My hot take on what I'd do in the off-season.

jom2003

Well-Known Member
The thing is, if we keep everyone, I doubt we make it to the playoff next season with Curry/Klay coming back, Suns riding on their momentum from the bubble, and wolves figuring it out with all the talents they've had. People failed to realize just how flawed this roster really is and what an amazing job Quin has done to keep us in it.
We were swept by the Nuggets during the regular season.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
I think the DL/Snyder dynamic is an odd one, even if they don't. What I mean by that is DL is definitely the 401k/index fund guy who wants to be slow and steady, put the money in without thinking about it, trust the strategy, then look at long-term gains. QS is a day trader, but he comes in the skin of appearing as a long-term-investment guy. His gains and losses are all over the place, but when mistaken for a long-term strategy, many are reassured to just trust the long-term vision. Inevitably, there will be a few days where the runs are huge, and the gentle reminder is, "see, we told you to be patient," but just as those few days of runs are high, there can be a couple days that sink any gains. But those highs definitely feel good, but unless the timing for when to get in and out of the market is perfect, the decisions typically aren't going to coincide with the best strategy.

We need to stop treating it like the dichotomy. It's cool that we want to keep pushing the sex machine stuff, but ultimately the best preparation for going deep into the post-season is to just get out there as early as possible and win games. That's it. Focus on the here and now and stop trying to think 25 moves ahead. We kept hearing that Quin costing us games with running the iso-ball was getting us ready for the playoffs, and that the regular season games didn't matter as much because he was hatching some genius schemes.

The post-season just came and went.

He's a good coach. But perhaps we could use more of the passionate Quin and less of the sex machine Quin.
I get where you are headed but I kinda disagree on Quin... maybe in the X's and O's he is trying things but I think he has been kinda vanilla and that was part of the problem. The execution of the defensive strategy from games 1-6 wasn't perfect... but the whole "hey if Jamal hits shots in the mid range on pullup and if Jokic hits wide *** open threes then we will lose... the numbers say we won't lose". But we lose a lot to team with shot making guards because they go off on us. There are generally no adjustments. He seems to say we will do this one thing and that is it. Nick Nurse tries zone and all sorts of ****. Quin is more cut from the cloth of Bud... where this is what we do and it will work against 65% of the teams in the league.

Was listening to Locke talk about our options and say we haven't blitzed the pick and roll all season why do it now... He's right but that means you failed to try things earlier.

Personnel is where he really failed. YOU were the champion of the TB can't play in the playoffs... I knew it was an issue. He really never tried much with Morgan or Brantley as front court options. Niang was the safe vanilla option that was likely to struggle to stay on the court. Morgan and Brantley theoretically could give us something we needed... but we never tried them. Same thing with Mudiay and Oni. Mudiay is the better player (I think) but the things he wanted him to do weren't in his bag.

DL is very much the safe, self preservation guy. Quin is viewed as a super genius but I think he misses on some fairly obvious things. Maybe its overthinking things. He seems to want the beautiful game Spurs basketball but that only works with super intelligent players. Hell even Popovich adjusts his systems and philosophies to fit his personnel.

I think they are both very much the same tier of good... you can definitely do a lot worse but they are probably a little over-rated.
 

FAILED STATE

Well-Known Member
I’m too pissed and lazy right now to get into the subtleties of the cap, our contracts, and then imagine how much flexibility we MIGHT have. Instead I see pretty quickly how little flexibility there isn’t.

The Conley trade is looking like one of the worst trades league-wide over a 5-10 year span. And it came at a supremely bad time with respect to Donovan and Rudy’s next contracts and the opportunity to vault the team into the next tier. Conley was supposed to do that, but he’s done the opposite: he’s hamstrung the defense while playing a miniature version of year-3 Rodney Hood on offense—for $35 million. It’s hard to come back from this trade—since he’s definitely opting in AND our org doesn’t have what it takes to move him to the bench (where he might actually help the team [ignoring the price, of course]).

In each of the last two seasons, I think we’ve tried to decrease our dependence on Joe. But they haven’t figured out how to do it. I think this postseason shows that we really have to crack that nut. Even if we keep him in the starting lineup, we need to find another PnR creator.

Maybe this is a part of Mitchell’s evolution? Dunno, but right now he’s resorting to too many dangerous outlet passes after his initial and secondary reads get cut off. He isn’t getting to that third read often enough, especially once he gets deeper into the paint.

But, considering our financial situation, I’m not sure how we find this PnR guy AND fix the defense. If there was some magical combination of moves (dump Ed, move Tony, shave off a couple of the 1.5Mish contracts) that allowed us to bring back Favors and sign a guy like Torrey Craig, then maybe we have a competitive defense again. You’d have to nut up and move Conley to the bench, though. And you’d need more from Mitchell on defense

Mitchell/Conley
Joe/Clarkson/Oni
Royce/Craig/Brantley
Bogdanovic/Morgan/Favors
Gobert/Favors

You can bank a lot on the defensive positional flexibility of guys like Oni, Brantley, Royce, Craig, Morgan, and to some extent Favors. These guys can be plugged into a few different spots and we can recommit to our defensive identity.
 
