SaltyDawg
Well-Known Member
Your link doesn't work, but I posted a link in the first post .
Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
Smartphones to replace computers soon
- Thread starter SaltyDawg
- Start date
Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
Worked for me. Clearly, your HTC Evo isn't up to snuff.
SaltyDawg
Well-Known Member
Right.
And for the record, I know what is going on. But the person who finds this thread in 6 months and only reads the last page probably won't get it. So I clarify, the link in the first post works, the one posted by the wannabe comedian doesn't.
Sent from my HTC Evo using Tapatalk.
LogGrad98
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There are many hurdles to seeing this type of phone completely replacing all PC's and laptops, as you claim.
1. You understand you would have to see docking stations become ubiquitous AND standardized. Good luck with that. Each manufacturer will want theirs to be proprietary. I guess you can just carry your docking station with you, and hope wherever you are going they have extra monitors, but how about the small-business person, who is an increasing share in the laptop market, who needs to tweak the presentation a bit before the plane lands. Ever tried to do that on a smartphone? I have, mostly cannot be done due to functionality of the programs you can run on a phone.
2. You understand the programs shown in the video are anything but "full-blown" versions, with the possible exception of the OS. This is because a smartphone even with dual core just cannot process the way a laptop or pc can. The power just isn't there. No matter how much you like your new Smart Car it still doesn't have the power of my 'Vette. It just doesn't. Not to mention the RAM to run multiple instances of full-blown programs. Viewing and editing/building a spreadsheet are 2 different things entirely. Don't get me started on access and powerpoint.
3. You understand that programs and files require space for storage right? My dad (I use him for an example because he is aging yet uses his computer daily and is anything but tech savvy) has probably 500 gig of multi-media ON HIS LAPTOP. He doesn't want to move it all to something else, or a subset of it, when he can just take the laptop with him. So how are you going to carry around your multi-media (videos, pictures, songs, etc.) without the storage. Let alone storage for full-blown programs. 1000 songs is one thing. 1000 songs, 50 videos, 100 episodes of tv and 1500 pictures is something else entirely. And programs. See that is the problem with throwing "full-blown" around. It takes lots of memory to store full-blown programs. The memory just isn't there.
4. You understand that the "basic" PC user is getting braver and braver right? Adobe announced record sales of Premiere and Photoshop Elements for 2009 even in a down year. The demand for high-end software is going up, not down. It will be a very long time, if ever, that a phone is powerful enough to handle this type of software. My wife even shook off her fear of tech and started using Photoshop recently.
(got tired of numbered lists)
Also, yes smartphones are outgrowing laptops. The funny thing is laptops are still a growing market. Just not as fast. Smartphones are growing fast but why? Is it because every single consumer who buys one is hoping it turns into their new laptop and replaces their PC? Doubtful. Most people I know with a smartphone got it because it is cool and plays apps. They also got great deals and most of them have last-generation phones, sales for which outpace the newest phones. So you are over-inflating the market segment that would be adopting this technology to replace technology they already use (PC or laptop).
See I am not arguing that smartphones are not getting smarter. I am not arguing that they are not getting more powerful, or more popular, or more functional. I am not even arguing about the fact that I am also an early adopter and want one of the new phones the second it comes out. I am arguing that we are a very very long way off from seeing a phone that will replace a PC even for the most casual PC users.
For casual users especially they will not be able to see a need for a high-end computer phone when their neighbor's PC he has outgrown is available to them for free (I know plenty of people who compute this way...and look at the used computer shops). And most really casual PC users I know don't have or want smart phones. See the two kind of go hand-in-hand (not a 1 to 1 ratio but not far off either).
You will see early adopters (of which you are obviously one, as am I typically) but it will take a long time for PC's and laptops to fade and in some segments (business for example, power gamers, video/photo editing buffs,etc.) they may never go away, simply because a larger form-factor lends itself to more power, and software engineers have shown they take full advantage of increases in power and storage.
So I am refuting the title of your thread, that is the argument. No, phones will not replace PC's any time soon. You have done nothing to convince me otherwise.
