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Reasons to Keep Matthews

billyshelby said:
All the Jazz have to do is figure out how much upside Matthews really has. His numbers and athleticism do not indicate a guy with upside.
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How do his numbers indicate no upside?
No one ever improves their scoring average after their rookie season? Matthews won't get more shots? Or if he drops to say, 45% - in the range of Johnson, Bryant, Crawford and Iguodala, that would make him a bust?

Yes, it's very unusual for a SG to average 48%. That puts him ahead of everyone else at his position, including DWade, Allen, Roy and Richardson. So I guess we have to criticize Matthews for working TOO hard. Damn, if he had only shot in the low-40's and 30% on his 3's. Then he'd have "upside."

I'd be thrilled to have a starting SG stay in the 46%-48% range, especially one who also plays decent defense. Give him 12-14 shots per game instead of 7 and he could easily be in the 16-18 pt range per game. And I don't care if he "improves" his shooting one bit. 48%/38%/83% - those are pretty gaudy stats. Oh yeah, but I guess a player who is already at the ripe OLD age of 24 can't improve a bit. He won't get any better at help defense, he won't get any better at learning other SG's tendencies so he can be a better man-to-man defender.

AS I recall, not too many SG's really went off on the Jazz. Certainly not like the days of Derek Fisher. As a ROOKIE, Wesley committed < 2 fouls per game. You know what that tells me? Wesley played pretty good positional defense. He stayed in front of his man, moved his feet and didn't reach. That's phenomenal for a rookie!

I don't care about rebounds. In the Jazz scheme, the guards don't hit the boards, and especially not when you have Boozer and Millsap eating the glass. I don't care about assists. Matthews didn't get a ton of touches. The ball went through the hands of Deron, Boozer and AK. Even steals are misleading. I'd rather have a guard playing straight up than taking chances on jumping the passing lanes and getting beaten.

If he had 3 years of stats, showing minutes/per increasing each year and pts going from 9 to 12 to 14, there's no question he'd get an offer like this and we'd match. It's a risk, sure. But I think the risk is minimal. At worst, he's reached his ceiling and we have a mid-level starter or an expensive backup. At best, we have a starter giving us 16-18 pts., able to hit his 3's consisently and play pesky defense.
 
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Harcher said:
"15. You can't find guards who give you 9.5/2/1.5 in 25MPG just anywhere. "


John Salmons has a new 5 year $39M contract. His percentages are almost the same over the last couple of years (8 year vet to get there) but averages 2x points (19ish) and plays 38mpg. I don't think that Wes goes to 19ppg in 38min (system doesn't really allow that and its only 13 more mins a game), but he'd proably be at 12-13ppg with 38mpg's and same %'s (effectiveness.) So is John Salmons overpaid at 8/year?

Maybe this is really Millsap all over: At first it was a bit higher than expected, but really, looks to be a fair (or better) $value. I like Wes. Last night I said no way to this contract. But it was late and i couldn't believe the numbers. I could be softening up.

I think BillyShelby can help us understand how he is rated 28th in everything for shooting guards when I see him compared to Salmons looking more worth it. 7.0/year is probably average NBA pay. Billy, If Wes gets 35mpg would he rate as an average NBA wing? He has the efficiency of Salmons yet only 23 years old (Salmons matured after 4 years)

The next measure is how good is his defense really? Bruce Bowen? Raja Bell? ... Ronnie Brewer? He can and will get better than he is today at defense for certain.

Another late night logical conundrum reading all 300 posts last night: Most of us believe he's BETTER than Korver today. Korver got 5/year. Korver's at his peak about after 7ish years in the league. So Wes should be on an upswing - Maybe 7/year isn't so bad??
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Good post. I too am starting to warm up to the idea of matching (which I think we'll do anyway), especially since the contract is front-loaded and won't hurt as much going forward.

