Offer Middleton the Max and then Trade Burks, 12th pick and GSW '17 pick for top 6 pick.

[Stifle Tower]

I wish more posters here would make an effort to understand what's happening with the cap over the next few years. Zero chance of adding a player like Middleton, Butler or Leonard. Their current teams will not so much as blink at matching any offer, considering what those kinds of players will cost after next year. Having said that, if we did have any chance whatsoever at adding that kind of talent, there's no question we should do it before the cap jumps. Forget the potential logjam concerns. Utah needs to be very aggressive this offseason, because the landscape is about to change dramatically. Now is not the time to stand pat, because player values are about to jump significantly. I expect this offseason to be more exciting than a lot of fans might think.

I also think we need to project long-term what the Jazz' cap situation will be like after all our players come off their rookie deals. Gobert is likely going to be eligible for a 5/30% deal (all he needs to do is make two all-NBA teams (doesn't have to be all-NBA first; it can be second or third). He EASILY does that over the next 2 seasons. He may even get nominated this year. That COULD mean $25M/per (but hopefully he gives us a break). Hayward is going to want $20M+. Favors is likely in that range. So Jazz could be at $60-$65M with just 3 players against a cap of $100M. Sounds like a lot left to spend, but really it's not. Add in another starting wing (Burks?) and PG (Exum?). A 3rd wing (Hood?) and a third big (Tomic? Booker?). The Jazz are over the cap with 7-9 more roster spots to fill.

Also, don't forget offering a max contract to someone requires Utah to renounce Booker, all their exceptions and most of their free agents. We'd only have the room-MLE of $2.5M. After that, it's minimum deals. So no Booker, no Tomic and a logjam at the wings. IMO, we already made our big free agent signing at SG. His name is Alec Burks and he shot 38% on his 3's last season. We got him for $10M. Hood shot 37% (after a horrible start) and Hayward, the weakest link, was at 36%. Oh yeah, Slow-Mo didn't do too poorly as a backup at 36%.

IMO, our money is better spent acquiring another big and a PG, since both Exum and Burke had awful shooting percentages. PG is our weakest link right now.

 

[Stifle Tower]

You're stuck in rookie all dat matter doe mode. The Jazz can let Burke rot on the end of the bench. Get over him.

Yes, they can. OK, so exile Burke to water boy, Don't mention him in trades.
Who plays PG behind Exum? That's my whole point. The #1 priority, IMO is to upgrade the point. Our PG's shot 35%/31% and 37%/32%. Obviously, we're hoping Exum improves a lot. And he mitigates his poor shooting by playing good defense and not taking a lot of shots. Trey is just the opposite. He's a poor-percentage, high-volume chucker.

Do you advocate continuing to give Trey 30 mins/per? Does that help the team?

So let's say zero prioirty to trading Trey, but a HUGE prioirity in finding a better solution as a "backup" PG. Wouldn't really care if Trey was getting 5-10 mins/per, but in reality, Trey was playing as much as Dante. I don't see Cotton as a great PG who comes in and averages 24 mins/per. And Exum? Will he make a substantial leap next season? Will he play 30-35 mins? Jazz are held back by their PG's right now.

 

[Jazz4ever]

I also think we need to project long-term what the Jazz' cap situation will be like after all our players come off their rookie deals. Gobert is likely going to be eligible for a 5/30% deal (all he needs to do is make two all-NBA teams (doesn't have to be all-NBA first; it can be second or third). He EASILY does that over the next 2 seasons. He may even get nominated this year. That COULD mean $25M/per (but hopefully he gives us a break). Hayward is going to want $20M+. Favors is likely in that range. So Jazz could be at $60-$65M with just 3 players against a cap of $100M. Sounds like a lot left to spend, but really it's not. Add in another starting wing (Burks?) and PG (Exum?). A 3rd wing (Hood?) and a third big (Tomic? Booker?). The Jazz are over the cap with 7-9 more roster spots to fill.

Also, don't forget offering a max contract to someone requires Utah to renounce Booker, all their exceptions and most of their free agents. We'd only have the room-MLE of $2.5M. After that, it's minimum deals. So no Booker, no Tomic and a logjam at the wings. IMO, we already made our big free agent signing at SG. His name is Alec Burks and he shot 38% on his 3's last season. We got him for $10M. Hood shot 37% (after a horrible start) and Hayward, the weakest link, was at 36%. Oh yeah, Slow-Mo didn't do too poorly as a backup at 36%.

IMO, our money is better spent acquiring another big and a PG, since both Exum and Burke had awful shooting percentages. PG is our weakest link right now.

All the more reason to go lock someone up now. The cap of 100 million will not effect the Jazz' ability to retain its own players, but it will limit them on the free agent market.
Remember the Jazz will safely be able to go to 120-130 million to retain their players before hitting the tax.

