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Rank Our Future Draft Picks

Elizah Huge

Elizah Huge

Respect All, Fear None
Contributor
2024 Award Winner
I thought this would be a fun exercise for us to do. Rank our future draft picks from most valuable to least valuable in your opinion. Here is how I rank them:

1. 2029 CLE unprotected 1st
2. 2027 MIN unprotected 1st
3. 2027 CLE unprotected 1st
4. 2025 MIN unprotected 1st
5. 2023 MIN unprotected 1st
6. 2027 LAL top-4 protected 1st
7. 2029 MIN top-5 protected 1st
8. 2025 CLE unprotected 1st
9. 2023 PHI/BKN lesser of 1st

The hardest part for me is 6-8 and I can see the logic behind those three picks being ranked in any different order.
 
That's probably weighted quite a lot by how high you think the picks will be? Because on the surface 23/24 picks are more valuable than 25/26 are more valuable than 27/28/29. Money in hand soon is better than money in 29.

As for where they might land I doubt the Cavs make it to the top. But I also think their core is young and they'll be loathe to break it up even if they don't make it past the Conference finals once. They could very well still be running out Mitchell, Garland and Mobley in 28.

Whereas I see much more implosion potential with the T-wolves. Gobert is 30 and only going to lose steps and KAT is "already" 27 (older than any of the Cavs core). And this year's Wolves have shown nothing whereas the Cavs look at least a bit frisky.

So let's say
1. 2025 MIN
2. 2023 MIN
3. 2027 MIN
4. LAL / 2029 MIN
6.-8. CLE 25 / 27 / 29
 
Elizah Huge said:
I thought this would be a fun exercise for us to do. Rank our future draft picks from most valuable to least valuable in your opinion. Here is how I rank them:

1. 2029 CLE unprotected 1st
2. 2027 MIN unprotected 1st
3. 2027 CLE unprotected 1st
4. 2025 MIN unprotected 1st
5. 2023 MIN unprotected 1st
6. 2027 LAL top-4 protected 1st
7. 2029 MIN top-5 protected 1st
8. 2025 CLE unprotected 1st
9. 2023 PHI/BKN lesser of 1st

The hardest part for me is 6-8 and I can see the logic behind those three picks being ranked in any different order.
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I would push MIN 2023 to 2nd since I still dont believe in them that much, but otherwise I agree.

If we would include our own picks (assuming 2024 conveys to OKC), I put our 2026 on top with double swap rights and our this years pick 2nd.
 
Elizah Huge said:
I thought this would be a fun exercise for us to do. Rank our future draft picks from most valuable to least valuable in your opinion. Here is how I rank them:

1. 2029 CLE unprotected 1st
2. 2027 MIN unprotected 1st
3. 2027 CLE unprotected 1st
4. 2025 MIN unprotected 1st
5. 2023 MIN unprotected 1st
6. 2027 LAL top-4 protected 1st
7. 2029 MIN top-5 protected 1st
8. 2025 CLE unprotected 1st
9. 2023 PHI/BKN lesser of 1st

The hardest part for me is 6-8 and I can see the logic behind those three picks being ranked in any different order.
Click to expand...

I think you already nailed it. I would rank them similarly.
Might flip flop your #1 and #2 but otherwise i wouldnt change anything.


Sent from my iPad using JazzFanz mobile app
 
Other than uncertainty, what makes you put a premium on the later picks? It’s usually the opposite. The whole NBA and Jazz will undergo multiple transformations before that 2029 pick is used. Do you just assume these teams are great for five years and then go in the toilet? That really doesn’t seem to be the case historically.

I think I’d say the 2025 Wolves pick as most valuable. No clue how that team will look and be playing even two years from now. And the Jazz might be one great pick away from having a real contender built around this current core.
 
