Republicans and Fascism

[One Brow]

Wait, are you just trolling?

First, thank you for stepping into this discussion. While the material certainly seemed errant to me, I don't have the background to dispatch it with such ease and clarity.

I think @Al-O-Meter is very serious, and so not trolling in that sense. He seems to think he understands things better than he does. Frankly, our relationship is so poisoned that I don't care much to try anymore.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

This is elementary stuff, where did you study economics?

San Diego State University. At least you are now pointing to the correct statistics. As for the correlation over the past 8 years on your chart, it is by design. Try looking at M2 versus deficit spending during the dot-com boom years in the second half of the Clinton presidency. What I wrote was that Congress passing a budget in which spending exceeds revenue does not necessarily cause M2 to rise. I did not say they never track together but that there is regulatory gap between the two except for when the government uses the deficit to directly purchase Federal Reserve currency which it then blows into the economy. In that case, sure, when the debt is buying currency they will rise in lock step.

I don't care if you did study this at a graduate level or are only claiming you did to give yourself some credibility. Either way, what you wrote in your earlier post was wrong.

 

[silesian]

San Diego State University. At least you are now pointing to the correct statistics. As for the correlation over the past 8 years on your chart, it is by design. Try looking at M2 versus deficit spending during the dot-com boom years in the second half of the Clinton presidency. What I wrote was that Congress passing a budget in which spending exceeds revenue does not necessarily cause M2 to rise. I did not say they never track together but that there is regulatory gap between the two except for when the government uses the deficit to directly purchase Federal Reserve currency which it then blows into the economy. In that case, sure, when the debt is buying currency they will rise in lock step.

I don't care if you did study this at a graduate level or are only claiming you did to give yourself some credibility. Either way, what you wrote in your earlier post was wrong.

Deficit spending increases M2. It multivariate. Other things impact M2. You can say it is wrong all you like. The facts don’t care about your opinion.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Deficit spending increases M2. It multivariate. Other things impact M2.

I have no issues with this statement. What you wrote here is entirely correct.

Where you were talking out of your butt was when you wrote that any year in which Congress passed a budget that had revenue > spending would reduce the amount of money in circulation. Here is your exact quote:

Congress controls the purse strings and any year they could pass a budget that has revenue > spending, which would reduce the amount of money in circulation

...And here is the chart to show you were talking out of your butt:

This is the chart of M2 from 01/01/1998 though 12/31/2001. From 1998 though 2001 Congress passed budgets that had revenue > spending. What you wrote in the earlier quote that I took issue with was wrong. Those budgets demonstrably did not reduce the amount of money in circulation.

 

[silesian]

Where you were talking out of your butt was when you wrote that any year in which Congress passed a budget that had revenue > spending would reduce the amount of money in circulation.

Let me break it down on clearer terms

This is your framing:
a: More cars on the roads lead to more pollution
b: But that is impossible because the number of cars went up and pollution went down! Therefore fewer cars means more pollution!

This is a type of “post hoc, ergo propter hoc” logical fallacy

The correct framing:
a: More cars on the highway lead to more pollution, all else equal
b.. So while pollution has gone down, it would have gone down by more if the number of cars had not increased. Alas, there may be other factors involved!
c. Hey look, the average mpg also went up and three factories were shut down. Aha, it is a multivariate relationship! Math is cool!!


So you can say that: "all else equal, a budget surplus will reduce M2"

And you can say that "every budget surplus does not necessarily result in an reduction in M2, because there are many other factors that affect M2, some of which may be driving M2 in the opposite direction."

Got it now?

 

[Deleted member 365]

This is exactly what working class people need right? Cuz economic anxiety, gas prices, and something something…

View: https://twitter.com/davidcorndc/status/1584905313601392646?s=46&t=JDOeacKaTUJsEmVCvlrv8w

Russia is signaling to Qanon/Repubs here:

View: https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1584930049480085505?s=46&t=JDOeacKaTUJsEmVCvlrv8w

And it’s Biden’s fault Covid is still a thing, right? When conservative propaganda pulls this kind of ****?
View: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1584972155288227841?s=46&t=JDOeacKaTUJsEmVCvlrv8w


This is a really good article and I wished more people read it and understood just the basics about democracy, economics, and history.

Hurting Democracy Won’t Help the Economy

Our fellow citizens need to think about what life will look like if the GOP wins.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Got it now?

Oh, I've got it but then I always had it. What I'm asking is why I bothered and to that I'm still not sure.

