rating for the last 6 years.

The room for improvement is in clutch rebounding and clutch defense. Neither of these things are awful, but they could be improved.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I'm not particularly high on Quin after the last two playoff collapses, but I think he's a good regular season coach. I think we have a veteran team that is past the days of, "Wake Up" where they will respond to that type of motivation. Quin plays the statistics, which is a good strategy for a long regular season, but sometimes isn't great for individual games or against specific players. For example conceding long twos might be the best strategy over a season, but might hurt you in an individual game.

As far as statistics that refute some of your assumptions:
- Fairly recently Andy Larsen shared some stats showing that we are the #2 or #3 team out of a time out (this was posted in one of the threads). I was blown away by this statistic, but I guess we tend to dwell on the negatives and forget the positives.
- We are basically tied for the top net rating in the league. So we have beaten teams by as much as any other team in the league. The NBA is not easy and teams making runs is typical, even though it sometimes feels catastrophic within a game.

As for clutch that definitely needs to be looked at. Donovan admitting recently to not running a play quite the way Quin had drawn up (can't find the quote), and so it's hard to say how much is on Quin vs the players. Looking at NBA.com we are currently 4th in offensive rating, 15th in defensive rating, and 8th in net rating in the clutch. Those numbers are ok, but should be much better. Looking at the best teams in the league their clutch numbers are actually improved vs their regular numbers. I would guess the clutch is when they are the most locked in and playing their best. For example Phoenix goes from a 110ORTG and 103DRTG normally to 133ORTG and 84DRTG in the clutch. The Jazz go from a 117ORTG and 106DRTG normally to a 123 ORTG and 108 DRTG in the clutch.

I don't know about the clutch though. A lot of that tends to be luck and isn't sustainable over time. For example we were a much better clutch team than Phoenix last year. The #1 clutch team last year was Portland and they are 21st this year. Teams have hit some pretty incredible shots over us in the clutch this year, and we have missed some fairly easy ones.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Playing with the "Clutch" settings and the Jazz are probably worse than their basic setting "clutch" stats suggest.

Also, teh Royce haters will love this, but Royce hasn't made a single field goal in the last 5 minutes of a close game all season. (He's only taken 6 shots though)

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also, having or not having Mike Conley might make a huge difference. The biggest adjustment might just be putting the ball in Mike's hands more (just based off looking at individual clutch stats).

Conley has a +48 net rating in clutch minutes, but has only played in 11 clutch games vs 15 for the regular starters. He has 6 assist in 39 minutes with only 1 turnover

Bojan only has two rebounds in 50 minutes of clutch game time. He shoots in well and score, but that is basically all he does. He also fouls a lot, 8 fouls in 50 minutes.

Donovan only has 7 assist and 5 turnovers in 48 minutes of clutch game time

 

[homeytennis]

Quin is a system guy and if a player is not in the hard rotation they sit. My first memory of watching NBA basketball was the Sonics coached by Bill Russell and Lenny Wilkins. Both coaches won NBA Championships as a coach and they both believed in playing the full roster for injury prevention and a way to build team chemistry. Two ways to skin the cat I guess.

 

[Gameface]

Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

Let's talk about Quin for now
to all the people at home or in the crowd
he keeps coming up anyhow
Don't be coy, avoid, or make void the topic
Cuz that ain't gonna stop it
Now we talk about Quin on the radio and video shows
Many will know any shot goes

Let's talk about how it is and how it could be
How it was, and of course, how it should be
Those who think he sucks, have a choice
Pick up the remote, press pause, or turn the TV off
Will that stop us, fanz? I doubt it

Alright then, c'mon, Quin
Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

Hot to chuck, make any team's eyes pop
Jazz use any shot, even ones they don't got
Fans drool like fools, but then again they're only homers
The shot was a hit because Vivint was boomin'

Don, Mike, Rudy, crazy Jordan
No shot they take was ever common
Opponents might be great, men with skills
LeBron, Giannis, no one was too great to score on

Or even dunk on
The chip Quin says is next on his list
and believe me, you
it's as good as true
Their ain't a team alive that Jazz can't get next to

They had the win in the bag so they should have been glad
but they were bad, and sad and fouling mad
Thinking about the chip they never had
No D, just O, followed next by a chuck and a choke
I guess that last win was dope

Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

Jazzfanz, ALL the Jazzfanz
Post it now, help me out
Come on, all the Jazzfanz
Let's talk about Quin, alright

Yo Mods, I don't think you're gonna lock this post down
And why not? Everybody talkin' 'bout Quin
I mean every Jazzman should be making clutch shots
Come on, how many guys you know make clutch shots?

Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

 

[infection]

I think it's definitely a quandary. I think Quin has gotten 80-85% of stuff right and I think he's done a great job. Of course it's hard to know what a comparison is and perhaps other coaches would be able to recognize the same things and get us this same distance, so I don't know. The biggest thing is that Quin believes in Rudy, perhaps in a way many other coaches may not. I'm not entirely certain, but I am confident that Quin knows Rudy's value and he's built a system around it. The challenging part becomes knowing the limitations of that system (i.e. not adapting and leaving Rudy in no-man's land while the other team destroys us, or encouraging the absolutely dismal perimeter defensive strategies when they're not working and expecting Rudy to be the bailout guy). But that other 15-20% is killer, and I think an even halfway competent coach would be able to recognize and respond with at least half of that 15-20% and I believe that would be enough to take us over the top. This is why I made a thread this summer about the biggest off-season acquisition really being Quin adding a veteran coach to the staff that he'd listen to. He defers to Donovan way too much, particularly in closing. I think this is a personality thing for him as he does the same with JC when it's not working, and he gives Don that latitude as a way of showing that he believes in him. I don't think he can keep us focused and I don't think he keeps us calm when the **** hits the fan. That's why we couple our poor defensive efforts with the most baffling offensive lulls to create these catastrophic meltdowns. The pattern is there where you can't say we're just being biased by a couple outliers that were really painful. The problem is that we disguise those behind "well we weren't healthy" when the underlying flaws were a genuine part of the team and we're all colluding together to pretend it's not a big deal. As has been mentioned previously, his understanding of moneyball is also suspect. He appears to feel he has to execute the moneyball strategy with exactness to get the most probable outcome, but never recognizes the new variables that get introduced that completely change the equation, and then seems baffled of how it could ever be conceivably possible that Mann could shoot so well above his averages in a small sample set.

