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Putin has pwned Obama

♪alt13 said:
Agreed.

I'm aware that there is Nato air presence there but Turkey just a year ago complained that it was not sufficient(they may have also said so more recently but I haven't read that). Putin knows Turkey is basically the ugly duckling. He suspects that Nato powers(especially European ones) will get nervous likely tighten up rules of engagement and may even recall some forces for "maintenance". The Dutch recalled mobile surface to air missile defense systems last year from Turkey when ISIS was approaching the Turkish border. Obama needs to lead on this. I think we need to do something like the Berlin Air drops. Show that we are srs and will not be bullied or deterred. Putin will back down if he sees that Nato is ready to commit real resources to defend Turkish sovereignty.
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Interesting point on Turkey being the Ugly Duckling. They certainly are the most unique and outside the mold nation in NATO. A strong show of unquestionable support for them would send a strong message that Turkey is NATO and that isn't changing.

Question is what is Turkey willing to have in it's territory? Would Turkey want say 27 (one for every foreign NATO nation) foreign warplanes from 27 countries on their territory?

War games (such as a simulated dog fight) with a plane from every NATO nation on the Turkey/Syrian border would send a strong message if it was played right in the media as a message to not interfere with NATO countries.
 
Stoked said:
Interesting point on Turkey being the Ugly Duckling. They certainly are the most unique and outside the mold nation in NATO. A strong show of unquestionable support for them would send a strong message that Turkey is NATO and that isn't changing.

Question is what is Turkey willing to have in it's territory? Would Turkey want say 27 (one for every foreign NATO nation) foreign warplanes from 27 countries on their territory?

War games (such as a simulated dog fight) with a plane from every NATO nation on the Turkey/Syrian border would send a strong message if it was played right in the media as a message to not interfere with NATO countries.
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Gotta read Turkish, Iranian, Kurdish, etc. news to know what they want. I just went to Hurriyet Daily news(Turkish paper) to search for the story I was referring to. I found an update. Apparently we just removed our patriot missiles from Turkey and so did Germany in August. Is it a coincidence that Putin is playing with Turkey's border almost immediately? I think we both would agree that it's not.

The United States announced on Aug. 16 that it had informed the Turkish government that the U.S. deployment of Patriot air and missile defense units in Turkey, which expires in October, will not be renewed. The announcement came one day after Germany also said it would pull its Patriot missile batteries from southern Turkey.
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https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-germany-to-pull-patriot-missiles-from-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nID=87039&NewsCatID=510

Turkish officials were livid when told two weeks ago that the U.S. was withdrawing the Patriots, the daily reported, quoting American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Netherlands, one of the three countries that deployed Patriot missiles in southern Turkish provinces in 2013 as part of a NATO decision to boost Turkey’s air defenses against a potential Syrian missile attack, withdrew its Patriot missile batteries and the Dutch soldiers operating them in Adana province in 2014, saying it could no longer maintain them.
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https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/nato-in-consultation-no-replacement-of-german-patriots-in-turkey-yet.aspx?pageID=238&nID=87056&NewsCatID=510
 
♪alt13 said:
Gotta read Turkish, Iranian, Kurdish, etc. news to know what they want. I just went to Hurriyet Daily news(Turkish paper) to search for the story I was referring to. I found an update. Apparently we just removed our patriot missiles from Turkey and so did Germany in August. Is it a coincidence that Putin is playing with Turkey's border almost immediately? I think we both would agree that it's not.



https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-germany-to-pull-patriot-missiles-from-turkey.aspx?pageID=238&nID=87039&NewsCatID=510



https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/nato-in-consultation-no-replacement-of-german-patriots-in-turkey-yet.aspx?pageID=238&nID=87056&NewsCatID=510
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Ugh, no it is not a coincidence. Romney looks like a genius now. In regards to Russia at least.
 
Stoked said:
Ugh, no it is not a coincidence. Romney looks like a genius now. In regards to Russia at least.
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I understand why we took them out. Turkey needed to get with the program but we must renew them now. I think this situation can be salvaged and turned into a positive.

We should bolster Turkish defenses, support their proposed no fly zone in Syria, and in return get Turkey to support bolstering the Peshmerga and a path to statehood for kurds led by the KRG. Then we can let Russia deal with the quagmire that is the rest of Iraq and Syria.
 
♪alt13 said:
I understand why we took them out. Turkey needed to get with the program but we must renew them now. I think this situation can be salvaged and turned into a positive.

We should bolster Turkish defenses, support their proposed no fly zone in Syria, and in return get Turkey to support bolstering the Peshmerga and a path to statehood for kurds led by the KRG. Then we can let Russia deal with the quagmire that is the rest of Iraq and Syria.
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I am all for soring up our current allies like Turkey. Part of doing this is making these nations pay more for their own defense. Part of it is supplying some American muscle in areas these countries are weak. Such as patriot missiles and advanced communications gear.