 

[Stifle Tower]

All the more reason to go lock someone up now. The cap of 100 million will not effect the Jazz' ability to retain its own players, but it will limit them on the free agent market.
Remember the Jazz will safely be able to go to 120-130 million to retain their players before hitting the tax.

With a cap at $100M in my scenario, the Jazz only have $20M to spend on 7-9 players before reaching the luxury tax, which they're not going to exceed for more than a 1-yr "emergency," IMO. $20M isn't a lot to spend for 7 players, especially if any of them are veterans. I think you start looking at trade-offs when you try to go "lock someone up now." Pay Middleton $15M and you need to let Burks go. He's not going to be happy playing 15-20 mins. off the bench. Nor is Hood. Or maybe you lock someone up now so you don't have to pay $20M+ to Hayward in 2 years.

But let's say Utah DOES offer a max contract to Middleton. Who are the Jazz' bigs next season? They have to renounce Booker to even make an offer and he would certainly sign with another team. He's not coming back for $2.5M! Tomic re-sogns with Barcelona because he's not taking that amount of money to come over. Perhaps Pleiss? And a draft pick to back up Favors?

 

[green]

You realize that if we add a wing player, Hood's minutes go from 30 a game to 10-15. And Ingles isn't brought back?

No thanks. We have other positions (PG and C) that need the money a lot more.

 

[Jazz4ever]

With a cap at $100M in my scenario, the Jazz only have $20M to spend on 7-9 players before reaching the luxury tax, which they're not going to exceed for more than a 1-yr "emergency," IMO. $20M isn't a lot to spend for 7 players, especially if any of them are veterans. I think you start looking at trade-offs when you try to go "lock someone up now." Pay Middleton $15M and you need to let Burks go. He's not going to be happy playing 15-20 mins. off the bench. Nor is Hood. Or maybe you lock someone up now so you don't have to pay $20M+ to Hayward in 2 years.

But let's say Utah DOES offer a max contract to Middleton. Who are the Jazz' bigs next season? They have to renounce Booker to even make an offer and he would certainly sign with another team. He's not coming back for $2.5M! Tomic re-sogns with Barcelona because he's not taking that amount of money to come over. Perhaps Pleiss? And a draft pick to back up Favors?

Are you forgetting all our draft picks? The rookie contracts ignore cap situations so that takes care of two rotational players, surely we can draft two worthy players in the next 3-4 years. You are being too cautious.

I don't know if Tomic would be considered a rookie and ignore the cap or not, would have to look that up.

 

[green]

Also, I don't get the Middleton love. I really don't at all.

We currently have one player better than him: Hayward. We have another player who is pretty comparable to him: Burks. We have a third, who is on pace to be better than him: Hood. So, let's pay MAX money for something we have better, equal and will be better than.

No thanks. Not smart basketball.

Middleton this year: 13 pts, 4 rebs, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO, 46% FG, 40% 3pt, 86% FT, 16 PER, 56% TS% vs
Burks this year: 14 pts, 4 rebs, 3 assists, 1 steal, 2 TO's, 40% FG, 38% 3pt, 82% FT, 13 PER, 52% TS%...and Burks had a bum shoulder...

Middleton his rookie year: 17 mins, 6 pts, 2 rebs, 1 assist, 1 TO, 44% FG, 31% 3pt, 48% eFG, 84% FT, 53% TS%, 11 PER vs
Hood his rookie year: 21 mins, opts, 2 rebs, 2 assists, 1 TO, 41% FG, 37% 3pt, 50% eFG, 76% FT, 53% TS%, 12 PER.

We have Burks, a very similar player (and remember Burks was in pain last year with drastically effected his game) that we are paying 10 million per year, and we have Hood, that had a better rookie year than Middleton, who is getting paid 1 million per year, and you guys want to add a similar player for 14 million per year?

No thanks. I'd rather have Hayward, Burks, Hood for 25 million per year than Hayward, Burks, Middleton and Hood for 40 million per year. Especially when I'm not sure Middleton makes us better. Signing Middleton takes away minutes from Hood, who might be a better player than Middleton.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Are you forgetting all our draft picks? The rookie contracts ignore cap situations so that takes care of two rotational players, surely we can draft two worthy players in the next 3-4 years. You are being too cautious.

I don't know if Tomic would be considered a rookie and ignore the cap or not, would have to look that up.

