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Game Thread Nov 23, 2025 06:00PM MT: Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz

Added to Calendar: 11-23-25

So a little follow up to our side convo that went on. I was digging through some lineups/wowy data, here are some loose conclusion I came up with.

- I still think Cody Williams is a tank commander.
- I do think @SoberasHotRod 's point about not actively being has some validity, but you can be an active or inactive tank commander
- On offense, Nurk is THE tank commander
- A player's on court offensive rating can more or less be traced back to the proportion of minutes they play with Nurk
- Ever player's ORtg drops like crazy when sharing the court with Nurk
- The Jazz have also played awful in garbage time (low leverage minutes), but Cody hasn't played a large amount of garbage time minutes
- Garbage time + playing with Nurk are the two obvious anchors from ORtg
- Cody just started playing once Kessler was out and Nurk got the start, meaning a lower proportion of minutes with Nurk
- Ace gets double whammy because he was on the bench when Nurk was on the bench and also got moved to the starting lineup around the same time as Nurk
- We'll probably have an elite offense under Will Hardy with any reasonable amount of talent

All this data comes before tonight, and of course because sample size is so small one game can shift a lot of this. My general conclusion is that Nurk is THE tank commander, so @SoberasHotRod has a point there. But Nurk being awful doesn't mean Cody isn't also awful. A larger sample size will likely prove this out. The idea of making sweeping conclusions on <150 minutes is the biggest issue here.
 
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It would be really nice if we just opened a "Bitch about Cody Williams" subforum with the Genetal Sports forum and political forum so we didnt need to have it take over every game thread. . .

I figure it would take 20% of the posters off of the main site.
 
So a little follow up to our side convo that went on. I was digging through some lineups/wowy data, here are some loose conclusion I came up with.

- I still think Cody Williams is a tank commander.
- I do think @SoberasHotRod 's point about not actively being has some validity, but you can be an active or inactive tank commander
- On offense, Nurk is THE tank commander
- A player's on court offensive rating can more or less be traced back to the proportion of minutes they play with Nurk
- Ever player's ORtg drops like crazy when sharing the court with Nurk
- The Jazz have also played awful in garbage time (low leverage minutes), but Cody hasn't played a large amount of garbage time minutes
- Garbage time + playing with Nurk are the two obvious anchors from ORtg
- Cody just started playing once Kessler was out and Nurk got the start, meaning a lower proportion of minutes with Nurk
- Ace gets double whammy because he was on the bench when Nurk was on the bench and also got moved to the starting lineup around the same time as Nurk
- We'll probably have an elite offense under Will Hardy with any reasonable amount of talent

All this data comes before tonight, and of course because sample size is so small one game can shift a lot of this. My general conclusion is that Nurk is THE tank commander, so @SoberasHotRod has a point there. But Nurk being awful doesn't mean Cody isn't also awful. A larger sample size will likely prove this out. The idea of making sweeping conclusions on <150 minutes is the biggest issue here.

Cody's direct impact is pretty straightforward. If you took every time he touched the ball and replaced it with an average offensive player we would score 1-2more points per game on those possessions. Assuming his defensive impact is about 0, then we are really only talking about a 1-2 points per game. On the other hand if you take a guy like Jordan Clarkson at his worst he is going to take way more touches and play much worse defense and have a much higher direct impact, which I've estimated at 3-4 points on offense and another 3-4 points on defense, so 6-8 points per game which is what I would consider a tank commander.

In order for Cody to have that type of indirect impact he would have to affect spacing and flow so much that his teammates would be scoring 0.25 points per possession less than average while he was on the court. That isn't impossible, but would be very difficult. This is what my sweeping conclusions are based off of.

FWIW, I find it very plausible that it takes time for teams to react to someone playing as bad as Cody and to give him the type of disrespect that we saw in the last two games. So that could be an explanation of why our offense didn't suffer too much in the games Cody played in before OKC, but we could expect it to suffer much more in future games.
 
It would be really nice if we just opened a "Bitch about Cody Williams" subforum with the Genetal Sports forum and political forum so we didnt need to have it take over every game thread. . .

I figure it would take 20% of the posters off of the main site.

This is 100% my bad. And this will be my last post about Cody as a tank commander. If anyone wants to discuss further you can PM me.

I do apologize, I should have ignored a lot of posts here.
 
This is 100% my bad. And this will be my last post about Cody as a tank commander. If anyone wants to discuss further you can PM me.