1. You understand you would have to see docking stations become ubiquitous AND standardized. Good luck with that. Each manufacturer will want theirs to be proprietary. I guess you can just carry your docking station with you, and hope wherever you are going they have extra monitors, but how about the small-business person, who is an increasing share in the laptop market, who needs to tweak the presentation a bit before the plane lands. Ever tried to do that on a smartphone? I have, mostly cannot be done due to functionality of the programs you can run on a phone.
2. You understand the programs shown in the video are anything but "full-blown" versions, with the possible exception of the OS. This is because a smartphone even with dual core just cannot process the way a laptop or pc can. The power just isn't there. No matter how much you like your new Smart Car it still doesn't have the power of my 'Vette. It just doesn't. Not to mention the RAM to run multiple instances of full-blown programs. Viewing and editing/building a spreadsheet are 2 different things entirely. Don't get me started on access and powerpoint.
3. You understand that programs and files require space for storage right? My dad (I use him for an example because he is aging yet uses his computer daily and is anything but tech savvy) has probably 500 gig of multi-media ON HIS LAPTOP. He doesn't want to move it all to something else, or a subset of it, when he can just take the laptop with him. So how are you going to carry around your multi-media (videos, pictures, songs, etc.) without the storage. Let alone storage for full-blown programs. 1000 songs is one thing. 1000 songs, 50 videos, 100 episodes of tv and 1500 pictures is something else entirely. And programs. See that is the problem with throwing "full-blown" around. It takes lots of memory to store full-blown programs. The memory just isn't there.
4. You understand that the "basic" PC user is getting braver and braver right? Adobe announced record sales of Premiere and Photoshop Elements for 2009 even in a down year. The demand for high-end software is going up, not down. It will be a very long time, if ever, that a phone is powerful enough to handle this type of software. My wife even shook off her fear of tech and started using Photoshop recently.
(got tired of numbered lists)
Also, yes smartphones are outgrowing laptops. The funny thing is laptops are still a growing market. Just not as fast. Smartphones are growing fast but why? Is it because every single consumer who buys one is hoping it turns into their new laptop and replaces their PC? Doubtful. Most people I know with a smartphone got it because it is cool and plays apps. They also got great deals and most of them have last-generation phones, sales for which outpace the newest phones. So you are over-inflating the market segment that would be adopting this technology to replace technology they already use (PC or laptop).
See I am not arguing that smartphones are not getting smarter. I am not arguing that they are not getting more powerful, or more popular, or more functional. I am not even arguing about the fact that I am also an early adopter and want one of the new phones the second it comes out. I am arguing that we are a very very long way off from seeing a phone that will replace a PC even for the most casual PC users.
For casual users especially they will not be able to see a need for a high-end computer phone when their neighbor's PC he has outgrown is available to them for free (I know plenty of people who compute this way...and look at the used computer shops). And most really casual PC users I know don't have or want smart phones. See the two kind of go hand-in-hand (not a 1 to 1 ratio but not far off either).
You will see early adopters (of which you are obviously one, as am I typically) but it will take a long time for PC's and laptops to fade and in some segments (business for example, power gamers, video/photo editing buffs,etc.) they may never go away, simply because a larger form-factor lends itself to more power, and software engineers have shown they take full advantage of increases in power and storage.
So I am refuting the title of your thread, that is the argument. No, phones will not replace PC's any time soon. You have done nothing to convince me otherwise.
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
Who said forever? They're trending upward still yet you think in just four more years they'll be obsolete? Yeah, that seems likely. I tell you what, let's put a wager on it. In four years (or five once the research comes out on the previous year), if < x amount of people in the U.S. (or globally) have a laptop, you win. If > x amount have one, I win. Sound fair?
<awaiting "Of course they'll have one but just because they have one doesn't mean they still use it">
SaltyDawg
Well-Known Member
I am trying to figure out if you are being serious or just messing with me...
If you really watched that video and missed this, I'll point out that the docks are standard. They connect to the phone via HDMI and USB, not some proprietary crap. Worst case scenario is in the future you have a different phone and the ports don't line up. In that case you use a small cable to connect the ports on the dock to the ports on your phone. This is no different than the car docks that have been getting wired into cars for several years. Actually, a lot of those use proprietary connectors so it is actually much better on these current docks using USB and HDMI.
