One Step Back, Two Steps Forward

[Stifle Tower]

First off, let me state this isn't a Hayward sucks thread.
I hated the pick because I think it means the team takes a step backwards next season. I also think there's a HUGE risk of alienating Deron. But I also want to look at this in terms of 2 years down the road (as Sloan and KOC hinted).

1. We don't know if Boozer will be back or not. I think it's 90% against. But the Jazz didn't permanently shut that door, not yet.

2. Korver may or may not be back. So we went from having too many wings to being too short in the space of a few months. I'm not worried about Matthews. He's restricted. Wesley WILL be back.

3. Jazz have a crisis at the 5. When will Okur return? When/if he does, at what level - 100%, 80%? Is Fes an NBA center or a 15-min backup?


IMO, I think the Jazz HAVE to let Boozer go. Maybe they try to get back a PF backup in the deal, but not for more than $4-$5M. They just can't afford to pay Carlos $15M, not when he gives them no interior defense.

I also think the Jazz need to actively seek a deal for AK's expring at the deadline. You let Boozer and Korver go now, and you have the flexibility of taking back the entire $17M in contracts. Look at what Dallas did at the break (Hayward) or NY giving up a ton of picks for McGrady's expiring.

By contrast, if the Jazz do sign Boozer, then AK has to be dumped. And KOC is then limited to teams that have most of that $17M in available cap space. It will be like trying to dump Harp's contract, but magnified 3x. Utah will likely have to GIVE UP assets.

Can we survive in 2010? Yes. But unless we get a center, it's likely the Jazz MISS the playoffs.

Millsap/AK
(Okur)/Fes/Koufos
Deron/Price
CJ/AK/Hayward
Matthews/CJ


1. In two years, the 2-3 is set: Matthews, CJ and Hayward will be a good rotation: 96 minutes/divided by 3 players. Korver isn't needed.
2. AK's expiring should net a couple of decent players. Or one starter and a mid-round pick. You have to hope one of those guys will be a 4/5.
3. Okur, even IF he doesn't return 100%, will have value as an expiring contract 1 1/2 years from now.

Memphis is good, but not great. If the JAzz MISS the playoffs, we'd have a lottery pick and Memphis could very well be the team that makes it into that 8th spot. That would give us a pick in the 15-18 range.

I'm disappointed looking at might what transpire THIS season. But the future isn't dark.

ONE step back now, but we can take TWO steps forward at the trade deadline and in the next draft.

 

[homeytennis]

Don't forget Gaines and Jeffers.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

What I'm confused about is how this pick supposedly alienates Deron Williams. Hayward was probably the second best player ready to contribute, only behind Aldrich, and the board would be up in arms at that pick and saying the same thing about alienating Williams. Hayward is certainly ready to play over players like Ed Davis.

 

[GoBolts]

ONE step back now, but we can take TWO steps forward at the trade deadline and in the next draft.

Are you a season ticket holder? If you are you have more money/patience than I do. I get sick of writing huge checks to an organization that gives me "hope" for a good team 2-3 years from now.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Are you a season ticket holder? If you are you have more money/patience than I do. I get sick of writing huge checks to an organization that gives me "hope" for a good team 2-3 years from now.

No, I'm not.
I'm just saying the Jazz are rebuilding. Certainly with AK in place, then signing Okur and Boozer, and finally drafting Deron, there was a real hope the Jazz had a contender. Unfortunately we've found that's not the case. AK's game and health have declined. Okur has been Charmin-soft and Boozer, WHEN he plays, only does so on the offensive side of the court.

Jazz may turn over half their team in the next 3 years, including some key starters. Normally, you'd expect to immediately drop into the lottery. But I think there's a real chance to rebuild with perhaps just a small drop in team performance this year. In fact - and I know no one wants to hear this - it would be to Utah's benefit to miss the playoffs this year, especially if that opened the door for Memphis to get in as the 7th/8th seed in the WC.


As for alienating Deron, well, he's been one of those screaming about needing a shot-blocker and some help inside. Instead, Utah drafts a SF/SG who won't play much this season (refer to KOC's comments re: his hope the fans won't be booing TWO years from now). Some decent inside players WERE available at #9. AS much as I hate Aldrich, he would have been better IMMEDIATELY for the Jazz. Davis too.

You're probably losing your starting PF, you have a center with a potential career-ending (or altering) injury. And you don't draft a big. Nor do you buy an additonal pick to draft a big that could have at least given 10-15 minutes in a backup role (like Brackins, Orton, etc.). Sure, center by committee. But right now, Jazz are facing center by NO ONE. Unless, of course, you think Fes can give 35 quality minutes every night. I'm guessing 20, at most, before he falls down from exhaustion or fouls out. Hello Jarron? Mikki? Hey Mr. Nelson, can you teach us about Nellie Ball. You know, how do we compete when the biggest guy on the court will be our undersized PF?

 

[The Ghost of Blue Edwards]

The Jazz aren't taking any steps forward as long as Kevin O'Connor is running the show.

