The Pacers are much better than they record indicates: even with the players they have healthy right now they are clearly better than all tanking and struggling teams. Indiana went 5-5 in the last 10 games because they easily defeated each bad team they faced (Charlotte, Chicago twice, Sacramento and Washington). And they will be getting two more good players back in the coming weeks.
If the Pacers trade us their pick and have no reason to tank (and, by the way, Indiana has a well-established no-tanking culture in the first place) then they will finish above at least 5 teams in the East and, most likely, 5 teams in the West. The best scenario is that the Jazz will get the 11th pick. But wait, there is more: the Pacers will finish as a play-in team, above Chicago and Milwaukee. And Indiana is a well-coached and experienced team, so they have a good chance of sneaking in the playoffs. So, the worst case scenario for the Jazz would be 15th/16th pick.
Now, do we think that the 11th or 15th pick will get us a better player than Kessler? And yes, the 11th pick will also give the Jazz the 7% chance of jumping into the top-4. I think it is a bad gamble for the Jazz even without any protection put on the 2026 pick.
If the Pacers trade us their pick and have no reason to tank (and, by the way, Indiana has a well-established no-tanking culture in the first place) then they will finish above at least 5 teams in the East and, most likely, 5 teams in the West. The best scenario is that the Jazz will get the 11th pick. But wait, there is more: the Pacers will finish as a play-in team, above Chicago and Milwaukee. And Indiana is a well-coached and experienced team, so they have a good chance of sneaking in the playoffs. So, the worst case scenario for the Jazz would be 15th/16th pick.
Now, do we think that the 11th or 15th pick will get us a better player than Kessler? And yes, the 11th pick will also give the Jazz the 7% chance of jumping into the top-4. I think it is a bad gamble for the Jazz even without any protection put on the 2026 pick.