Also, you must have missed the laptop dock that turns the phone into a laptop with a laptop keyboard, screen, and track pad.
And yes, the Google Docs in the video is the "full blown" version. You can also run the "full blown" MS Office if you want. The phone may not be as powerful as an enterprise application server, but fortunately cloud computing allows it to do a lot of things that you must not be aware of.
MS Office (yes, the "full blown" version) is online and can be run from a web browser. So all that storage space and a lot of that CPU power that you say it is lacking is suddenly not even needed (especially with 4G data).
And yes, the programs in the video are in fact "full blown" versions, and they are multitasking in multiple windows.
Yes, I know about storage needs. But you can get as many storage cards as you want, and even an external USB hard drive if you want. Storage is not a concern.
There are many photo and video editors on every smartphone platform. Most smartphones come with a photo and video editor, and there are more than I care to count in the Android market right now. Are they as powerful as full blown Adobe CS? Of course not. But you can bet there are some that will get the average user by just fine if they have a phone like that Atrix. And there are developers working on better ones at this very moment. There are also plenty of cloud based solutions as well for photo and video editing, and these will also surely get better with time (although a lot of them are plenty good enough for the average home user right now anyway).
Of course every single consumer who bought a smartphone over the last several years wasn't planning on replacing their laptop with it. Smartphones weren't ready for it yet. But you are kidding yourself if you don't think most of the buyers of AT&T's new flagship smartphone won't be planning on doing just that. And moving forward, all smartphones will have all of those features, all of that power, and even more on both accounts. So if casual users are buying smartphones now (they are) it's a safe bet that they will be buying them in 3 years. And we already know that next year smartphones will be a lot more powerful than the Atrix listed in the first post, and they will be running full Windows 8, with full Windows 8 programs and apps. So it's a pretty safe bet that the casual users buying those smartphones aren't going to turn around and buy a new laptop after getting that new smartphone.
SaltyDawg
Well-Known Member
Of course usage matters, lol. I have a bunch of old laptops and old smartphones that I haven't even turned on in years. I'd be more than happy to bet you that a greater percentage of web traffic is from smartphones in 4 years though. That's easy money.
Look man, let me show you what the experts think about this...
From September of 2009:
https://www.pcworld.com/article/171380/more_smartphones_than_desktop_pcs_by_2011.html
From January of 2010:
https://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-10434760-92.html
From November of 2010:
https://voices.washingtonpost.com/posttech/2010/11/smartphone_sales_to_pass_compu.html
Notice that all of those dates they are predicting are actually sooner than my 2015 prediction.
Yes, people will still own laptops. The things won't have rotted away by then so plenty of people will have them laying around. But they will hardly get any use, and most average users won't be buying them anymore.
Tell me this- if you had that phone in the first post would you be buying a laptop in the near future? If so, why?
And if you had the next version of that phone (with the docks), with a quad core processor and 2 gigs of RAM, and was running full Windows 8, would you be buying a laptop anytime soon? If so, why?
And phones like the one I just described will be for sale next year. You think 3 years later (when those phones are old and dirt cheap, replaced by way better phones) average users will still be buying laptops? If so, why?
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
The Atrix 4G?
SaltyDawg
Well-Known Member
So VINYLONE, assuming your feminine hormones are under control now, care to explain yourself? My original statement was "And there were tons of laptops announced at CES, right? Oh wait..." You posted links to 4 or 5 that were announced, over the course of about a week when dozens, if not hundreds of smartphones and tablets were announced. Then you acted like a menstruating woman in one of the more epic meltdowns this board has ever seen.
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
<grabs popcorn>
SaltyDawg
Well-Known Member
Yeah, the Atrix 4G is good enough to replace a laptop right now. I can't see any reason an average user would buy a laptop after buying that Atrix 4G.
Even so, the smartphones of next year will be twice as powerful as the Atrix 4G, and will be running full Windows 8, with the same versions of the programs the laptops run. So I really can't see why anyone would buy a laptop after buying one of those. And there will still be a full 2 years for my prediction to come true, with smartphones getting more powerful every year.