The Jazz aren't planning to do either, but that puts them right on schedule to keep that pick. Don will be with us next year, but likely demand out soon. We will likely be in full rebuild at that point and in the bottom 10. If the Jazz tank now, chances are they will lose that pick and it will me mid first round. You would hope that they would be out of the top 10 by then, but being one of the better teams in the league seems unrealistic. This came up in the tank now vs tank later discussion, it doesn't benefit us to tank now.
Predict the Rudy Gobert trade
- Thread starter Elizah Huge
- Start date
The Jazz aren't planning to do either, but that puts them right on schedule to keep that pick. Don will be with us next year, but likely demand out soon. We will likely be in full rebuild at that point and in the bottom 10. If the Jazz tank now, chances are they will lose that pick and it will me mid first round. You would hope that they would be out of the top 10 by then, but being one of the better teams in the league seems unrealistic. This came up in the tank now vs tank later discussion, it doesn't benefit us to tank now.
Handlogten's Heros
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I disagree here. The tank would take a couple years... the pick is top 10 protected in 24 and 25. Top 8 in 2026. Whether we start the tank this year or next it will likely be hard to keep the pick in 2026 with the new lotto odds... it is easier to slide back a spot or two. I see a scenario where we wait 6 months too long to rebuild (trade deadline 2023-24 season is the somewhat hard deadline to move Don) and potentially lose a late lotto mid first in 2024... losing that opportunity at the beginning of a rebuild would be fairly disheartening vs. having the talent you selected in 2023-2025 pull you out of the mud and sending a late lotto pick.
95% of us know where this is headed. A lot of value in recognizing that and leaning in imo.
YoungJefe
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Yup. You either way to be a contender or tank to rebuild your core. The Rockets were quick to blow it up and now they'll have Jalen Green/Paolo Banchero to build around just two years after moving Harden. The Grizzles traded away Gasol/Conley, tanked for a year, and ended up with Morant.
I don't know how you can reasonably think the pick is more likely to be conveyed (OKC receives the pick) if we tanked right now versus next offseason. I see the concern about not trading him in the offseason....but at the deadline instead. Very strange scenario, but I'd be pretty confident that you could get into the bottom 10 if it falls out at that point time. If you tank now, you're losing that pick unless you're bad for 4 consecutive years. You're almost guaranteed to lose that pick unless things go horribly wrong. If you waited a year, your chances of keeping that pick are much greater.
I'm not really letting this protected pick dictate my thinking, but if you are, you should not be proponent of tanking now.
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I'm not going to let it dictate my thinking either... but its easy to see the scenario where we don't trade Donovan until the trade deadline of the 23-24 season. Say we don't move Rudy this offseason. You move Don to PG and maybe it all works okay... but you then say "what if we do trade Rudy... we could be more modern and convince Don to stay". Then you retool... midseason it isn't working and you realize the trade needs to happen. Trading him with 1.5 season left or 2 playoff runs will net more than trading him with only 1 year left so you move him. Maybe you can still find the bottom 10 by then... mathematically I think you are right you are more likely to send that pick if you start tanking now... I'd just rather not give away a pick as you are headed into a rebuild. If you lost one on the backend I think its less devastating. You could also be right in the middle of the rebuild then and still get leapfrogged and it becomes somewhat devastating.
The biggest value in tanking now is all your trades face the same direction and you also have more opportunity to find an actual deal. Trading vets for other win now vets that are younger... are trades that don't happen all that much.
Let's look at those scenario's where Don is traded at the 23/24 deadline as it relates to the protected pick. Either 1) Don has demanded a trade in the offseason and we're dragging out the trade negotiation AD style or 2) the trade demand came mid season. In the first scenario, I think it's pretty safe that we find the bottom 10 because you just sit Don. In the second, you're talking about Don demanding out of a Jazz team that is too good that we can't find a way to miss the play in. Seems unlikely, but however likely you find these scenarios, it's not as if the alternative increases your chances of keeping the pick. The only way to keep the pick if you start tanking now is if we are in the bottom 8/10 for four years in a row. There is a 100% overlap with the alternative of waiting to tank. If the tank takes four years, you get the pick whether you tank now or later. You only get added probability by waiting. You may think that the pick is a lost cause so you might as well tank now, but I can't conjure up a scenario where tanking now creates more probability of keeping the pick.
But like I said, this isn't what drives my thinking. I don't see how tanking now increases the opportunity to find a deal. One of the reasons why I'm in favor of waiting is because tanking now by definition limits time the window in which you make trades, and that limits the negotiation....but I'm not going to reignite that discussion. When it comes to the implications of the protected pick, there's no question that it is more favorable to wait.
I guess we have several questions to answer here in order to determine if we want to tank now or later:
1. Are we good with wasting one more year in limbo than we need to? What's the value of that one year?
2. Does the higher likelyhood we lose one of the picks to OKC if we tank now cover for the potential loss of value by letting one more year pass - for example - do we get better value for Mitchell this year or next when he will be able to much more reliably threaten teams away from bidding for him? Do we get better value if we trade Gobert now for future value than win now pieces? And if we are keeping Gobert to try to contend again - are we getting better value for him now, or next year?
3. What if we convince ourselves that we can keep being competitive and actually keep Mitchell past next year? Then you almost certainly lose the pick in 2024.
LoPo
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Wow. Must be happening soon. He must have asked the FO if the rumors were true and they must have confirmed them.
I wish him the best. We really did him and Don wrong by not building better around them. It will always be one of those "what if" situations. I 100% blame the Conley trade and always will.
