If you look at the past several NBA drafts, only a small number of players make a big impact as starters for their respective teams during their rookie year or 2nd year in the league. It takes most players at least 2+ years to really become impact players, regardless of where they are drafted.
Here are some examples:
In 2009, the only players that excelled as starters were Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings and Stephen Curry. Jrue Holiday came on towards the end of the season, and Darren Collison also excelled when Chris Paul was injurred. All of these players were guards, and none of them (with the exception of Jennings) played on playoff teams.
There are a number of high-potential players from this draft that will probably pan out, but haven't matured yet.
In the 2008 draft class, there are more players who became high-impact starters for their respective teams by their second year in the league--including Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Russel Westbrook, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, and Jason Thompson. However, with the exception of Rose, Westbrook and Robin Lopez, they all play for teams that are back in the lottery.
My point is... no matter who the Jazz draft, it's likely going to be at least a year or two before this player makes a real impact as a starting-rotation player--something you'd hope the Jazz get with a lottery pick they've been waiting years for. That being the case, the Jazz should take the player with the most upside and potential to contribute meaningful minutes in 2 years.
It looks like there are only 3 or 4 players in this year's draft whom you could count on to come in, crack the Jazz's starting or 4th-quarter rotation and make a difference. Those players are Wall, Favors, Turner and W. Johnson. So if we're debating between the likes of Monroe, Udoh, Whiteside, Babbit, Aldrich, Aminu, etc. we should really be picking based on their potential to help take the Jazz to a higher level 1-2 years from now. There's not much point picking a regular rotation player with this pick. That's not going to get the Jazz past the 2nd round.
Here are some examples:
In 2009, the only players that excelled as starters were Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings and Stephen Curry. Jrue Holiday came on towards the end of the season, and Darren Collison also excelled when Chris Paul was injurred. All of these players were guards, and none of them (with the exception of Jennings) played on playoff teams.
There are a number of high-potential players from this draft that will probably pan out, but haven't matured yet.
In the 2008 draft class, there are more players who became high-impact starters for their respective teams by their second year in the league--including Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Russel Westbrook, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, and Jason Thompson. However, with the exception of Rose, Westbrook and Robin Lopez, they all play for teams that are back in the lottery.
My point is... no matter who the Jazz draft, it's likely going to be at least a year or two before this player makes a real impact as a starting-rotation player--something you'd hope the Jazz get with a lottery pick they've been waiting years for. That being the case, the Jazz should take the player with the most upside and potential to contribute meaningful minutes in 2 years.
It looks like there are only 3 or 4 players in this year's draft whom you could count on to come in, crack the Jazz's starting or 4th-quarter rotation and make a difference. Those players are Wall, Favors, Turner and W. Johnson. So if we're debating between the likes of Monroe, Udoh, Whiteside, Babbit, Aldrich, Aminu, etc. we should really be picking based on their potential to help take the Jazz to a higher level 1-2 years from now. There's not much point picking a regular rotation player with this pick. That's not going to get the Jazz past the 2nd round.
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