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Likely Rebuild Timeline / Strategy

HeatCheck said:
I'm resigned to it being 2 tank seasons unfortunately. Hopefully a miracle happens next offseason but not very optimistic. Ainge pulled off miracles in Boston but Utah is just another animal.

Initially thought they could get lucky draft, someone like Flagg and use their warchest to bring in another star such as Giannis (or whoever). Unfortunately I don't think those Cle/Minn picks are going to have much value. The Bucks have already traded all their picks so they can't tank unless a team like Houston trades them the Phoenix unprotected FRPs. The Jazz have a warchest but can't compete with OKC or Houston in terms of pick quality or high potential rookie contract players to send back in a deal for a star.
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I bet it ends up being two tank heavy years but if DA finds an opportunity he will pursue it.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I’m more and more convinced Ainge isn’t the “5 year plan” type. He is opportunistic and goes in a general direction as opportunities present themselves. I’d say we plan to be ****** for a year and see what happens in the lotto. After that we could be ****** again or he may see enough promise and get an opportunity to put the foot on the gas. For good or bad I don’t think there is a rigid disciplined 3-4 year plan. Every 12 months or so they look at where they are and have a few options to pursue.

I agree he didn’t bet on one particular thing happening. He bet on uncertainty and just general chaos that can happen.

I think right now I am as comfortable as I have been in the DA era at understanding the current plan and not makes sense. It may not work… that’s okay. We are giving ourselves a chance to get the kind of luck we need in multiple ways.
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IT does seem like they just didnt value the last two drafts and they are clearly all in on this one. So I do think there is some sort of plan? That's a bit of reach, but this year is definitely different. Maybe they ultimately never want to convey to OKC and they didnt want to be awful awful for 4 straight years? I think they kind of know their current vets will never have value outside of being expirings, so they are all in on the youth now.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
IT does seem like they just didnt value the last two drafts and they are clearly all in on this one. So I do think there is some sort of plan? That's a bit of reach, but this year is definitely different. Maybe they ultimately never want to convey to OKC and they didnt want to be awful awful for 4 straight years? I think they kind of know their current vets will never have value outside of being expirings, so they are all in on the youth now.
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Oh I think they valued the 2023 draft. I think they got caught in the air. They misdiagnosed a couple things and then starting 10-3 with Lauri poised to be an AS while they host the AS game… they were trying to move a bunch of dudes before the season and just wanted more than they were being offered.

Last year I believe they were fine conveying the pick if they ended up in the play in so I think they likely didn’t value last years draft. When they saw they were mid they made the decision to tank for now.

I have it on very good authority that the Jazz indeed were in on Bridges and had a BIG offer out there if they could get PG to commit. And PG was considering it. It seems far fetched of course but it was out there.

That’s why I think it’s so much more flexible than some of us think. I’m cool with anyone thinking how they want of course cuz we are all kinda guessing.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Oh I think they valued the 2023 draft. I think they got caught in the air. They misdiagnosed a couple things and then starting 10-3 with Lauri poised to be an AS while they host the AS game… they were trying to move a bunch of dudes before the season and just wanted more than they were being offered.

Last year I believe they were fine conveying the pick if they ended up in the play in so I think they likely didn’t value last years draft. When they saw they were mid they made the decision to tank for now.

I have it on very good authority that the Jazz indeed were in on Bridges and had a BIG offer out there if they could get PG to commit. And PG was considering it. It seems far fetched of course but it was out there.

That’s why I think it’s so much more flexible than some of us think. I’m cool with anyone thinking how they want of course cuz we are all kinda guessing.
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To some degree, the plan for every single team is to make the big moves that make them a contender right now. It's just not feasible to happen. I think DA tried and failed twice in a row and he will likely try and come up short once again this summer. I don't think there is a strong preference to tank, but going the other direction and trying to win is not actually possible unless you pull of some crazy PG+Mikal type sweep. Can't snap your fingers and find star trades. The good thing is that we are no longer half and half. I think we're done with this mediocre business. Last two seasons were wasteful.
 