The sustainability is obviously difficult to project, but the way the Cavs to be dominanting defensively so quickly, I have no confidence that any of those picks including swaps will be great. maybe good but not great.
In 29 sure the odds are better it might be a great pick, but I wouldn't bet on it.
The Wolves are probably going to blow it up if they dont get it together next season. I have the Wolves 25 at the top of the list to be traded and get the most return.
The rest of them right now are all in a holding pattern for me, and unless Don or Mobley leaves the Cavs in a couple seasons, those picks will get us nothing of value besides being packaged up and sent off to somebody else to dream about being good way before we know for sure.
I expect us to actually use maybe 2 of all these picks on players in drafts besides the ones this year.
The Wolves pick is probably going to be less and less good barring injuries and in the late teens at best for us this year. Too bad, cause they were headed towards the middle lottery for awhile.
The Lakers pick is garbage if they tank the year before which they will. Look how easily they got better at the deadline with basically nothing in their asset bin.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
Other than uncertainty, what makes you put a premium on the later picks? It’s usually the opposite. The whole NBA and Jazz will undergo multiple transformations before that 2029 pick is used. Do you just assume these teams are great for five years and then go in the toilet? That really doesn’t seem to be the case historically.

I think I’d say the 2025 Wolves pick as most valuable. No clue how that team will look and be playing even two years from now. And the Jazz might be one great pick away from having a real contender built around this current core.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree with the first part. People love the uncertainty, but the miracle scenario weighs too heavily in their mind. There’s a reason why people buy scratch tickets and like to gamble, it’s because it’s fun but no it is not rationale.

The TWolves don’t seem to be in a great spot as a franchise, but with KAT, Gobert, and Edwards all locked down to long term deals and/or team controlled it’s hard to see them dropping much further than they are right now.

If I had to bet on one team, one year being bad…it would be the 2027 Lakers. There’s obviously the pick protections there, but if I had to bet on any pick being the highest it would be that LAL pick.
 
Honestly with the Wolves currently in the lottery picture, and what we already know about this upcoming draft class. That 23’ Wolves pick is as valuable as any of them.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
Okay. I still want to hear how more distance from the pick increases it’s value. In terms of trade value it is the opposite.
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That is also not true. The farther the pick the more valuable it is in trade discussions. It is because of uncertainty. Did anyone think Brooklyn’s picks in the future we’re going to be worth anything when they had Durant, Kyrie and Harden? Look at those now.

Cleveland’s 2025 first in particular to me isn’t very valuable due to the fact their core will likely still be in tact. After 2025, Donovan can opt out and that’s where their picks become interesting. Injuries can also happen at any time and derail someone’s season. Do we know who will be on Cleveland’s roster in 2029? No. That’s why it’s so valuable and appealing.
 
Elizah Huge said:
That is also not true. The farther the pick the more valuable it is in trade discussions. It is because of uncertainty. Did anyone think Brooklyn’s picks in the future we’re going to be worth anything when they had Durant, Kyrie and Harden? Look at those now.

Cleveland’s 2025 first in particular to me isn’t very valuable due to the fact their core will likely still be in tact. After 2025, Donovan can opt out and that’s where their picks become interesting. Injuries can also happen at any time and derail someone’s season. Do we know who will be on Cleveland’s roster in 2029? No. That’s why it’s so valuable and appealing.
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A bird in hand is worth two in a bush 6 years from now. You say the uncertainty is what makes is valuable but you are ranking it like it’s a certainty that it will be a great pick when it could very well be mediocre or worse.

A lottery pick in the next draft which we know is a great one is way more valuable than you want to admit because you have dreams of the Jazz being great and still getting top 5 picks half a decade from now. Which is a great dream, but you don’t plan around expecting that to happen.

Here’s a thought experiment: We offer the 2029 Cavs pick straight up to every single team in the lottery this year that is ahead of our 23’ Wolves pick. I say nobody takes it, no way. You disagree?
 
Bawse Dawg said:
A bird in hand is worth two in a bush 6 years from now. You say the uncertainty is what makes is valuable but you are ranking it like it’s a certainty that it will be a great pick when it could very well be mediocre or worse.

A lottery pick in the next draft which we know is a great one is way more valuable than you want to admit because you have dreams of the Jazz being great and still getting top 5 picks half a decade from now. Which is a great dream, but you don’t plan around expecting that to happen.

