Warriors pull off the tank in the final minute.
Lottery Standings
- Thread starter Stifle Tower
- Start date
trigg3r
Well-Known Member
You knew it was coming. Best case scenario now is that they beat SA. That being said, it will be interesting to see what happens with the Bulls/Pacers and SA/Suns games.
NotDeadYet
Well-Known Member
To sum up:
Best case scenario; GS beats SA. We automatically get the pick.
If GS loses:
Worst case - A 3-way tie for 6th, 7th, and 8th worst record between FS, NJ/Tor, and Clev.
Best case - A 2-way tie for 6th and 7th worst between GS and NJ/Tor.
Best case scenario; GS beats SA. We automatically get the pick.
If GS loses:
Worst case - A 3-way tie for 6th, 7th, and 8th worst record between FS, NJ/Tor, and Clev.
Best case - A 2-way tie for 6th and 7th worst between GS and NJ/Tor.
What? I'm pretty sure the best case is a 2 way tie for the 8th worst record between GS and NJ/Tor.
Edit: Worst case is a 3 way tie for the 8th spot between Cleveland, GS, and Toronto. Cleveland has to win it's last two.
I took a closer look.
I'd say the Jazz still have about a 65 to 70 % chance of getting the GS pick, but this is hard to estimate, because it depends on how dedicated they are to tanking, and how the Spurs will respond to their tanking. These are hard variables to quantify.
Assuming that Warriors lose to the Spurs, then the Jazz chances will still be about 60%.
I'd say the Jazz still have about a 65 to 70 % chance of getting the GS pick, but this is hard to estimate, because it depends on how dedicated they are to tanking, and how the Spurs will respond to their tanking. These are hard variables to quantify.
Assuming that Warriors lose to the Spurs, then the Jazz chances will still be about 60%.
margodydek
Well-Known Member
If GS loses to SA, then won't they be tied with NJ or Toronto, which would result in a coin toss which (correct me if I'm wrong) typically has 50/50 odds.
margodydek
Well-Known Member
I'll try to clean this up:
Best case (in terms of just getting the pick): GS ties DET for 8th/9th worst, with both finishing at 24-42
Next best case: GS has sole position of the 8th worst record, they'd beat SA, and DET would beat Philly
Next best case: GS is tied with NJ or TOR for 7th and 8th, which would result in a coin toss (I've heard the coin toss would be this Friday)
Worst Case: GS is tied with CLE and NJ or TOR for 6th, 7th and 8th.
OK, which mistakes did I make, because I'm sure I made at least one.
As I mentioned , lottery balls are a factor, raising the chances from 50% to about 60%
margodydek
Well-Known Member
Wouldn't our odds go down when you factor in the lottery balls? Basically we'd have a 50/50 shot of them being slotted in the 8th spot, and then they'd still have a chance of jumping into the lottery, so basically our odds would be about 46% of getting the pick. This is considering they lose to SA.
That is still pretty good, all things considered.
margodydek
Well-Known Member
Amen. Kevin Pelton sent out a tweet last night that broke down the odds of where the GS pick would end up (pre-lottery): 7th: 40.9%, 8th: 54.3% and 9th: 4.8%.
So he thinks there's about a 5% chance that GS beats the Spurs, and this was assuming SA doesn't rest anyone, so those odds could be more in our favor if they sit their stars.