I do apologize, I should have ignored a lot of posts here.
eh, give yourself a break. framer needs to suck it up. it's easy to bitch about a guy who when he comes in, it is literally like playing 4 on 5 on the offensive side of the ball. as long as he's playing meaningful minutes and taking minutes from other deserving players (who will also help the tank), jf should bitch away - in the game threads and other threads.
 
Cody's direct impact is pretty straightforward. If you took every time he touched the ball and replaced it with an average offensive player we would score 1-2more points per game on those possessions. Assuming his defensive impact is about 0, then we are really only talking about a 1-2 points per game. On the other hand if you take a guy like Jordan Clarkson at his worst he is going to take way more touches and play much worse defense and have a much higher direct impact, which I've estimated at 3-4 points on offense and another 3-4 points on defense, so 6-8 points per game which is what I would consider a tank commander.

In order for Cody to have that type of indirect impact he would have to affect spacing and flow so much that his teammates would be scoring 0.25 points per possession less than average while he was on the court. That isn't impossible, but would be very difficult. This is what my sweeping conclusions are based off of.

FWIW, I find it very plausible that it takes time for teams to react to someone playing as bad as Cody and to give him the type of disrespect that we saw in the last two games. So that could be an explanation of why our offense didn't suffer too much in the games Cody played in before OKC, but we could expect it to suffer much more in future games.

I think you can be both an active and passive tank commander. Cody’s lack of ability goes beyond spacing and the defense respecting him. My support for that would simply be that we had an entire season of that last year. Cody was as bad or worse than the Nurk this year and I think it was that way immediately. So why is it different this year? I think it’s just the case that weird things can happen in such small sample sizes.
 
The good news is that the instant we stop playing tank commanders we’ll have a top 10 offense or even greater. I have my questions about Hardy as a defensive coach, but he can coach offense for sure.
 
So a little follow up to our side convo that went on. I was digging through some lineups/wowy data, here are some loose conclusion I came up with.

- I still think Cody Williams is a tank commander.
- I do think @SoberasHotRod 's point about not actively being has some validity, but you can be an active or inactive tank commander
- On offense, Nurk is THE tank commander
- A player's on court offensive rating can more or less be traced back to the proportion of minutes they play with Nurk
- Ever player's ORtg drops like crazy when sharing the court with Nurk
- The Jazz have also played awful in garbage time (low leverage minutes), but Cody hasn't played a large amount of garbage time minutes
- Garbage time + playing with Nurk are the two obvious anchors from ORtg
- Cody just started playing once Kessler was out and Nurk got the start, meaning a lower proportion of minutes with Nurk
- Ace gets double whammy because he was on the bench when Nurk was on the bench and also got moved to the starting lineup around the same time as Nurk
- We'll probably have an elite offense under Will Hardy with any reasonable amount of talent

All this data comes before tonight, and of course because sample size is so small one game can shift a lot of this. My general conclusion is that Nurk is THE tank commander, so @SoberasHotRod has a point there. But Nurk being awful doesn't mean Cody isn't also awful. A larger sample size will likely prove this out. The idea of making sweeping conclusions on QUOTE]Thanks for the interesting data

Sent from my OPD2203 using Tapatalk
 
Is the stuff about garbage time true? If so, back it up, I'm open to new information.
Yes, and it is not limited to the Jazz. In general, on really bad teams the players who often play in garbage time (after the starters were decidedly destroyed) have an artificially inflated offensive, defensive and net ratings.

For example, on the Hornets the player with the highest offensive and net rating is Cody's twin, Tidjane Salaun. On the Nets MPJ is only the 6th in the net rating behind a bunch of no-names, and on the Pelicans the player with the highest NETRTG is the mighty Karlo Matkovich (while Herb Jones and Trey Murphy are in the middle of the roster, with the average or below-average rating).

Now, specifically for the Jazz, Cody regularly finishes the blowouts. The ones that really pulled up his averages compared to the actual good players were the games against the Charlotte (the starters were destroyed in the 1st Q and ended up being -18, -20, while Cody played when the game was already decided and ended it with +2) and another loss against Minnesota ( in the same manner our best players ended up with -20 to -30, while Cody sailed in for the junk minutes for -3). It does not always work - for example, OKC kept destroying our end-of-the-bench with Cody even in the 4th - but usually everybody is chill in the garbage time and the opposite team's deep bench is rarely as deep as on OKC, so it definitely lifts the averages quite a bit.
 
The most damning thing about players like Cody is not their advanced stats but the fact that they are routinely delegated to play garbage minutes on garbage teams.
 
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