Here’s a thought experiment: We offer the 2029 Cavs pick straight up to every single team in the lottery this year that is ahead of our 23’ Wolves pick. I say nobody takes it, no way. You disagree?
Click to expand...

That is a good question but teams that are bad now want picks now to try and improve not a pick in 2029.
 
Elizah Huge said:
That is a good question but teams that are bad now want picks now to try and improve not a pick in 2029.
Click to expand...
Such as the Jazz.

Teams who are good also want to improve now, no? So who’s left? I think all teams are more interested in improving now rather than years from now. If Hinkie was still around he’d probably take the call I guess.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
Such as the Jazz.

Teams who are good also want to improve now, no? So who’s left? I think all teams are more interested in improving now rather than years from now. If Hinkie was still around he’d probably take the call I guess.
Click to expand...

Here’s the thing though. The Minnesota pick is currently 14th. You are comparing apples to oranges. Do I think the 2029 Cleveland 1st is worth more than the 14th pick in this draft? Yes, I do.

Is that pick worth more than picks 1-7? Of course not.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
A bird in hand is worth two in a bush 6 years from now. You say the uncertainty is what makes is valuable but you are ranking it like it’s a certainty that it will be a great pick when it could very well be mediocre or worse.

A lottery pick in the next draft which we know is a great one is way more valuable than you want to admit because you have dreams of the Jazz being great and still getting top 5 picks half a decade from now. Which is a great dream, but you don’t plan around expecting that to happen.

Here’s a thought experiment: We offer the 2029 Cavs pick straight up to every single team in the lottery this year that is ahead of our 23’ Wolves pick. I say nobody takes it, no way. You disagree?
Click to expand...
None of these picks that are unknowns, are ever worth that much as is, despite the unknown meaning it "could be better" I think it is fairly simple that until something changes with the teams that the pick range is determined by, like the Cavs in 3 years are either a playoff contending beast, whos picks are garbage for us, in the late 20's. Or they blew it up, Don left and the pick might be lottery for a couple seasons until they get a replacement in free agency. So yeah this years Wolves might be worth more than any of them, turn out to be worth down the road, but that aint saying much.Not since we just gave them an upgrade at the point, and ensured sans him getting hurt, or KAT never playing again this season, that this years won't be that good either.
Imo all these picks are only valuable as add on chips to player trades to upgrade players not to use in the drafts down much at all for a GM with the mindset of Danny Ainge.
I said in my earlier post on here, I doubt we use more than 2 of those future picks on players in drafts and that most picks are flipped. I do think those pick swaps will be advantages for us if the Cavs do somehow end up worse than we are in a couple years and that's pretty much it.
 
Elizah Huge said:
Here’s the thing though. The Minnesota pick is currently 14th. You are comparing apples to oranges. Do I think the 2029 Cleveland 1st is worth more than the 14th pick in this draft? Yes, I do.

Is that pick worth more than picks 1-7? Of course not.
Click to expand...
so are you lol
ranking these picks is fairly useless RIGHT NOW. If you asked me on draft night which has more value to me as a GM the pick in my hand at 14 or the future Cavs pick in 2029 I am taking the 14th
 
1. MIN 2025
Whether we want to draft with it or sell it... It seems west is going to be just better with OKC and Sacramento and us with good future cores. And most other teams in better situations than T Wolves. That 2025 1st is gonna be golden and get us a star drafting with it or trading with that in a package.

2. MIN 2023
We need to hit on this draft and be it getting higher with trading this pick or use it - we need it a lot

3. MIN 2027
The team is still gonna be meh at most. It is T-wolves after all...

4. CLE 2025/MIN 2029
Lot of teams are out of picks right now and might need them sooner than later and also we might have a good use for it ourselves. Minnesota although is gonna be meh at most 4ever... So can't decide on this one.

6. PHI/BKN lesser of 1st 2023
We are going to be good in 2-3 seasons. This is so valuable to us whether we trade it to someone or improve our draft position with it or use it.

7. I can not decide between protected LAL 2027 and CLE 2027 and CLE 2029. All of them might be meh or might be real good.
 
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