I guess maybe what he would be good at is being the super assistant coach who is the brains behind everything and the real mastermind, but with a different ***-kicking face who yells at everyone being the head coach. Kinda like if we had Sloan as HC with Quin as the assistant, where Quin develops the game plan and everything else but Jerry would manage the yelling and the minute-to-minute stuff.

Basically Quin is a Gobert. He needs a Mitchell. Someone who isn't as important to anyone who's paying attention, but someone who appears to be the leader.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Quin is fine... I think we do have an overall toughness issue and I think part of it may come from Quin.

Was listening to another podcast and they described their frustration with Tobias Harris as "he looks like he plays basketball not to upset anyone". I would use that to describe a lot of our players and Quin. There are times Quin doesn't lose his **** on the refs and he should... there are times Quin should lay into the players and he doesn't... just feels like we are a little too nice and just want to do things right ya know... we aren't here to make trouble. Its why the nights Hassan is being an agitator and giving hard fouls it is so refreshing.

Contrast that with Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart who look like they are constantly looking to start ****.... now there are lines and it can quickly turn into a clown show... see Morris twins, Demarcus Cousins and Pat Bev (sometimes). It comes back to me saying last year we needed an *******... Hassan was a nice step forward in that direction. We need that perimeter defender that plays with a little more force and it would be preferable if that person was a little "edgey". It can't be forced or fake tough guy stuff (well its all kinda fake tough guy stuff but you know what I mean). Its why I love guys like Jae'Sean Tate.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think it's definitely a quandary. I think Quin has gotten 80-85% of stuff right and I think he's done a great job. Of course it's hard to know what a comparison is and perhaps other coaches would be able to recognize the same things and get us this same distance, so I don't know. The biggest thing is that Quin believes in Rudy, perhaps in a way many other coaches may not. I'm not entirely certain, but I am confident that Quin knows Rudy's value and he's built a system around it. The challenging part becomes knowing the limitations of that system (i.e. not adapting and leaving Rudy in no-man's land while the other team destroys us, or encouraging the absolutely dismal perimeter defensive strategies when they're not working and expecting Rudy to be the bailout guy). But that other 15-20% is killer, and I think an even halfway competent coach would be able to recognize and respond with at least half of that 15-20% and I believe that would be enough to take us over the top. This is why I made a thread this summer about the biggest off-season acquisition really being Quin adding a veteran coach to the staff that he'd listen to. He defers to Donovan way too much, particularly in closing. I think this is a personality thing for him as he does the same with JC when it's not working, and he gives Don that latitude as a way of showing that he believes in him. I don't think he can keep us focused and I don't think he keeps us calm when the **** hits the fan. That's why we couple our poor defensive efforts with the most baffling offensive lulls to create these catastrophic meltdowns. The pattern is there where you can't say we're just being biased by a couple outliers that were really painful. The problem is that we disguise those behind "well we weren't healthy" when the underlying flaws were a genuine part of the team and we're all colluding together to pretend it's not a big deal. As has been mentioned previously, his understanding of moneyball is also suspect. He appears to feel he has to execute the moneyball strategy with exactness to get the most probable outcome, but never recognizes the new variables that get introduced that completely change the equation, and then seems baffled of how it could ever be conceivably possible that Mann could shoot so well above his averages in a small sample set.

I guess maybe what he would be good at is being the super assistant coach who is the brains behind everything and the real mastermind, but with a different ***-kicking face who yells at everyone being the head coach. Kinda like if we had Sloan as HC with Quin as the assistant, where Quin develops the game plan and everything else but Jerry would manage the yelling and the minute-to-minute stuff.

Basically Quin is a Gobert. He needs a Mitchell. Someone who isn't as important to anyone who's paying attention, but someone who appears to be the leader.

Mike Malone is the type of guy who balances the "rip my team" vs "slap my guys on the ***" super well. Even last night Quin was praising them for staying tough and pulling it out in the end. Last night felt like a night that he could get into guys a bit more you can't let that type of lead and head start just dwindle because you are so ****ing pleased with yourself.

One thing that may be happening is he may feel like if he coaches certain guys hard he will lose them. He has no problem getting tough on the young guys when the mess up... IDK his voice may be a little tired and he may be a little worried about his current standing with the organization given its new leadership.

 

[infection]

My fear with losing Quin (or with not really knowing what Smith / Wade / Ainge think of Rudy) is that we accelerate into "Donovan & friends," move on from Rudy, and become Portland.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean Mike Conley has never gotten a technical... its cool and all but man that means he is kind of king of not trying to upset anyone... and sometimes you need to go out there and ruffle some feathers ya know. Every title team seems to have that guy who is out there trying to get under your skin for 48 minutes. PJ Tucker, Jae Crowder, Lakers had Dwight and Rajon, Kyle Lowry, Draymond Green, Dellavadova, Haslem... Rodman back in the day, Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, KG...

We need some guys we wonder how they will fit chemistry wise... I think I may be all in on getting Marcus Smart if we can.