 

[AlaskanAssassin]

Are you a season ticket holder? If you are you have more money/patience than I do. I get sick of writing huge checks to an organization that gives me "hope" for a good team 2-3 years from now.

Are we not currently a "good" team? I thought we just made the 2nd round of the playoffs. We might not be a great team, we might not be the Lakers, but we are a good team and a very well run franchise.

I agree with GlassEater. We might take a step back next year, but that was going to happen regardless. Now, with two potential mid-first round picks next year (in what is supposed to be a deep draft), a big expring contract in AK47 (turned into a defensive minded center), and hopefully some development from our very young roster, we could be competing for West supremacy with the Thunder in 2 years (right when the Lakers are beginning to show their age).

 

[Bodhi]

I agree with some of the stuff you're saying. That said, I'd be shocked if we do much or anything with AK's expiring so that doesn't bode well for your argument of using Memo's expiring (1 1/2 years away is expiring?). Then the idea that we would use a 15-18 range pick in next years draft to help us or use as an asset when we just took a career 12-6-2 guy with the 9 pick? If 9 and the assets we have now (AK) didn't net us much 15-18 even with our own pick minus other assets wont get us more than a rotation guy.

Our front office is what it will always be, the Glen Beck of franchises, conservative.

 

[GoBolts]

Are we not currently a "good" team? I thought we just made the 2nd round of the playoffs. We might not be a great team, we might not be the Lakers, but we are a good team and a very well run franchise.

I agree with GlassEater. We might take a step back next year, but that was going to happen regardless. Now, with two potential mid-first round picks next year (in what is supposed to be a deep draft), a big expring contract in AK47 (turned into a defensive minded center), and hopefully some development from our very young roster, we could be competing for West supremacy with the Thunder in 2 years (right when the Lakers are beginning to show their age).

Two potential mid-first round picks gets me all excited!! Let's see, Maynor (20), Koufous (23), Almond (25), Brewer (14), Humphries (14), Snyder (16), Pavlovic (19), Borchardt (18) via trade of our 19, Lopez (24), Stevenson (23), and I can go on and on. KOC is amazing at mid-first rounders. The only guys on this list that are any good AREN'T EVEN ON OUR TEAM ANYMORE!!!!!

KOC = FAIL.

 

[cowhide]

Sorry, Glass I was becoming a big fan and now you have calmed down and started talking like a myopic Jazz fan. 2-3 Years OKC could be NBA champions while Jazz fans are told to be patient while we rebuild. When did we start rebuilding? Last thing I remember the Jazz were telling its fans was to give this team time to mesh and now we are rebuilding. I would have rather had 3 or 4 year of top 5 picks (like OKC) and be a up and coming team. Just making the playoffs is not enough for me anymore.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Sorry, Glass I was becoming a big fan and now you have calmed down and started talking like a myopic Jazz fan. 2-3 Years OKC could be NBA champions while Jazz fans are told to be patient while rebuild. When did we start rebuilding. Last thing I remember the Jazz were telling its fans was to give this team time to mesh and now we are rebuilding. I would have rather had 3 or 4 year of top 5 picks (like OKC) and be a up and coming team. Just making the playoffs is not enough for me anymore.

I'm still the same miserable SOB that I've always been. NEVER, EVER call me a myopic Jazz fan. I'm also tired of just making the playoffs. Happiest day for me would be the Millers deciding to sell the Jazz to Checketts or some other group in Utah.

But we are rebuilding. The Boozer/AK/Okur experiment has come to a dismal end. And what is done, is done. Sloan decided Hayward was "his guy" and KOC made the pick. I'm just trying to shine a candle in the darkness. The team CAN be rebuilt.

I will be livid, though, if the Jazz don't get any assets in return for Boozer AND AK. That tells me Greg and his mom are just flipping the bird at Jazz fans and don't give a **** about trying to build a contender.

 

[AlaskanAssassin]

I would have rather had 3 or 4 year of top 5 picks (like OKC) and be a up and coming team. Just making the playoffs is not enough for me anymore.

What exactly are you suggesting? Should we trade Deron and look forward to 3-4 years of missing the playoffs, hoping we get lucky come lotto time? Most teams that employ that "strategy" end up staying in the lottery. Think of Minnesota, Indiana, Memphis, New Jersey, etc. It takes both time and luck to make huge improvements in the NBA. Where would OKC be if Portland had taken Durnat? Where would Cleveland be if they didn't win Lebron in the lotto? People have been applauding Memphis' draft strategy for a few years now, how are they doing? Any playoff appearances?

I'm starting to think Jazz fans are moronic. Abosolutely no one that was available to us at #9 would have helped us top the Lakers in the West for the next couple years. Does anyone really think Davis, Aldrich, or Patterson would have controlled Pau in the paint? ABSOLUTELY NOT! So the Jazz went with BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE! That player, in the minds of KOC and his staff, was Hayward. It's certainly debateable, but it wasn't a reach.

