theNBAnerd
Well-Known Member
plus, if we get 8 and 14 this year, we likely have no draft picks next year, with only derrick, gordon, enes, alec and the two new guys under contract.
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- Thread starter Stifle Tower
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trigg3r
Well-Known Member
The draft this year is perceived to be much stronger than the draft next year. If I had a choice, I would rather we have to surrender our pick next year.
theNBAnerd
Well-Known Member
that has been debated vehemently... "strong draft" is such a vague term and is impossible to quantify or prove until years after the draft.
my point, though, is simply that having a draft pick is a nice way to add some talent on the cheap, and the 2013-14 jazz are going to need that flexibility more. a second pick in 2012-2013 is likely to get buried on the bench and never play, because he's going to play on a team that already has: al, paul, derrick, enes, gordon, burks, devin, and probably a top 9 pick. (to say nothing of the fact that bell, watson and tinsley are all still under contract and will likely get some minutes.)
my point, though, is simply that having a draft pick is a nice way to add some talent on the cheap, and the 2013-14 jazz are going to need that flexibility more. a second pick in 2012-2013 is likely to get buried on the bench and never play, because he's going to play on a team that already has: al, paul, derrick, enes, gordon, burks, devin, and probably a top 9 pick. (to say nothing of the fact that bell, watson and tinsley are all still under contract and will likely get some minutes.)
And whoever we sign for longer than 1 year this offseason (possibly CJ which is much less likely if we get 2 picks this year. One of the big reasons I want both picks). Or if we trade one of our 3 big expiring contracts for someone.
If none of those happen we would have probably 30-35 million in cap space, and the ability to resign all of our young guys.
Totally agree. And much stronger than last years draft. Players like P Jones, Barnes, and Sullinger would all have been picked 3-5 picks earlier last year and possibly T Jones as well. Guys that are staying this year will probably jump 5-7 spots in next years draft (Mcadoo, Zeller).
Where would DWill and Kanter go in this draft? Both probably after 5. Thompson and all the Euros probably would have all gone after 10.
theNBAnerd
Well-Known Member
they're not stupid, they're not going to make a bunch of multi-year commitments just because they have a couple of roster spots open.
with the GS pick (assuming we get it), the jazz will have a fairly versatile 11-man roster, plus two cheap RFAs to take us to 13. assuming the GS pick is a point guard:
al, kanter
paul, favors, (evans RFA)
hayward, (carroll RFA)
burks, bell
harris, (GS pick), watson, tinsley
plus there's still a 10.5M memo okur trade exception to use. the jazz just plain don't need two picks this summer, especially if it means NO picks going into a fairly important summer of 2013.
Why does it matter if we have a rookie or a second year player to start the 2013 season? A second year player or a rookie is still just one player.
theNBAnerd
Well-Known Member
i'm saying that it would help the jazz to have an additional asset as they go into the offseason that will define the next 10 years of the jazz franchise.
going into NEXT summer, the jazz will have about 16M committed to the four young guys, plus another 3M or so for whomever they pick with the GS pick, and maybe they'll use the TPE on a capable wing player that makes somewhere in the 5-10M range. so you're talking about roughly 25M committed, or something like 30M of cap space.
do they re-sign millsap? re-sign harris? try to lure a marquee free agent? get active in trade discussions and stockpile picks by taking expiring contracts into our cap space for tax-paying teams (like they did in the mid-00s)? or do you just focus on outbidding on mid-level guys because you can pay them more than teams that are restricted to the MLE?
those decisions will decide what kind of team we have for the rest of the decade. don't you think the jazz would benefit from having an extra asset in their pocket when that all begins?
going into NEXT summer, the jazz will have about 16M committed to the four young guys, plus another 3M or so for whomever they pick with the GS pick, and maybe they'll use the TPE on a capable wing player that makes somewhere in the 5-10M range. so you're talking about roughly 25M committed, or something like 30M of cap space.
do they re-sign millsap? re-sign harris? try to lure a marquee free agent? get active in trade discussions and stockpile picks by taking expiring contracts into our cap space for tax-paying teams (like they did in the mid-00s)? or do you just focus on outbidding on mid-level guys because you can pay them more than teams that are restricted to the MLE?
those decisions will decide what kind of team we have for the rest of the decade. don't you think the jazz would benefit from having an extra asset in their pocket when that all begins?
theNBAnerd
Well-Known Member
hahaha, i'll help... by saying what i've been saying all along. NJN and TOR have brutal schedules, too, and i don't think cleveland and sacramento can catch them. GSW has at least one win left -- probably the home game vs. new orleans -- that that'll be enough to finish 8th worst.
if they finish with 23 wins, then NJ has to finish 2-5 for a coin toss, 3-4 to pass them. unlikely since they finish with @phi, bos, mia, nyk, @mil, phi, @tor. i don't see two wins in there, especially since lopez is shut down.
23 wins also means toronto has to finish 3-4 to force a coin toss, 4-3 to pass them. their remaining sked is bos, @atl, atl, @mia, @det, @mil, njn. i don't see three wins there, either. bargnagni is out, while calderon and kleiza are day-to-day.
Stifle Tower
Punch Bowl Re-Filler
New Orleans is horrible and SA will be resting their Big 3 for the final game. That one could be brutal...SA without their key players and GS trying to do everything (at home) to lose. It could get very, very ugly in Oakland. Perhaps even bad enough for Stern to do something about tanking.
