Rudy to Hawks Speculation

[Handlogten's Heros]

I've been pretty clear on my thoughts of our team. You should know; you've been around:

Donovan - who we should be building around. He is our superstar.
Royce - he's valuable because he'll do the dirty work without demanding the ball
Joe - he is Jazz basketball
Bojan - fair contract, plays with grit, and we need his shooting

Conley - overpaid (both his contract and what we paid). Don should be PG. He should go.
JC - keep him if Conley is dealt. We really don't need both guys because one of them should lead the 2nd unit.

Rudy - we are better with him than without him. However, don't overpay him. He is overvalued by Jazz fans rightfully so, but that doesn't mean we HAVE to have him for success. Don is our superstar. If Rudy can't defer to Don, then Rudy goes. It's that simple. We have a ten year window with Don. Overpaying Rudy could sacrifice half of that window.


So.... Rudy accept a fair deal, build around Don, figure out Conley vs JC, and we fight for a title hopefully.

What is the fair extension in your mind? I want numbers and years.

 

[LoPo]

What is the fair extension in your mind? I want numbers and years.

I would extend Rudy to 4 years and $120. I would make it a declining deal as well. Pay him something like $33, $31, $29, $27. The first year, he's being paid like an All NBA/All Star type player. As he likely declines with age, he's still getting more than almost every center in the league. $27 million for 33 year old Rudy is a lot of money considering where he might be as a player.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

I've been pretty clear on my thoughts of our team. You should know; you've been around:

Donovan - who we should be building around. He is our superstar.
Royce - he's valuable because he'll do the dirty work without demanding the ball
Joe - he is Jazz basketball
Bojan - fair contract, plays with grit, and we need his shooting

Conley - overpaid (both his contract and what we paid). Don should be PG. He should go.
JC - keep him if Conley is dealt. We really don't need both guys because one of them should lead the 2nd unit.

Rudy - we are better with him than without him. However, don't overpay him. He is overvalued by Jazz fans rightfully so, but that doesn't mean we HAVE to have him for success. Don is our superstar. If Rudy can't defer to Don, then Rudy goes. It's that simple. We have a ten year window with Don. Overpaying Rudy could sacrifice half of that window.


So.... Rudy accept a fair deal, build around Don, figure out Conley vs JC, and we fight for a title hopefully.

You’re incredibly delusional.

I don’t see Mitchell carrying this team to a title. How many 6-1 and under guys have been the lead man to a championship? I’m not dissing on Mitchell at all, but at 6-1 a guy just can’t affect a game the way a Kobe, Jordan or LBJ can. He needs Gobert, Gobert is the one with the most impact on this team. If you don’t pay Gobert, this team has no shot unless we get extremely lucky, and that doesn’t happen often.

 

[LoPo]

You’re incredibly delusional.

I don’t see Mitchell carrying this team to a title. How many 6-1 and under guys have been the lead man to a championship? I’m not dissing on Mitchell at all, but at 6-1 a guy just can’t affect a game the way a Kobe, Jordan or LBJ can. He needs Gobert, Gobert is the one with the most impact on this team. If you don’t pay Gobert, this team has no shot unless we get extremely lucky, and that doesn’t happen often.

Go watch a playoff game. Actually, go watch all 4 series the last 3 years. When we win, it's because Don plays great. There are so few instances when we win and Don is below average. We aren't winning, and to be fair, we aren't losing because of Rudy.

If we want to be relevant, Rudy is our 2nd best player. If we want to win a title, we need Rudy to be our 3rd best overall player. We can't find that 3rd player if Rudy is getting paid anything near a supermax.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

0% chance at happening

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I would extend Rudy to 4 years and $120. I would make it a declining deal as well. Pay him something like $33, $31, $29, $27. The first year, he's being paid like an All NBA/All Star type player. As he likely declines with age, he's still getting more than almost every center in the league. $27 million for 33 year old Rudy is a lot of money considering where he might be as a player.

And if you start there it is very easy to say keep him at 4/134M... could even tie the difference out with incentives for making all defensive teams and the team making the second round of the playoffs. The extra 14M doesn't change any of the cap gymnastics in future years.

If its supermax or nothing then we move him, but we'd get .50 on the dollar because only teams that he will agree to an extension with will bid or they will get a 1 year rental type offer from a team not sure they can keep him.

If a Rudy trade happens pre-extension it will likely be a horrible return. If we re-sign and trade him next year if things ain't working it likely gets a much better return.

I just don't think this is something we should get excited about considering.

 

[LoPo]

And if you start there it is very easy to say keep him at 4/134M... could even tie the difference out with incentives for making all defensive teams and the team making the second round of the playoffs. The extra 14M doesn't change any of the cap gymnastics in future years.

If its supermax or nothing then we move him, but we'd get .50 on the dollar because only teams that he will agree to an extension with will bid or they will get a 1 year rental type offer from a team not sure they can keep him.

If a Rudy trade happens pre-extension it will likely be a horrible return. If we re-sign and trade him next year if things ain't working it likely gets a much better return.

I just don't think this is something we should get excited about considering.

I don't want to pay the $14 million extra. If we weren't in a cap limited time of COVID, I might be more willing. We have zero idea what's going to happen going forward. I think the election might keep things more restricted for the next season and maybe beyond. Regardless, we simply don't know. But giving Rudy almost $150 million (counting this year) for the next 5 years is amazing.