For those of you who thought we should have traded up....HOW EXACTLY? We don't have any assets except for Deron to trade up with. Trading Boozer wasn't an option, at least not until July 1st. Do you think Millsap could have moved us up to the top 5? No way!!

It's time for everyone to cool your jets and realized that your upset because we have been dreaming about the NY pick for a few years, and it didn't land us a superstar.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Oklahoma City still has no low post scorer, until they get rid of Jeff Green and put in a legit 4, they wont win a championship.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

First of all, mental toughness is highly underrated in the NBA. Players who have the tools, the mental make-up, and the work ethic become successful players in the league. There are many examples of players who seemed physically limited, but had mental toughness and a "knack" for being in the right place and making the right play. Manu Ginobli is one of those players. Jeff Hornacek is one of those players. There are also examples of physically gifted players who don't have the vision and the IQ to play in a team concept. Ideally, you want a player who has both the physical game and the mental game, but I definitely think the Jazz fell in love with Gordon Hayward the competitor, as much as anything else.

Looking at the tapes and doing our own backseat drafting, I think a lot of people would have taken Henry, Babbit, George, Davis, and maybe Aldrich or Patterson over Hayward. If the Jazz wanted Monroe, they might have been able to make a deal with Golden State. All the other players were on the board when the Jazz drafted. Given this, I think the Jazz do know what they're trying to do.

I think the Jazz want to have someone in the back court along with D. Will who can initiate plays--someone who can handle, pass and shoot--someone who has some point guard skills. They've tried the combo-guard route in the past, but always give up too much size defensively and ability offensively. They've never had a starter-caliber player in that all-round guard position since Jeff Hornacek was here. I think that's why the Jazz went with Hayward. They could have taken Henry, but Henry is a bit one-dimensional. They could have taken George, but maybe they think that's risky and they think they get the same impact more or less with CJ Miles who improved at the end of last year. Babbit is a competent offensive player, but he can't really swing to the guard spot, which is a more rare skill...just rationalizing here.

So all in all, if it were me, I would have taken Babbit or George, but I see what the Jazz are trying to do.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Another thing, I think the Jazz made a good pick a couple of years ago with Ante Tomic. He could be a real factor in a year or two, if the Jazz ever get him over here.

 

[TheMulletMutilator]

Another thing, I think the Jazz made a good pick a couple of years ago with Ante Tomic. He could be a real factor in a year or two, if the Jazz ever get him over here.

Tomic appears to be a valuable piece down the road, but the draft last night was a laugher. Stereotypical pick that will end up hurting us for years to come.

 

[Wolverine Newby]

What exactly are you suggesting? Should we trade Deron and look forward to 3-4 years of missing the playoffs, hoping we get lucky come lotto time? Most teams that employ that "strategy" end up staying in the lottery. Think of Minnesota, Indiana, Memphis, New Jersey, etc. It takes both time and luck to make huge improvements in the NBA. Where would OKC be if Portland had taken Durnat? Where would Cleveland be if they didn't win Lebron in the lotto? People have been applauding Memphis' draft strategy for a few years now, how are they doing? Any playoff appearances?

I'm starting to think Jazz fans are moronic. Abosolutely no one that was available to us at #9 would have helped us top the Lakers in the West for the next couple years. Does anyone really think Davis, Aldrich, or Patterson would have controlled Pau in the paint? ABSOLUTELY NOT! So the Jazz went with BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE! That player, in the minds of KOC and his staff, was Hayward. It's certainly debateable, but it wasn't a reach.

For those of you who thought we should have traded up....HOW EXACTLY? We don't have any assets except for Deron to trade up with. Trading Boozer wasn't an option, at least not until July 1st. Do you think Millsap could have moved us up to the top 5? No way!!

It's time for everyone to cool your jets and realized that your upset because we have been dreaming about the NY pick for a few years, and it didn't land us a superstar.

I agree with you exept for the point that we didn't land us a superstar. If he continues to follow his trend in HS and Butler we just did draft a superstar. It could happen!

 

[Mambo]

Oh so in 2 years we will be the same as last year?

God do i love this organization.

 

[slc]

It won't take 2 years to find out how good Hayward is. He'll get enough quality PT this year to show what he's got. I was surprised Jazz took him, but I think he will surprise everyone much sooner than we think.

 

[Med_Phys]

I think the Jazz have two options with this upcoming off-season/season:
1) Stay right around the tax threshold by not making any major moves. To me, this means letting Boozer walk, maybe re-signing Korver and bringing back Matthews and Fes. A couple more roster spots need to be added and hopefully one would be a veteran 4 or 5. In this scenario AK plays more 4 and the Jazz should be better than the '03-'04 season and may make the playoffs.
2) Make some serious moves with Boozer and AK, but only for short contracts, preferably young guys, and draft picks. I think this would result in a definitely lottery pick (top 10). Not sure fans would like to see this happen, but you have to have lottery picks if you want to seriously challenge for a title.