Having Israel, Turkey and a Kurdistan with very strong US ties is a good place to start. Let Russia have Iraq and Syria.

I'd re-evaluate all other middle east "allies" such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan (most likely alliance I'd keep).

A no-fly zone gets very tricky as this is not against a tin pot regime. Russian pilots patrol those skies and that could make a no-fly zone extremely risky. If we take that stance we have to be prepared to enforce it.
 
Stoked said:
I am all for soring up our current allies like Turkey. Part of doing this is making these nations pay more for their own defense. Part of it is supplying some American muscle in areas these countries are weak. Such as patriot missiles and advanced communications gear.

Having Israel, Turkey and a Kurdistan with very strong US ties is a good place to start. Let Russia have Iraq and Syria.

I'd re-evaluate all other middle east "allies" such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan (most likely alliance I'd keep).

A no-fly zone gets very tricky as this is not against a tin pot regime. Russian pilots patrol those skies and that could make a no-fly zone extremely risky. If we take that stance we have to be prepared to enforce it.
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Turkey's proposed No fly zone would only cover the extreme north of Syria. IIRC like 10-20 miles south of Turkey's border. I think that is doable. The problem is that most people realize that Turkey really wants it to go after the YPG. I think we can convince them to allow Peshmerga to operate in northern Syria while Turkey and Nato control the sky. The YPG is in competition with the Peshmerga for the hearts of the Kurdish people. Expanded influence of the Peshmerga would definitely come at the expense of the YPG. If we did do this we would need to provide some ground troops in Kurdish Iraq. Luckily they would be welcomed there just like they were before.
 
♪alt13 said:
Turkey's proposed No fly zone would only cover the extreme north of Syria. IIRC like 10-20 miles south of Turkey's border. I think that is doable. The problem is that most people realize that Turkey really wants it to go after the YPG. I think we can convince them to allow Peshmerga to operate in northern Syria while Turkey and Nato control the sky. The YPG is in competition with the Peshmerga for the hearts of the Kurdish people. Expanded influence of the Peshmerga would definitely come at the expense of the YPG. If we did do this we would need to provide some ground troops in Kurdish Iraq. Luckily they would be welcomed there just like they were before.
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Well not violating Turkey's airspace should be easy as well and we see how well that is happening...

But I think that Turkey would go for that. Trick is getting enough NATO members to sign on to be effective. America needs to force other NATO members hands on funding. Canada can't even field a marginally effective navy. Germany needed help with aerial transportation...
 
Stoked said:
Well not violating Turkey's airspace should be easy as well and we see how well that is happening...

But I think that Turkey would go for that. Trick is getting enough NATO members to sign on to be effective. America needs to force other NATO members hands on funding. Canada can't even field a marginally effective navy. Germany needed help with aerial transportation...
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Agreed.

I think the establishment of UN refugee camps within the no fly zone would sell most of Europe. European politicians must do something about Syrian refugees if they want to keep their seats. If that's not enough we have other carrots to get western European countries moving. I think eastern Europeans are already eager for a Nato response and would do their best to show solidarity.
 
♪alt13 said:
Agreed.

I think the establishment of UN refugee camps within the no fly zone would sell most of Europe. European politicians must do something about Syrian refugees if they want to keep their seats. If that's not enough we have other carrots to get western European countries moving. I think eastern Europeans are already eager for a Nato response and would do their best to show solidarity.
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Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria are begging for it. Especially Poland and Estonia. Poland has asked 2-3 times for a 10,000 strong permanent NATO base on its soil. The main opponents to this from what I have read are Germany, Spain and Portugal (not sure about this one) as they feel it antagonizes Russia based on accords that NATO would not proceed to move further east.

But I feel that NATO has pretty much made such agreements useless. They are buzzing almost a dozen NATO members with warplanes and ships (England, Canada, America, Baltics, Turkey...) and have had fights in Ukraine and Georgia to torpedo those nations NATO aspirations.

On a silver lining Sweden and Finland are seeing a surge in public opinion for joining NATO. Sweden is pushing 50% pro nato and 39% anti NATO. That shores up gaps in Europe.

I am starting to believe that this is going to come down to three armed camps in a cold war:

NATO and allies (S. Korea, Israel, Japan, Australia, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Honduras...)

Russian Federation, China, Iran and allies (Cambodia, Mongolia, the "stans", Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela, Iraq, Syria...)

And fence sitters like Brazil, India and S. Africa who will try and sit it out or get pushed into one camp or another by force (like China forcing India into the NATO camp)
 
Stoked said:
Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Bulgaria are begging for it. Especially Poland and Estonia. Poland has asked 2-3 times for a 10,000 strong permanent NATO base on its soil. The main opponents to this from what I have read are Germany, Spain and Portugal (not sure about this one) as they feel it antagonizes Russia based on accords that NATO would not proceed to move further east.