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Stuck in the turnstile now. Over the past couple of years, we’ve managed to divest ourselves of all of the cagey veterans that could inspire the rag tags to embarrass the NBA elite teams. (I enjoyed that aspect, the occasional ambush of a Championship caliber team.) Kelly and Kris and Ochai and Simone and their Jazz exploits are nothing but distant hazy memories now and named utterances verboten (Voldemort). No Dawgs or Prodigies left in Mudville, just the din of tanking tanking tanking till Mighty Casey comes to town.

Sorry, not the right one to ask cause I don’t see an end in sight, miss the good ole days and suspect that Mighty Casey is ultimately just another disappointment waiting to happen.
 
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Jazz needs great picks and a big trade or Lauri will be moved out by the spring 2027 (he'd still have 2,5 seasons of contract that becomes much more team friendly in it's last season).

If Danny hasn't by that point seen enough to think the team is small moves away to win several off season series by the end of Lauri's contract, he'll trade him for upside pieces+picks and let it brew longer.
 
HermanG said:
That may be reality in NBA2K but in the real world most star players are in teams who are trying to win, and those teams dont trade good players in exchange for draft picks unless they first decide to enter a rebuild or the star asks out.

This is not even close to being a matter of debate.
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In the real world, there are maybe 3-4 contenders in each conference. Maybe.

I'm not talking about trying to pry someone away from Boston or OKC. I'm talking Atlanta, Sacramento, New Orleans.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Top 10 players are not available for any price unless they are asking out or the franchise is going in to rebuild.
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I think you're arguing semantics here. Whether the 5 best players or 10 best players are unavailable isn't really all that relevant to my argument.

My fear is simply that we're going to use 4 picks around the 20th spot in the draft to get 4 players who realistically aren't going to ever be as good as the one player we could've traded those picks for.

Teams overvalue picks horribly in this league. The Jazz ought to take advantage of that.
 
After the Stockton/Malone era we sucked until we drafted DWill and signed Boozer
After the DWill era we were mid until Hayward and Rudy emerged
After we lost Hayward we were on the path to be mid until Donovan became an instant star

We have honestly just been blessed to have been able to transition into new eras finding a star almost immediately after losing one this could be like the dark ages for Utah Jazz fandom
 
JimLes said:
In the real world, there are maybe 3-4 contenders in each conference. Maybe.

I'm not talking about trying to pry someone away from Boston or OKC. I'm talking Atlanta, Sacramento, New Orleans.
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There may be only 3-4 real contenders but there are plenty more teams who are trying to get there and who arent willing to reverse directions. Some of them cant because they dont have their own draft picks.

NOP and Atlanta may teverse directions but both would then fall into the category of rebuilding teams.

So at the end of the day its either budding rebuilders or trade requests (often leading that team to rebuilding).
 
l Abach l said:
I've been thinking about Danny Ainge's actions to-date. It is clear that he attempted to his 2013 Celtics/Nets trade—sending star players away for future draft picks that would end up being lotto picks. It worked for Boston - trading washed, aging superstars like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Nets paid off - the Nets were cheeks (as everyone predicted). ending up in Tatum / Brown.

Key difference with Gobert and Donovan trades: Gobert and Mitchell are still very much in their primes, not past them.

Ainge bet on two things:
  1. Anthony Edwards not reaching his ceiling / potential
  2. Donovan Mitchell leaving Cleveland via free agency
In typical Jazz luck, neither of these have and will pan out. Edwards will likely sign a super-max and keep the Wolves as a 1-4 seed, and Don signed an extension, locking him up for the foreseeable future in a weaker eastern conference.

Ainge is seeing this - he's not an idiot. This has increased his pressure on Hardy / coaching staff to ramp up the forced tank. That maximizes our ability to end up with a top-4 superstar potential young talent.