You make good points about his trade value, but Atlanta is one of those teams with nothing to lose. Rudy fixes such a large portion of their issues of taking that next step. If we can't agree to a deal with Rudy because he wants more than we want to give, Atlanta is probably willing to pay the price since so much of their roster is on rookie deals for most of the next 4-5 years.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Atlanta isn't likely going to give us Collins. If they do a deal, they'll offer Capella, #6 and something else.

I can see the appeal of Trae Young + Rudy Gobert spacing the floor vertically. That's part of the Golden State concept that started with Steph and Bogut. I think ATL has interest in Gobert, but not sure what the deal would be.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't want to pay the $14 million extra. If we weren't in a cap limited time of COVID, I might be more willing. We have zero idea what's going to happen going forward. I think the election might keep things more restricted for the next season and maybe beyond. Regardless, we simply don't know. But giving Rudy almost $150 million (counting this year) for the next 5 years is amazing.

You make good points about his trade value, but Atlanta is one of those teams with nothing to lose. Rudy fixes such a large portion of their issues of taking that next step. If we can't agree to a deal with Rudy because he wants more than we want to give, Atlanta is probably willing to pay the price since so much of their roster is on rookie deals for most of the next 4-5 years.

Wait... 14M over 4 years is too much and we need to make a franchise altering move over 3.5M per year? That does nothing for our cap situation and if Ryan's financials are that fragile he shouldn't own the team. 3.5M is like what teams sell a bad second round pick for. That's like a jersey patch deal. Qualtrics actually bought the jersey patch deal and donated it to 5 for the fight. It would be bad business to balk at 3.5M difference.

We won't have the Covid restrictions in a year imo... I think it has a small affect if any on the 2021-22 season. Might have to have a vaccine to attend or something but the vaccine is seemingly close. I actually think politicians can now govern somewhat intelligently with the election over. So unnecessary restrictions may be gone.

Atlanta has a ton to lose... if they give away the young talent they have bottomed out to get for a one year rental then every MFer in the front office is gone.

 

[LoPo]

Wait... 14M over 4 years is too much and we need to make a franchise altering move over 3.5M per year? That does nothing for our cap situation and if Ryan's financials are that fragile he shouldn't own the team. 3.5M is like what teams sell a bad second round pick for. That's like a jersey patch deal. Qualtrics actually bought the jersey patch deal and donated it to 5 for the fight. It would be bad business to balk at 3.5M difference.

We won't have the Covid restrictions in a year imo... I think it has a small affect if any on the 2021-22 season. Might have to have a vaccine to attend or something but the vaccine is seemingly close. I actually think politicians can now govern somewhat intelligently with the election over. So unnecessary restrictions may be gone.

Atlanta has a ton to lose... if they give away the young talent they have bottomed out to get for a one year rental then every MFer in the front office is gone.

It is unwise to make any assumption on what the new owner will do. Even if we have the richest owner ever, we still have to work within a salary cap and build a team that fits under the luxury more times than not. I'm not worried about having the money for Rudy. I'm worried about having money to build around Don and Rudy.

I don't think we will be back to full capacity at any point during the 20-21 season. That will make a huge effect on the bottom line. Even if we have a vaccine, a large portion of the country won't take it due to possible side effects. It's not going to be a smooth transition.

Let's say Atlanta sends us Collins, Capella and Huerter straight up for Rudy. They still have Trae, Reddish, Hunter, Dedmon, a few other young guys and cap space to work with. It's not like we are taking every young guy they got. Like I said before, Atlanta wants to win now and all they have are good young pieces and Trae. If they added a great piece like Rudy, it makes all of their lives easier. Cam Reddish could have a field day playing off the Trae/Rudy PnR.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

an extra 3.5M doesn't change cap planning or thinking... especially if it is used to retain one of your two most important players.

Atlanta would definitely do that deal because they win that trade imo. Collins Capela and Huerter for Rudy doesn't make us better imo and likely messes up the cap worse than Rudy's deal. Collins is extension eligible. Collins and Huerter haven't proved to help a team be better at winning basketball games. Collins puts up impressive numbers but he's a tricky fit on a good team. His next contract could be way worse than Rudy's.

Huerter is still just a theoretically good player. He's not actually good. The Hawks were a trash team in the EAST... so these young guys while somewhat promising are really just scratcher tickets that could be fairly worthless.

Long story short... I'd need the #6 with a similar package as outlined above... I'd rather have Rudy at 4/135M even with the pick.

 

[Cptgrnlngs22]

I’ve spent way too much of my time scrolling through theoretical trades and the conclusion that I’ve come too is that IF we are put into a position where we trade Gobert scratcher tickets is about all we are going to get for him unfortunately. Conley seems to have a little more value round the league than I would have thought, though he did have a good playoff series for the most part. The problem is if your following strict salary cap protocol and trying to stay under the luxury it gets tricky moving Conley for anything more than another one year rental. If the owner is willing to pay out then we can swap Conley for something. No assumptions made regarding the new owner but he is local and also a fan...a supremely rich one at that. If I had his money and bought the jazz I would already be tinkering like Cuban does.


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