More food for thought. Though he didn't qualify on nba.com for whatever reason (I'm assuming shot attempts), Matthews' PPS was 1.36 last year. That's higher than Deron Williams. And to put it into perspective, the only 2's or 3's who qualified with a better PPS were Maggs, Pierce, Durant, Lebron, Gerald Wallace, and Ginobili. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying he's better than Williams or these other players or that PPS is some end-all stat. However, 1.36 for a rookie wing is extremely impressive and that's undeniable. Will he remain that efficient with more time and more shots this year? I doubt it. But history tells us that the large majority of players improve over time.
 
No way the Jazz should match. I'd rather keep Boozer for the next 5 years at $15 mil per than Matthews for the next 5 at the full MLE.
I also agree his upside is limited, and outside the Jazz system I'd be shocked if he matches his production from last year (since feb) as a starter with the same amt of minutes.
 
Let Wes go! its better to be shadow of ROY and get few mil more.

Than to be a starter and get 35 min in a game!

Wes be a shadow! Its better role for you!

And remember. That without Sloan and Utah Jazz you will be played somewhere in Norway or D-League.

Just Hate those not loyal player.
 
Where does BillyShelby get his poor athleticism idea from? Do you watch the games? Matthews is one of the fastest players in the open court in the league. The guy is faster than a lot of point guards and has a very quick first step.
 
I can only trust the Jazz on this to make the right decision. If they match, then they must be convinced that he's worth it

All the stats that people are bringing up are just pointless. If you want to sit here and tell me that Wes should be compared to Wade, Kobe or anyone like that, just because he shot 48%

Well, guess what, Brewer shot over 50% most of the time.
 
craig2112 said:
I can only trust the Jazz on this to make the right decision. If they match, then they must be convinced that he's worth it

All the stats that people are bringing up are just pointless. If you want to sit here and tell me that Wes should be compared to Wade, Kobe or anyone like that, just because he shot 48%

Well, guess what, Brewer shot over 50% most of the time.
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Brewer also sucked from the line and couldn't even surpass the Mendoza line from three.
 
GlassEater said:
Or to play devil's advocate:
After 8 years, especially after a player reaches his 30's, production generally declines. So Salmons may already be at/very near his peak (he's already 31 yrs. old). On the other hand, Matthews is only 24. And his per game statistics, especially pts/per are misleading. Look at FG%, not points. Give him more shots (he had less than 7/per) and he potentially doubles his scoring average, especially since the offense will be more diverse with Carlos gone. If I'm going to "overpay," I'd much rather take a risk on a player who is likely on an upswing, rather than a player who is likely at the top and could significantly decline.

I agree that having 1 year of data is a gamble. But you also have to look at the character of Matthews. I think it is very unlikely he quits working on his game once he signs the big contract, a la AK47. More likely he continues to work hard. That just seems to be his basic nature. And you can't teach that. It's what makes average players, good and good players, great.
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This is why it was better to sign Matthews to two years minimum out of college; one year isn't a lot of data. I think that Dee Brown would've been just fine as a backup PG if Utah had held onto him for another year--and it would've made Deron happy too (not that DW's feelings are the end all).

In the case of Matthews, he is the son of an NBA player (just like Brewer), which is an indicator that he would be a character guy. It seems to me that they could've taken that leap of faith to sign him for two years from the get-go. He's a lower risk than C.J. was. C.J. took three or four years to come into his own anyway, partly b/c of maturity. As a Junior entering the NBA, Matthews was less like to have the same maturity issues. And he didn't. If Utah can land one of these other "subsititutes" for significantly less money, fine. But I

What pisses me off about the Portland thing is that it's smells of rich man's bullying. Most teams wouldn't blow the MLE (with a loaded contract) on a player who will likely be a backup. The theory that they are overpaying Matthews for CP3 (mentioned elsewhere) seems a bit farfetched.
 
InGameStrategy said:
This is why it was better to sign Matthews to two years minimum out of college; one year isn't a lot of data. I think that Dee Brown would've been just fine as a backup PG if Utah had held onto him for another year--and it would've made Deron happy too (not that DW's feelings are the end all).