I'm guessing the rebuild over next few years is the following-
  • Embrace full tank over next two seasons to secure two top-four draft picks.
  • Focus on player development to ensure our young guys today turn into solid role players
  • Maintain cap flexibility to acquire disgruntled superstars by 2026 season
By the 2026 season, the goal would be to have:
  • Two young, foundational high-ceiling / low-floor stars from high draft picks
  • A strong supporting cast of developed players
  • Lauri Markkanen still being in his prime
  • 1-2 disgruntled superstars via either free agency or us trading away the farm (future draft picks)
Thoughts?
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Smartest post I have seen on this forum in a long, long time. Question is… does he need two first round picks or is he going for one and a key free agent signing this summer?
 
Full Tank is just starting so expect 3+ more years. All the vets will be gone by then including hardy. I dont really believe hes a long term jazz coach.
 
The timeline is hard to predict. It all depends on lottery luck and whether we hit our picks or not (the ones we have already made, and the ones we are about to make).

Every missed draft pick is essentially decreasing the overall value of our warchest, and since we are not gonna be in the business of trading away young promising players, we need to either hit our picks or start trading away any vets of value in order to avoid ending up in a situation where we only have our own future picks in the chest. Detroit is actually in that position. They dont have a single FRP incoming from anyone else, and their only truely valuable player assets are the ones they cant trade as those guys are supposed to be part of their future core. Thats not a place you wanna end up in.

We still have Lauri and Walker as positive assets so there is a chance we may add some incoming FRPs that go beyond 2029.... but if we trade them then we are really in a situation where we MUST start hitting our picks to even maintain our overall value.
 
HermanG said:
The timeline is hard to predict. It all depends on lottery luck and whether we hit our picks or not (the ones we have already made, and the ones we are about to make).

Every missed draft pick is essentially decreasing the overall value of our warchest, and since we are not gonna be in the business of trading away young promising players, we need to either hit our picks or start trading away any vets of value in order to avoid ending up in a situation where we only have our own future picks in the chest. Detroit is actually in that position. They dont have a single FRP incoming from anyone else, and their only truely valuable player assets are the ones they cant trade as those guys are supposed to be part of their future core. Thats not a place you wanna end up in.

We still have Lauri and Walker as positive assets so there is a chance we may add some incoming FRPs that go beyond 2029.... but if we trade them then we are really in a situation where we MUST start hitting our picks to even maintain our overall value.
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Good post
I think Sexton is also a positive asset. Especially if we want him to be (play him more minutes and give more volume)

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I’m under the belief that the Jazz are targeting a 2029-2032 window to be in active championship contention.

Tank 24-25 and 25-26.

Develop and determine roles in 26-27 while looking at needs.

Fill roles and bring in an all star in 27-28. Compete.

Make any tweaks in 28-29.

Assuming Ainge gets the right guys at the top of the lottery, this is a really solid strategy.
 
fishonjazz said:
Good post
I think Sexton is also a positive asset. Especially if we want him to be (play him more minutes and give more volume)
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On the contrary. For Collin, the only route to good efficiency and better value is having a very defined bench role, short leash and limited usage. We've seen the reckless Sexton who plays with blinders on, dribbles into the trees, keeps getting blocked and can't guard any modern NBA position. That guy doesn't have a market these days.
 
Tremendous Upside said:
On the contrary. For Collin, the only route to good efficiency and better value is having a very defined bench role, short leash and limited usage.
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Sexton had his best year of his career doing the opposite lol


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fishonjazz said:
Sexton had his best year of his career doing the opposite lol
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He did not.

I guess you didn't watch the games? Collin is at his best when he plays within himself, under control, and remembers the team concept. He was able to do that for a while and looked like a winning player, but it's been rare in his career. That's why there's no market for him. Nobody needs a 6'1'' SG who regularly goes buck wild and only sees the basket. There might be some interest for Sexton if he proved that he's able to play off the bench and not cross the fine line between offensive aggression and recklessness... but I'm not holding my breath. He's pretty much a known quantity around the league.
 
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