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FAILED STATE

Well-Known Member
I get where you are headed but I kinda disagree on Quin... maybe in the X's and O's he is trying things but I think he has been kinda vanilla and that was part of the problem. The execution of the defensive strategy from games 1-6 wasn't perfect... but the whole "hey if Jamal hits shots in the mid range on pullup and if Jokic hits wide *** open threes then we will lose... the numbers say we won't lose". But we lose a lot to team with shot making guards because they go off on us. There are generally no adjustments. He seems to say we will do this one thing and that is it. Nick Nurse tries zone and all sorts of ****. Quin is more cut from the cloth of Bud... where this is what we do and it will work against 65% of the teams in the league.

Was listening to Locke talk about our options and say we haven't blitzed the pick and roll all season why do it now... He's right but that means you failed to try things earlier.

Personnel is where he really failed. YOU were the champion of the TB can't play in the playoffs... I knew it was an issue. He really never tried much with Morgan or Brantley as front court options. Niang was the safe vanilla option that was likely to struggle to stay on the court. Morgan and Brantley theoretically could give us something we needed... but we never tried them. Same thing with Mudiay and Oni. Mudiay is the better player (I think) but the things he wanted him to do weren't in his bag.

DL is very much the safe, self preservation guy. Quin is viewed as a super genius but I think he misses on some fairly obvious things. Maybe its overthinking things. He seems to want the beautiful game Spurs basketball but that only works with super intelligent players. Hell even Popovich adjusts his systems and philosophies to fit his personnel.

I think they are both very much the same tier of good... you can definitely do a lot worse but they are probably a little over-rated.
This. Thank you.
 

LoPo

Well-Known Member
I love our guy. But not sure how you rationalize this.
MJ had 3 losing seasons and was 1-9 in the playoffs. He had a 63 point game, but got swept.

LBJ didn't even make the playoffs until his third year.

Don was the first rookie since Wilt to lead his team to a playoff series win. He's the 3rd fastest all time to 5,000 points. He just set the record for most points ever scored in the first round of the playoffs. He just scored the 3rd most points in the history of playoff basketball.

Just for the first 3 seasons, he's had a top 3-5 start of all time. Better than legends.
 

jom2003

Well-Known Member
First thing I do - I offer Mitchell 5max. If he doesn't accept, ask him if he would accept any other offer and if he wants something like a 3 year deal I sign him to it and immediately start listening to trade offers for him(not actively searching for trades, but actively listening).

Second thing I do - figure out what the max would be that I would like to pay Gobert and offer something in that range to him. If he doesn't accept, immediately begin search for trade partner.

If none of them want to stay for what I offer them, start selling off the whole team. Ingles, Bogdanovic, Conley... all of them ... rebuild.

If Mitchell takes the 5max but Rudy doesn't take what I offer, trade Rudy either for high draft picks or win now pieces in the timeline of Mitchel. If we trade Rudy, I might actually do Conley for Horford. Or take Favors back. Or look for a trade for Gobert that includes a young-ish center in the timeline of Mitchell(Turner? Allen? Wendel Carter?)

If Rudy takes whatever offer we make but Mitchell doesn't - keep the team with hope for one more run next year... while listening to the market for Mitchell... If you love an offer take it and try to retool around Gobert for as long as we can be competitive... then... rebuild...

If both want to stay and seem like they want to work together, keep them and try to retool around them... find a longer and/or more athletic wing.
Yep. If I'm the GM I'd get ready to blow up this Jazz team at anytime now.
At this point it's not even a guarantee that we make it to the playoff next season with this current roster. Conley and Ingles will get older and become even more unplayable. Bojan is getting older and needs time to recover from a big surgery. Folks like Niang and Bradley won't become anything more than the end of bench guys. Royce would've sat at the end of the bench too if he isn't playing for us. Wouldn't be surprised to see the team struggle to find a playoff spot next season unless we work out some miracles this offseason
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
Let em fly, brother
You won't like them... it might start with Rudy and not giving him a max deal. The league just isn't in a place where he can have the impact and success he does in the regular season and duplicate it in the playoffs. We are seeing it with Giannis a little too. Instead of the unanimous MVP he is like a top 5 guy. Rudy might be a top 15regular season guy.. in the playoffs it might be top 30. He wasn't the reason we lost last night... but he also wasn't dominant like I'd like him to be and Jokic definitely ate.

There seems to be a ceiling there. If he can't dominate inside on the Nuggets and can't limit them or Jokic on offense that's a problem. There are too many teams that can pull him away from the basket and you will run into those teams in the playoffs at some point. Not that he gets played off the floor but if you are paying him as your 1st or 2nd best player that is hard.