In the case of Matthews, he is the son of an NBA player (just like Brewer), which is an indicator that he would be a character guy. It seems to me that they could've taken that leap of faith to sign him for two years from the get-go. He's a lower risk than C.J. was. C.J. took three or four years to come into his own anyway, partly b/c of maturity. As a Junior entering the NBA, Matthews was less like to have the same maturity issues. And he didn't. If Utah can land one of these other "subsititutes" for significantly less money, fine. But I

What pisses me off about the Portland thing is that it's smells of rich man's bullying. Most teams wouldn't blow the MLE (with a loaded contract) on a player who will likely be a backup. The theory that they are overpaying Matthews for CP3 (mentioned elsewhere) seems a bit farfetched.
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Heads up. You have an error at the end of the second to last paragraph.
 
Furthermore, on athleticism, it seems people only base it on a guy's vertical. Foot speed and strength also need to be factored in, and Matthews is extremely strong, as you might notice from how he finishes inside.
 
Let him go.

We can't continue to sign players for outrageous prices to keep the team mediocre
 
Quoting from the SLTrib:

Although his contract is frontloaded, Matthews would only count $5.765 million in luxury-tax calculations. Should they re-sign him, the Jazz would have $64.8 million committed to nine players for this season. The tax threshold is $70.307 million.

Since the contract only counts the mid-level against the cap, I think the chances of the Jazz matching go way up.

I was thinking it counted $9.2m, making it nearly impossible to add another player. With this information, i think the Jazz will match.
 
mfree said:
Quoting from the SLTrib:

Although his contract is frontloaded, Matthews would only count $5.765 million in luxury-tax calculations. Should they re-sign him, the Jazz would have $64.8 million committed to nine players for this season. The tax threshold is $70.307 million.

Since the contract only counts the mid-level against the cap, I think the chances of the Jazz matching go way up.

I was thinking it counted $9.2m, making it nearly impossible to add another player. With this information, i think the Jazz will match.
Click to expand...

I like Matthews a lot, but I'm looking for the Jazz to let him walk as a sign that we'll let other teams overpay our players if they want without matching. I wish Matthews the best and hope that Portland enjoys his services for what they're paying him. They aren't paying him what he's worth, they're playing us. They think that now that Korver left we're stuck and will feel obligated to match. We shouldn't. Anytime they want to overpay one of our players I say we let them have him. Once they have 2-4 of our players making way more than they should producing mediocure results they'll probably stop messing with us.
 
I have hard time believing the only reason they want matthews is to screw the Jazz over, sorry. They obviously like Matthews and aren't concerned about money with Paul Allen as owner. If the offer pisses off the Jazz I would assume that's just icing on the cake for Portland.
 
First off, he may be the best man defender on our squad, as a ROOKIE. Undersized? Disagree; yes, only 6'5", but strength-wise he's well above average for a SG. Ray Allen is only 6'4". Strength will help with D more than height w/o strength. Not sure where the "not athletic" comes from either. Vertical? A smart player uses his body to keep opponents from where they want to be on the floor, not his height to outjump him. Matthews is remarkably smart for a rookie.
If we don't re-sign him, I will be extremely surprised and have to question the Jazz organization's committment to winning. That would be 2 starters and a key bench player all in their prime we just let walk; not good!
 
mfree said:
Quoting from the SLTrib:

Although his contract is frontloaded, Matthews would only count $5.765 million in luxury-tax calculations. Should they re-sign him, the Jazz would have $64.8 million committed to nine players for this season. The tax threshold is $70.307 million.

Since the contract only counts the mid-level against the cap, I think the chances of the Jazz matching go way up.

I was thinking it counted $9.2m, making it nearly impossible to add another player. With this information, i think the Jazz will match.
Click to expand...

I hope they don't match. There are other players who are just as good or better that we could sign for pieces of that MLE.
 
LOL! Cant' make it, 'write'; I'm all the way over in Florida.
Another point; the Jazz already traded Brewer away ONLY because they were convinced Matthews was the real deal. If they hadn't been convinced on Matthews, no way they trade Brewer. Bringing Brewer back is fine, but only as a backup at either SG or SF.
 
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