Putin has pwned Obama

[♪alt13]

Well not violating Turkey's airspace should be easy as well and we see how well that is happening...

But I think that Turkey would go for that. Trick is getting enough NATO members to sign on to be effective. America needs to force other NATO members hands on funding. Canada can't even field a marginally effective navy. Germany needed help with aerial transportation...

Agreed.

I think the establishment of UN refugee camps within the no fly zone would sell most of Europe. European politicians must do something about Syrian refugees if they want to keep their seats. If that's not enough we have other carrots to get western European countries moving. I think eastern Europeans are already eager for a Nato response and would do their best to show solidarity.

 

[Stoked]

Agreed.

I think the establishment of UN refugee camps within the no fly zone would sell most of Europe. European politicians must do something about Syrian refugees if they want to keep their seats. If that's not enough we have other carrots to get western European countries moving. I think eastern Europeans are already eager for a Nato response and would do their best to show solidarity.

Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria are begging for it. Especially Poland and Estonia. Poland has asked 2-3 times for a 10,000 strong permanent NATO base on its soil. The main opponents to this from what I have read are Germany, Spain and Portugal (not sure about this one) as they feel it antagonizes Russia based on accords that NATO would not proceed to move further east.

But I feel that NATO has pretty much made such agreements useless. They are buzzing almost a dozen NATO members with warplanes and ships (England, Canada, America, Baltics, Turkey...) and have had fights in Ukraine and Georgia to torpedo those nations NATO aspirations.

On a silver lining Sweden and Finland are seeing a surge in public opinion for joining NATO. Sweden is pushing 50% pro nato and 39% anti NATO. That shores up gaps in Europe.

I am starting to believe that this is going to come down to three armed camps in a cold war:

NATO and allies (S. Korea, Israel, Japan, Australia, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Honduras...)

Russian Federation, China, Iran and allies (Cambodia, Mongolia, the "stans", Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela, Iraq, Syria...)

And fence sitters like Brazil, India and S. Africa who will try and sit it out or get pushed into one camp or another by force (like China forcing India into the NATO camp)

 

[♪alt13]

Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria are begging for it. Especially Poland and Estonia. Poland has asked 2-3 times for a 10,000 strong permanent NATO base on its soil. The main opponents to this from what I have read are Germany, Spain and Portugal (not sure about this one) as they feel it antagonizes Russia based on accords that NATO would not proceed to move further east.

But I feel that NATO has pretty much made such agreements useless. They are buzzing almost a dozen NATO members with warplanes and ships (England, Canada, America, Baltics, Turkey...) and have had fights in Ukraine and Georgia to torpedo those nations NATO aspirations.

On a silver lining Sweden and Finland are seeing a surge in public opinion for joining NATO. Sweden is pushing 50% pro nato and 39% anti NATO. That shores up gaps in Europe.

I am starting to believe that this is going to come down to three armed camps in a cold war:

NATO and allies (S. Korea, Israel, Japan, Australia, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Honduras...)

Russian Federation, China, Iran and allies (Cambodia, Mongolia, the "stans", Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela, Iraq, Syria...)

And fence sitters like Brazil, India and S. Africa who will try and sit it out or get pushed into one camp or another by force (like China forcing India into the NATO camp)

I really don't think that China and Russia are that close. Financially/business speaking they are much closer to the US. I don't think China would be happy being Russia's little bitch or vice versa. I can't see China risking her finances on Russia's behalf. I expect China to move closer to the US/Europe and further from Russia overtime.

 

[Stoked]

I really don't think that China and Russia are that close. Financially/business speaking they are much closer to the US. I don't think China would be happy being Russia's little bitch or vice versa. I can't see China risking her finances on Russia's behalf. I expect China to move closer to the US/Europe and further from Russia overtime.

Not yet, but they are headed that way. Brick laying. They just signed a huge energy bill a couple months ago and have been signing things left and right.
Russia sent navy ships to support China in the South China Sea. And China is sending military advisors to Syria to support Russia.

It's not on each other's behalf. It's to dethrone America and for them to be the top dog.