But I feel that NATO has pretty much made such agreements useless. They are buzzing almost a dozen NATO members with warplanes and ships (England, Canada, America, Baltics, Turkey...) and have had fights in Ukraine and Georgia to torpedo those nations NATO aspirations.

On a silver lining Sweden and Finland are seeing a surge in public opinion for joining NATO. Sweden is pushing 50% pro nato and 39% anti NATO. That shores up gaps in Europe.

I am starting to believe that this is going to come down to three armed camps in a cold war:

NATO and allies (S. Korea, Israel, Japan, Australia, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Honduras...)

Russian Federation, China, Iran and allies (Cambodia, Mongolia, the "stans", Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela, Iraq, Syria...)

And fence sitters like Brazil, India and S. Africa who will try and sit it out or get pushed into one camp or another by force (like China forcing India into the NATO camp)
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I really don't think that China and Russia are that close. Financially/business speaking they are much closer to the US. I don't think China would be happy being Russia's little bitch or vice versa. I can't see China risking her finances on Russia's behalf. I expect China to move closer to the US/Europe and further from Russia overtime.
 
♪alt13 said:
I really don't think that China and Russia are that close. Financially/business speaking they are much closer to the US. I don't think China would be happy being Russia's little bitch or vice versa. I can't see China risking her finances on Russia's behalf. I expect China to move closer to the US/Europe and further from Russia overtime.
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Not yet, but they are headed that way. Brick laying. They just signed a huge energy bill a couple months ago and have been signing things left and right.
Russia sent navy ships to support China in the South China Sea. And China is sending military advisors to Syria to support Russia.

It's not on each other's behalf. It's to dethrone America and for them to be the top dog.
 
^must spread rep before giving to stoked again


Putin's decision to launch missiles from the Caspian instead of from the Mediterranean is a clear message. Obama must act decisively and boldly. No half measures.
w2300caspianSYRIA-g.jpg


Putin's next move is going to be to support an independent autonomous region for the Kurds in Syria. He will use it to try to destabilize Turkey. Turkey and the US must get ahead of him on this. Turkey can either have a Kurdistan aligned with Syria, Iran, and Russia on it's border or one that is aligned with Turkey, the US, and Nato. It's time for Obama and Erdogan to lead instead of react.
 
Also one of his next moves will be to further bring Iraq into his growing alliance. Something Iraq is receptive to.

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/i...sian-airstrikes-against-isis-official-n439941

Iraq may request that Russia start a bombing campaign in its country as well. This is something Russia said it will consider if Iraq requests it.

Lebanon is mostly in this group as well. This provides Russia will a directly land bridge of allies from their territory to the Mediterranean Sea.
 
Stoked said:
Also one of his next moves will be to further bring Iraq into his growing alliance. Something Iraq is receptive to.

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/i...sian-airstrikes-against-isis-official-n439941

Iraq may request that Russia start a bombing campaign in its country as well. This is something Russia said it will consider if Iraq requests it.

Lebanon is mostly in this group as well. This provides Russia will a directly land bridge of allies from their territory to the Mediterranean Sea.
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I think Baghdad was always going to move toward Iran, Assad, and Russia. It's Shiite majority the shiite are in power. For us to think otherwise was foolish.
 
The biggest piece of all this is Russia and China.

China is tying countries like Mongolia, Pakistan and Cambodia to it. Pakistan leads to Afghanistan once NATO winds down.

That is a geographically huge directly connected alliance. With huge populations, resources and economies.

The "stans" and Belarus (already has) would join this as well.

Russia, China, Mongolia, Cambodia, N. Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Afghanistan.

It draws hard lines on all sides. Right up against NATO, Asian nations allied with America (Japan, Philippines, S. Korea...) and M.E. nations allied with America (Israel, S. Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan...).

Russia and China are doing masterful work reshaping alliances into a scenario much more favorable to them.
 
♪alt13 said:
I think Baghdad was always going to move toward Iran, Assad, and Russia. It's Shiite majority the shiite are in power. For us to think otherwise was foolish.
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I agree but our politicians clearly thought so. They are making the same mistake in Afghanistan (not Russia but towards Pakistan and by extension China). One of the reasons China will do this, imo, is to counter India which is drifting towards America and allies over the S. China Sea. There are several articles detailing this drift on India's part.
 
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-quds-force-commander-hussein-hamedani-syria-france-russia-isis/

Iran's top general and leader of the Revolutionary Guard was just killed in Syria by terrorists. Wonder what Iran's response will be.

Edit: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a2553c-6e80-11e5-9bfe-e59f5e244f92_story.html

The Pentagon is scaling back/stopping its failed program of training rebel units.

They instead are looking at arming vetted units already in the field. They are also considering providing them air cover against terrorist groups.

Basically what Russia is doing with the Assad gov. What is not clear is if this means armor, troops on the ground or just bombing runs in support of their forces instead of at random.

Will this lead to direct conflict with Russian forces? I doubt it as the US currently has their pilots divert their flight paths if they come within 20 miles of a Russian plane.
 
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