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Game Thread NBA Draft Lottery - May 12, 2025

Added to Calendar: 05-12-25

My palms will be sweaty from now until Monday night. Twice I have had dreams we won the lotto (again last night) I don't have a lot of vivid dreams... but those ones I felt in my soul. I am such a nerd.
 
The Midnight said:
So we have a coin toss chance at the 5th pick?

Wow.. that sucks.
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The odds favor us ending up with the 5th pick. It seems, even looking more at past drafts, that the teams in the 4th-8th spots have better chances of ending up in #1 or #2. One of them, as a group, has a better chance at it than we do, frankly. So it seems they have managed to break the lottery down so that tanking does not guarantee anything.
 
LogGrad98 said:
The odds favor us ending up with the 5th pick. It seems, even looking more at past drafts, that the teams in the 4th-8th spots have better chances of ending up in #1 or #2. One of them, as a group, has a better chance at it than we do, frankly. So it seems they have managed to break the lottery down so that tanking does not guarantee anything.
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I can confirm that the team 4-8 do not have a better chance landing at 1 or 2. My source is math. Its a small sample and yes we likely end up at 5... but we still gave ourselves the best chance which was the responsible thing to do.
 
I mean, we have a slightly better chance of landing 1-4 (52.1%) so technically we will "probably" end up better than 5. But yes pretty close to a coin flip.
 
There's some kind of rounding error going on in this chart though. Some of the teams percentages (2 and 3 in particular) don't add up to 100%
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I can confirm that the team 4-8 do not have a better chance landing at 1 or 2. My source is math. Its a small sample and yes we likely end up at 5... but we still gave ourselves the best chance which was the responsible thing to do.
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Than any of them individually yes, but as a group, no. As a group they have a 40% chance of one of them moving up, where we have a 14% chance of it.
 
LogGrad98 said:
The odds favor us ending up with the 5th pick. It seems, even looking more at past drafts, that the teams in the 4th-8th spots have better chances of ending up in #1 or #2. One of them, as a group, has a better chance at it than we do, frankly. So it seems they have managed to break the lottery down so that tanking does not guarantee anything.
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I mean, if you're grouping them, then its more likely that someone in just either the 6 or the 7 spot will win the #1 than we do individually. So, yeah, much better chances that someone in the 4-8 spot will end up #1 or #2 if you are combining all of them. We still have a better shot than any individual one of them though.

Like, that doesn't mean they are better off because they are in that group. I could say there's a 58% chance a team outside the top 3 will win the #1 pick. Its true, but it doesn't mean you have a better chance if you are in that group than if you're in the 1-3 group.
 
GunterD said:
I mean, if you're grouping them, then its more likely that someone in just either the 6 or the 7 spot will win the #1 than we do individually. So, yeah, much better chances that someone in the 4-8 spot will end up #1 or #2 if you are combining all of them. We still have a better shot than any individual one of them though.

Like, that doesn't mean they are better off because they are in that group. I could say there's a 58% chance a team outside the top 3 will win the #1 pick. Its true, but it doesn't mean you have a better chance if you are in that group than if you're in the 1-3 group.
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Yes but it supports the conspiracy theory better, so there is that;.
 
Lolz at everyone appeal to teh maths. We’re the Utah Jazz. Even with a floor of 5th, when we somehow end up landing the sixth pick, there’s going to be a rash apologetic articles about “why it actually makes sense.”
 
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