 

[Stoked]

Hey Alt,

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a529a4-6d34-11e5-91eb-27ad15c2b723_story.html

In that article it says that NATO is reconsidering the withdrawal of the patriot missile batteries scheduled this fall by Germany and America. There is a third battery operated by Spain that is not scheduled to be removed. I hope they keep all 3 in Turkey.

 

[♪alt13]

^must spread rep before giving to stoked again


Putin's decision to launch missiles from the Caspian instead of from the Mediterranean is a clear message. Obama must act decisively and boldly. No half measures.

Putin's next move is going to be to support an independent autonomous region for the Kurds in Syria. He will use it to try to destabilize Turkey. Turkey and the US must get ahead of him on this. Turkey can either have a Kurdistan aligned with Syria, Iran, and Russia on it's border or one that is aligned with Turkey, the US, and Nato. It's time for Obama and Erdogan to lead instead of react.

 

[Stoked]

Also one of his next moves will be to further bring Iraq into his growing alliance. Something Iraq is receptive to.

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/i...sian-airstrikes-against-isis-official-n439941

Iraq may request that Russia start a bombing campaign in its country as well. This is something Russia said it will consider if Iraq requests it.

Lebanon is mostly in this group as well. This provides Russia will a directly land bridge of allies from their territory to the Mediterranean Sea.

 

[♪alt13]

Also one of his next moves will be to further bring Iraq into his growing alliance. Something Iraq is receptive to.

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/i...sian-airstrikes-against-isis-official-n439941

Iraq may request that Russia start a bombing campaign in its country as well. This is something Russia said it will consider if Iraq requests it.

Lebanon is mostly in this group as well. This provides Russia will a directly land bridge of allies from their territory to the Mediterranean Sea.

I think Baghdad was always going to move toward Iran, Assad, and Russia. It's Shiite majority the shiite are in power. For us to think otherwise was foolish.

 

[Stoked]

The biggest piece of all this is Russia and China.

China is tying countries like Mongolia, Pakistan and Cambodia to it. Pakistan leads to Afghanistan once NATO winds down.

That is a geographically huge directly connected alliance. With huge populations, resources and economies.

The "stans" and Belarus (already has) would join this as well.

Russia, China, Mongolia, Cambodia, N. Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

It draws hard lines on all sides. Right up against NATO, Asian nations allied with America (Japan, Philippines, S. Korea...) and M.E. nations allied with America (Israel, S. Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan...).

Russia and China are doing masterful work reshaping alliances into a scenario much more favorable to them.

 

[Stoked]

I think Baghdad was always going to move toward Iran, Assad, and Russia. It's Shiite majority the shiite are in power. For us to think otherwise was foolish.

I agree but our politicians clearly thought so. They are making the same mistake in Afghanistan (not Russia but towards Pakistan and by extension China). One of the reasons China will do this, imo, is to counter India which is drifting towards America and allies over the S. China Sea. There are several articles detailing this drift on India's part.

 

[Stoked]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-quds-force-commander-hussein-hamedani-syria-france-russia-isis/

Iran's top general and leader of the Revolutionary Guard was just killed in Syria by terrorists. Wonder what Iran's response will be.

Edit: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a2553c-6e80-11e5-9bfe-e59f5e244f92_story.html

The Pentagon is scaling back/stopping its failed program of training rebel units.

They instead are looking at arming vetted units already in the field. They are also considering providing them air cover against terrorist groups.

Basically what Russia is doing with the Assad gov. What is not clear is if this means armor, troops on the ground or just bombing runs in support of their forces instead of at random.

Will this lead to direct conflict with Russian forces? I doubt it as the US currently has their pilots divert their flight paths if they come within 20 miles of a Russian plane.

 

[Stoked]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...t-Turkish-forces-flew-country-s-airspace.html

UNCONFIRMED

Turkish forces just shot down a Russian fighter jet for violating their airspace. Turkey is NATO...


Edit: Was not aware that the Daily Mail was basically a gosspi mag and not real news. I doubt even more that this happened.