I have a lot of thoughts on Mike but they aren't unique and likely things you've already heard from me.
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
Yep. If I'm the GM I'd get ready to blow up this Jazz team at anytime now.
At this point it's not even a guarantee that we make it to the playoff next season with this current roster. Conley and Ingles will get older and become even more unplayable. Bojan is getting older and needs time to recover from a big surgery. Folks like Niang and Bradley won't become anything more than the end of bench guys. Royce would've sat at the end of the bench too if he isn't playing for us. Wouldn't be surprised to see the team struggle to find a playoff spot next season unless we work out some miracles this offseason
Healthy Rudy and DM and we will make the playoffs. Rudy is fantastic in the regular season. The west will be a bloodbath and it might be close... but I'd bet we make the playoffs even without big changes.
 

jom2003

Well-Known Member
Healthy Rudy and DM and we will make the playoffs. Rudy is fantastic in the regular season. The west will be a bloodbath and it might be close... but I'd bet we make the playoffs even without big changes.
Then here comes my honest question: Which team would Steph/Klay Warriors replace? I'd say its either gonna be us or the Blazers. That is not taking the Suns and the Wolves into the equation.
 

Bawse Dawg

Well-Known Member
MJ had 3 losing seasons and was 1-9 in the playoffs. He had a 63 point game, but got swept.

LBJ didn't even make the playoffs until his third year.

Don was the first rookie since Wilt to lead his team to a playoff series win. He's the 3rd fastest all time to 5,000 points. He just set the record for most points ever scored in the first round of the playoffs. He just scored the 3rd most points in the history of playoff basketball.

Just for the first 3 seasons, he's had a top 3-5 start of all time. Better than legends.
Do actual stats or surrounding cast mean anything with this comparison? Jordan scored 63 in the Boston Garden against possibly the greatest team of all time. I'm not putting Mitchell's performance on that level.

We don't have to diminish what Don has done at all. He is incredible. But LeBron and MJ are LeBron and MJ. Even if everything else was equal, they are simply different specimens physically. Which says a lot about how Don makes it work with less, but those guys will always have a different kind of ceiling. These are the top 2 players ever not a fair comparison for anyone.

What I was seeing from Don this series is the next AI/Kobe type player. He has that mentality. The kind of player that fans of all teams love just because of their approach to the game (playing for the Jazz does him no favors there) he's impossible not to root for.
 

jom2003

Well-Known Member
Healthy Rudy and DM and we will make the playoffs. Rudy is fantastic in the regular season. The west will be a bloodbath and it might be close... but I'd bet we make the playoffs even without big changes.
Though I'd trust DM to be healthy, Rudy's clearly had his ups and downs with injuries. We'd definitely be in the conversation for the No1 pick next year if we are to lose Rudy
 

Handlogten's Heros

Well-Known Member
2019 Award Winner
Then here comes my honest question: Which team would Steph/Klay Warriors replace? I'd say its either gonna be us or the Blazers. That is not taking the Suns and the Wolves into the equation.
OKC or Portland (only if Portland pivots)... could be Houston... that owner is crazy and they will have a new coach. Lose tonight and they could get wild.
 

FAILED STATE

Well-Known Member
You won't like them... it might start with Rudy and not giving him a max deal. The league just isn't in a place where he can have the impact and success he does in the regular season and duplicate it in the playoffs. We are seeing it with Giannis a little too. Instead of the unanimous MVP he is like a top 5 guy. Rudy might be a top 15regular season guy.. in the playoffs it might be top 30. He wasn't the reason we lost last night... but he also wasn't dominant like I'd like him to be and Jokic definitely ate.

There seems to be a ceiling there. If he can't dominate inside on the Nuggets and can't limit them or Jokic on offense that's a problem. There are too many teams that can pull him away from the basket and you will run into those teams in the playoffs at some point. Not that he gets played off the floor but if you are paying him as your 1st or 2nd best player that is hard.

I have a lot of thoughts on Mike but they aren't unique and likely things you've already heard from me.
My mind is open to these things. Definitely open. I think part of the problem we have in the playoffs with Rudy can be summed up with a baseball metaphor: Rudy is a dominant starting pitcher, but we keep asking him to pitch complete games and the playoffs especially is about the flexibility of your bullpen. If we had the right 4-5 guy who could take some reps while Rudy played some possessions in the gaps, and if we got good at a zone scheme, then I think we could give teams some diversity of looks (a bullpen, if you will). Our self-same consistency around Rudy is theee main problem (—especially when he’s surrounded by mostly below-average defenders.

If we get him some help, and add some different coverages, then I think it’s worth it to keep going.

I agree full-on with your Snyder-as-vanilla take, so this plan is contingent on his evolution as much as anything.
 

Roy_McAvoy

Well-Known Member
I think the Pacers are a compelling trade partner for both sides. I think a trade could look something like this:

Jazz receive:
-Myles Turner
-Aaron Holiday (He's a big pick up because he can play PG and can shoot. He's young and on a cheap rookie contract. He adds cheap talent to Jazz with the possibility of keeping him long term if they choose to.)
-2021 2nd round draft pick

Pacers receive:
-Rudy Gobert
-Justin Wright Foreman
 

jom2003

Well-Known Member
OKC or Portland (only if Portland pivots)... could be Houston... that owner is crazy and they will have a new coach. Lose tonight and they could get wild.
OKC would only get better over time with their young talents and all the picks they've had, whereas the only one on our team who we can trust to become better is Donovan. Houston won't miss the playoffs as long as Harden keeps showing up for games at his current %.
 
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