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Should we go full rebuild?

Should we go full rebuild?

  • Total voters
    83
Handlogten's Heros said:
there are two sides to the coin though. You can tank but still be semi-respectable in the 4-6 range instead of the complete bottoming out to the bottom 2-3 teams. Either way it counts as an example. There are examples of many models working and infinitely more of them failing. One team wins a title each year and 29 others don't. If you are title or bust then you are hoping for a big time outlier outcome somewhere. 10-14% chance at a guy like Wemby is actually about as good as it gets mathetically.
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This is the thing the anti-tankers conveniently avoid mentioning when talking about the small odds of winning the lottery. Yes! 14% at Wemby is not great! Yes... in general the chance of you drafting an MVP, even at no. 1 in any given draft is not great! But you know what's MUCH MUCH harder? Drafting an MVP from the middle of the draft... or trading for an MVP ... or getting an MVP from FA. This is especially true for a team like Utah. There is a reason teams value high picks that much compared to picks in the teens or the twenties. And again ... I am not blind to the realities of how hard it is to build a championship team ... and IMO it's so hard and it requires so much luck that IMO that shouldn't even be the ultimate goal. The ultimate goal should be building a team that has realistic chances at going all the way and winning it all. From then on... you enjoy the journey and you hope for the lucky bounces to fall your way.
 
stitches said:
This is the thing the anti-tankers conveniently avoid mentioning when talking about the small odds of winning the lottery. Yes! 14% at Wemby is not great! Yes... in general the chance of you drafting an MVP, even at no. 1 in any given draft is not great! But you know what's MUCH MUCH harder? Drafting an MVP from the middle of the draft... or trading for an MVP ... or getting an MVP from FA. This is especially true for a team like Utah. There is a reason teams value high picks that much compared to picks in the teens or the twenties. And again ... I am not blind to the realities of how hard it is to build a championship team ... and IMO it's so hard and it requires so much luck that IMO that shouldn't even be the ultimate goal. The ultimate goal should be building a team that has realistic chances at going all the way and winning it all. From then on... you enjoy the journey and you hope for the lucky bounces to fall your way.
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Kinda how I feel. I do think when you are clearly in a rebuild like we were when we traded Don/Rudy... and there is an obvious generational talent available... and the consolation prizes ain't half bad... like we fumbled the bag there by not cutting deep enough. I have said I don't blame the FO too much because our schedule was supposed to be death and we started 10-3 but I file that under "**** around and find out". When you KNOW that teams will be motivated later to tank you don't eff around.

This year... whatevs. Next year... don't eff around. Either tank or honestly try to make the play in.
 
homeytennis said:
Remember when we tanked and DedEx showed up in our Christmas Stocking?
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Yeah that happens. Tanking is a process... need more than one bite at the apple. Unless you are San Antonio.
 
I am inching closer to a full blown tank. Need to do more homework on the 2025 draft but if we dipped down for 2 drafts I think we'd have a chance to have a long-term all star or two.
 
stitches said:
I still wonder if we would have taken Embiid if Philly and Orlando passed on him? We had Favors, Kanter and young Gobert at the time...
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I mean DL has never passed a center in the draft... so if we didn't I would have been furious.
 
If we finish the season 3-27 in our last 30 games (which seems probable at this point) does that change how we feel going into next year? I’m not sure what moves can be made to make us playoff competitive without sacrificing the development of the young guys. Priority #1 is to give continued big minutes to Brice, Taylor, Key, and our new rookies.
 
For me it's about maximizing chance when you draft high. If you look at the last 12 years of draft, at number one to three you got players like Wemby, Banchero,Holmgren, Cuningham, ANT,Zion, JA, Ayton, AD, Tatum, KAT..... of course there are some high draft players who didn't make it but overall, you have better chance to find gold than with Hendricks or Keyonte.

That's why i still don't agree with the last 2 years strategy, which is a mistake for me.
 
The more I see out there about the 2025 draft and the prospects there... the more I am convinced we need a top 5 pick next year. We might be able to thread the needle with Lauri and make that happen still but it means playing all the young guys and moving as many other vets as possible. If we sustained a prolonged injury that also might do it. West should be an absolute bloodbath again.

If you took the last two drafts and mashed it with next years... I think there might be 4-5 guys in the 2025 draft that go after Wemby.
 
I'm not a HS scout guy but I'm going to laugh when Cooper Flagg is just a glorified Ryan Dunn
 
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