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LogGrad98
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The Conley trade was the biggest whiff in recent memory. So many better options. So much spent on a guy that was never what he was billed as in the first place. So many games and playoff series lost to injuries. So much wasted potential in those assets. Really a travesty for the team. Good that we dropped the folks that set that **** up, but it is now too little too late. We are going into a tailspin and then rebuild. And we keep loping along on the treadmill of mediocrity.
His banner is him in a jazz jersey...
LoPo
Well-Known Member
It is truly unfortunate how the Conley trade played out. He's such a good dude. The trade just looks that much worse since we also whiffed on the Favors deal, the Gay deal and pretty much both drafts since we added Mike.
As for Rudy, I hope he gets to play with a true facilitating PG. I'm not a Trae fan, but they could be great together. A healthy Lonzo would look good with Rudy too.
I have a lot of faith in Donovan. I think he is a budding superstar. Sometimes, styles just don't mesh well and I think that was the case with Rudy. Nothing against either of them. I hope we build a fun project that new young guys will buy into. A complete teardown could hurt us for many years.
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My fault. I was trusting a talk show...geez.
The Fresh Prince
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Monty Show is saying a deal is close to being done with Chicago. Question is who are we getting outside of Vuc?
Hopefully we are getting Patrick Williams.
If we get Vuc we need to bring Whiteside back for rim protection.
Hopefully we are getting Patrick Williams.
If we get Vuc we need to bring Whiteside back for rim protection.
Ineptimusprime
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From a roster drama perspective, how can the Jazz keep Rudy rolling into next season and not have it be the biggest cluster of a roster dynamic ever?
The Jazz have very publicly chosen Don over Rudy and have spent the last two months discussing Rudy trades. By contrast, Rudy has done nothing over the course of his career but express loyalty to Utah, anchor a defense, and be 3x DPOY and All-Star. If I’m Rudy, the Jazz have very publicly spit in my face this offseason, and I’m just supposed to come back to the same already-dysfunctional locker room and play nice with everyone? No ****ing way, right? Totally untenable, right?
I would have probably traded both Don and Rudy after this season for the biggest haul of young players and picks I could. Here would have been my order of preference:
1. Acknowledge reality and press reset with trades of basically all the vets on the roster.
2. publicly announce you are keeping Don and Rudy but try to trade literally everyone else around them. Give it one more year of the ‘OL college try around Don and Rudy and blow it up next year if it doesn’t work.
3. Trade Don since he isn’t long for SLC anyway for a huge haul of picks and pieces to build around Gobert.
4. Trade Rudy and keep Don and explore the Donny and friends roster.
5. Publicly choose Don over Rudy but then somehow bring Rudy back when we couldn’t get 4 FRPs and a “star” in the deal.
I have no faith in management right now after whiffing the rebrand and because their instincts seem to be the exact opposite of mine. It seems like their objective is more to try to make the Jazz and Utah “cool” than it is to make them a title contender. But the “Provo All-Star” definition of “cool” is highlighter yellow jerseys and worrying about Don being “mayor of SLC” during All-Star weekend. That **** ain’t cool.
The Jazz have very publicly chosen Don over Rudy and have spent the last two months discussing Rudy trades. By contrast, Rudy has done nothing over the course of his career but express loyalty to Utah, anchor a defense, and be 3x DPOY and All-Star. If I’m Rudy, the Jazz have very publicly spit in my face this offseason, and I’m just supposed to come back to the same already-dysfunctional locker room and play nice with everyone? No ****ing way, right? Totally untenable, right?
I would have probably traded both Don and Rudy after this season for the biggest haul of young players and picks I could. Here would have been my order of preference:
1. Acknowledge reality and press reset with trades of basically all the vets on the roster.
2. publicly announce you are keeping Don and Rudy but try to trade literally everyone else around them. Give it one more year of the ‘OL college try around Don and Rudy and blow it up next year if it doesn’t work.
3. Trade Don since he isn’t long for SLC anyway for a huge haul of picks and pieces to build around Gobert.
4. Trade Rudy and keep Don and explore the Donny and friends roster.
5. Publicly choose Don over Rudy but then somehow bring Rudy back when we couldn’t get 4 FRPs and a “star” in the deal.
I have no faith in management right now after whiffing the rebrand and because their instincts seem to be the exact opposite of mine. It seems like their objective is more to try to make the Jazz and Utah “cool” than it is to make them a title contender. But the “Provo All-Star” definition of “cool” is highlighter yellow jerseys and worrying about Don being “mayor of SLC” during All-Star weekend. That **** ain’t cool.
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I’m fairly certain Rudy is getting moved before the draft. I wonder if someone comes out of the woodwork with a better offer than the current ones on the table and shock everyone. Doubtful but you never know. There are some teams that should absolutely be at least inquiring about Rudy that aren’t or at least we haven’t heard about yet.
Feels like he gets moved to Chicago but maybe Atlanta includes Hunter at the final hour to put their offer over the top.
Feels like he gets moved to Chicago but maybe Atlanta includes Hunter at the final hour to put their offer over the top.
Ineptimusprime
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What I’m not understanding is why a team like the Kings that is desperate to make the Playoffs isn’t falling over themselves to throw everything they have to get Rudy. Rudy is a guy that will alone elevate even Sac to playoff contention.
They very stupidly mortgaged their future for Sabonis.
LoPo
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I don't trust the talking heads. Just because reports say we are building around Don, we haven't seen anything that's tangible to prove that yet. There are rumors out there even including Don being traded or wanting out or we are moving on.
The only player we have shown any loyalty to this summer is Jordan Clarkson with the whole jersey debacle.
Rudy shouldn't be upset until we actually do something or trade him.
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The only player we have shown any loyalty to this summer is Jordan Clarkson with the whole jersey debacle.
Rudy shouldn't be upset until we actually do something or trade him.
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