Nope, I'm giving value to team chemistry and saying we already have wings in place who may be almost as good as Middleton and a lot cheaper. I do realize we have a ton of draft picks. We lucked out with Gobert and Hood (who you want to throw away by acquiring Middleton - well him or Burks). Picking in the 20's (as we make the playoffs) usually does NOT result in a decent draft pick. Bigs are VERY hard to acquire and we may have a pretty good one, who LOVES Utah and has represented the heart and soul of the team this year in Booker. I wouldn't rush to throw him away so quickly.

As for Tomic, I'm pretty sure he'd have to be signed just like any other free agent. Only difference is we have his rights. But I've been wrong before. GVC was usually the one with all the right answers on topics like this.

 

[Qman]

Are you forgetting all our draft picks? The rookie contracts ignore cap situations so that takes care of two rotational players, surely we can draft two worthy players in the next 3-4 years. You are being too cautious.

I don't know if Tomic would be considered a rookie and ignore the cap or not, would have to look that up.

The first question in my mind is how good is Middleton in Jazz terms?

Is he better than Hayward? Based on VORP (Value over replacement player) Hayward was 3.6 and Middleton was 2.0. Also note that Hayward has been a 1.7-2.0 for the 3 preceding seasons. Khris was 0.3 for the Buck's last year. Looking a little deeper Khris's biggest improvement was on the defensive end this year- -1.6 DBPM to a 0.5. I wonder how much of that was playing next to and with some very good defensive players.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/middlkh01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/haywago01.html

Now how about Burks-- he was 0.5 last year and 0.1 in limited playing time this year. Alec was -1.1 DBPM this year. If playing with Rudy and Derrick more, would bump him up to a positive number than his net effect would be close to middleton's.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/burksal01.html

Hood was 0.2 in very limited minutes. I see no reason he shouldn't improve to something like 1.0 season.

Note Bryon Russell's best years were 3.7, 2.3, 2.3, 3.9 and 3.0. Wow Stockton and Malone helped everyone out a lot.

Note that Wesley Matthews last 2 years were a 3.1 and 3.0.

Anyway the long and short of it is Middleton is good--- but not that good. He is probably better than Burks and Hood next year but I wonder if the difference is enough to justify pulling resources away from our PG and backup C issues.

If we are interested in taking some risks I might take a chance on Matthews with 2 guaranteed years with team option.

 

[Jazz4ever]

Nope, I'm giving value to team chemistry and saying we already have wings in place who may be almost as good as Middleton and a lot cheaper. I do realize we have a ton of draft picks. We lucked out with Gobert and Hood (who you want to throw away by acquiring Middleton - well him or Burks). Picking in the 20's (as we make the playoffs) usually does NOT result in a decent draft pick. Bigs are VERY hard to acquire and we may have a pretty good one, who LOVES Utah and has represented the heart and soul of the team this year in Booker. I wouldn't rush to throw him away so quickly.

As for Tomic, I'm pretty sure he'd have to be signed just like any other free agent. Only difference is we have his rights. But I've been wrong before. GVC was usually the one with all the right answers on topics like this.

My argument isn't go get Middleton (he was the OPs example will be matched), it's acquire an asset, as they won't impact the ability to retain any of our pieces. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[Sexual Favors]

My argument isn't go get Middleton (he was the OPs example will be matched), it's acquire an asset, as they won't impact the ability to retain any of our pieces. Nothing more, nothing less.

This holds true only if we sign the deals on our terms. Nothing longer than two years, etc. in two years, with the new money CBA, we'll be trying to re-sign Hayward, extend Hood, extend Exum, pay Gobert the new huge max (if no deal is reached the year before), pay Trey if he tuns it around, and put money aside for Favors' third contract. All of those #'s are unknown, and can be HUGE, because that will simply be the going rate.

So while we have money now, and what we spend now will look like pennies in the future, if the contract isn't structure correctly, we could get ourselves in trouble when negotiating contracts with our core and franchise players that will have never-before-seen price tags.

 

[Jazz4ever]

This holds true only if we sign the deals on our terms. Nothing longer than two years, etc. in two years, with the new money CBA, we'll be trying to re-sign Hayward, extend Hood, extend Exum, pay Gobert the new huge max (if no deal is reached the year before), pay Trey if he tuns it around, and put money aside for Favors' third contract. All of those #'s are unknown, and can be HUGE, because that will simply be the going rate.

So while we have money now, and what we spend now will look like pennies in the future, if the contract isn't structure correctly, we could get ourselves in trouble when negotiating contracts with our core and franchise players that will have never-before-seen price tags.

Everything is rosy now, but things change, players can regress rather than improve. Hayward and Favors are *probably* max players in 3 years, but not locks.
If the Jazz truly hand drafts a roster that takes them over 100 million with no outside contaminants, then....wow.
DL has continuously hinted at going after a "big fish" this off season. Whether it be by trade or FA we don't know. Gobert and Hood may have tempered this, we'll see.