So you can say that: "all else equal, a budget surplus will reduce M2"

Find me an example of where it has ever happened in history subsequent to the Federal Reserve Act. That Keynesian idea you are selling has been a laughing stock since the late 70's when it stagflated the economy and Volker came in to do what the Fed is now mimicking. You were on safe ground when you said that deficit spending was inflationary but the absence of deficit spending does not erase Federal Reserve notes from circulation. Only the Federal Reserve has the power to remove Federal Reserve notes from circulation. If the Federal Reserve wants there to be an increase in M2 in a time of budget surpluses, there will be a rise in M2. However, if the Federal Reserve is trying to reduce M2 then sizable congressional deficit spending can make that difficult or maybe even impossible because as we both agree, deficit spending is inflationary.

As I framed the issue in this thread four days ago:

Our house is on fire. The Fed arrived late and initially with too few trucks but they are here now to fight the fire. Meanwhile the Democrats are still running around the house setting more fires. What the fiscal conservatives will do to help put the fire out is to stop lighting more fires while the Fed works to extinguish the inferno the firebug no-spending-package-too-big-democrats created.

 

[One Brow]

What the fiscal conservatives will do to help put the fire out is to stop lighting more fires

Comparatively speaking, the fiscal conservatives are already in power. Over the past 40 years, the Republicans have increased the debt (and therefore money supply) much more.

Of course, you don't seem to really care about fiscal conservatism. You seem to be interested in eliminating the social safety net and allowing people to discriminate against LGBTQ+ people. Republicans are great for that.

 

[silesian]

Find me an example of where it has ever happened in history subsequent to the Federal Reserve Act. That Keynesian idea you are selling has been a laughing stock since the late 70's when it stagflated the economy and Volker came in to do what the Fed is now mimicking. You were on safe ground when you said that deficit spending was inflationary but the absence of deficit spending does not erase Federal Reserve notes from circulation. Only the Federal Reserve has the power to remove Federal Reserve notes from circulation. If the Federal Reserve wants there to be an increase in M2 in a time of budget surpluses, there will be a rise in M2. However, if the Federal Reserve is trying to reduce M2 then sizable congressional deficit spending can make that difficult or maybe even impossible because as we both agree, deficit spending is inflationary.

I'm perplexed how you understand that deficit spending increases M2 and is inflationary but having a budget surplus does not decrease M2 and is not disinflationary. This is a well understood economic principle and it really is not much more than simple monetary supply and demand. Conservative and Liberal economics both embrace this fundamental principle.

Keynes believed that government spending can stabilize the economy and I have made no comment on this either pro or con. As I'm a fiscal conservative, maybe you can guess my opinion. Or you can lie and claim that I am "selling" something based on what your imaginary friend has whispered into your ear.

And finally, if you think any politician is fiscally conservative today, I want some of what you are smoking. If this were true, Government spending would have been slashed when the GOP controlled all 3 branches of government for 2 years. Nope, spend, spend spend. Debts have run up much more under the GOP.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

I'm perplexed how you understand that deficit spending increases M2 and is inflationary but having a budget surplus does not decrease M2 and is not disinflationary.

In a nutshell it is strictly because M2 is a measure of Federal Reserve currency and Congress does not have power over it. Deficit spending is inflationary because the primary buyer of government debt is the Federal Reserve and they nearly always, but not absolutely always, increase the amount of reserve currency to buy the debt.

The box has to be big enough to hold the egg. If you grow the size of the egg, you'll need a bigger box to hold it. Shrinking the egg doesn't mean the box must shrink to hold it. The Federal Reserve can choose to shrink the box if the egg is smaller but it never does. That is what the 1998-2001 chart was showing. M2 is the size of the box, and the size of the box is up to the Fed. Only the size of the egg is up to Congress.

If you were intending to say economists on the political left think as you do in terms of Congress having the power legislatively control the size of M2, then please explain 'The Inflation Reduction Act' the democrats just passed on a party-line vote.

 

[silesian]

If you were intending to say economists on the political left think as you do in terms of Congress having the power legislatively control the size of M2, then please explain 'The Inflation Reduction Act' the democrats just passed on a party-line vote.

I neither stated nor implied any such thing. You have a great imagination.

What is your question about the so-called "inflation reduction act"?

 

[Deleted member 365]

@Red Willie Horton says “hi!”

If this is what our “liberal media” says who needs conservative media? It’s like Americans no longer have memories. It’s like the southern strategy, deployed by republicans every election cycle over the last 50 years, never happened.


View: https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1584990202439020547?s=46&t=Iq7hskrTci_awkCTUwHonw