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Team Preview 2013/2014

B

BTP

Well-Known Member
*UPDATED @8/25 - Overhauling my Milwaukee part is finally done and so is the Central Division *

This is my thread section, where I'll link my team previews that I'll create over the course of the summer basketball drought. Or winter in case you live on the southern half of the globe.
I'll feature the franchise cap situation and possible developments in that area. After the financial overview I'll mix statistical facts on selected individual players' with my personal "eye test".
I'll close each team's section with an outlook on the team's on court success short and long term.


Western Conference

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets
Minnesota Timberwolves
Portland TrailBlazers
Oklahoma City Thunder
Utah Jazz

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks
Houston Rockets
Memphis Grizzlies
New Orleans Pelicans
San Antonio Spurs

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles Lakers
Phoenix Suns
Sacramento Kings


Eastern Conference

Central Division

Chicago Bulls
Cleveland Cavaliers
Detroit Pistons
Indiana Pacers
Milwaukee Bucks

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics
Brooklyn Nets
New York Knicks
Philadelphia 76ers
Toronto Raptors

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks
Charlotte Bobcats/Hornets
Miami Heat
Orlando Magic
Washington Wizards



2014 Free Agents:
I'll add at a later time and date how much cash the players leave in their current team's bank in case they make use of their right to terminate their contracts or in case they don't make use of their player options. 2015 free agents will also be included in the future.

Point Guard:

Unrestricted(UFA):
Kyle Lowry
Jerryd Bayless
Kirk Hinrich
Mario Chalmers
Steve Blake
Jordan Farmar
Toney Douglas
Luke Ridnour
Ramon Sessions
Devin Harris
Aaron Brooks
DJ Augustin
Shaun Livingston
Earl Watson
Derek Fisher
Patty Mills

Restricted(RFA):
Greivis Vasquez
Eric Bledsoe
Isaiah Thomas
Avery Bradley
Brian Roberts
Tyshawn Taylor
Josh Akognon
Maalik Wayns

Early Termination Option(ETO)/Player Option(PO):
Darren Collison $2M
Eric Maynor $2.1M

Team Option(TO):
Tony Parker $3.5M/12.5 guaranteed
Jameer Nelson $4M/8 guaranteed
Andre Miller $2M/4.6 guaranteed
Chauncey Billups $2.5M

Shooting Guard:

UFA:
Kobe Bryant
Vince Carter
Ray Allen
Rodney Stuckey
Ben Gordon
Brandon Rush
Shannon Brown
Thabo Sefolosha
Lance Stephenson
Wesley Johnson
Jodie Meeks
Garrett Temple

RFA:
Jordan Crawford
Kent Bazemore
E'Twaun Moore
Malcolm Lee
Shelvin Mack
Nando DeColo
Terrel Harris
Justin Holiday

ETO/PO:
Dwyane Wade $20.1M
Anthony Morrow $1.15M
Nick Young $1.2M
Jason Richardson $6.6M

TO:
Jamal Crawford $1.5M/5.5 for each of the next 2 seasons guaranteed
Keith Bogans x(unknown)/$5.3M
Willie Green 0/$1.6M

Small Forward:

UFA:
Luol Deng
Danny Granger
Caron Butler
Shawn Marion
Shane Battier
Trevor Ariza
Al-Farouq Aminu
Marvin Williams
Hedo Turkoglu
CJ Miles
James Jones
Richard Jefferson

RFA:
Paul George
Gordon Hayward
Evan Turner
Quincy Pondexter
PJ Tucker
DeAndre Liggins
Darius Miller
Tornike Shengelia

ETO/PO:
LeBron James $20.6M
Carmelo Anthony $23.3M
Rudy Gay $19.3M
Andrej Kirilenko $3.3M
Metta World Peace $1.6M
Alan Anderson $1.0M

TO:
Alonzo Gee 0/$3.0M
Omri Casspi x/$1.0M
John Salmons $1.0M/7
Michael Beasley 0/$6.25M

Power Forward:

UFA:
Dirk Nowitzki
Pau Gasol
Kris Humphries
Boris Diaw
Jordan Hill
Rashard Lewis
Elton Brand
Kenyon Martin
Charlie Villanueva
Matt Bonner
Josh McRoberts
Jeff Adrian
Dante Cunningham

RFA:
Greg Monroe
Derrick Favors
Patrick Patterson
Ed Davis
Greg Smith
Lavoy Allen
Travis Booker
Mike Scott
Jarvis Varnardo

ETO/PO:
Chris Bosh $20.6M
Zach Randolph $17.0M
Amare Stoudemire $23.4M
Andrea Bargnani $11.5M
Channing Frye $6.8M
Udonis Haslam $4.6M
Chris Andersen $1.45M
Jonas Jerebko $4.5M
Darrell Arthur $3.5M
Byron Mullens $1.0M

TO:
Amir Johnson $5.0M/7
Earl Clark x/$4.25M
Tyler Hansbrough x/$3.3M
Jason Maxiell x/$2.5M

Center:

UFA:
Andrew Bogut
Emeka Okafor
Spencer Hawes
Marcin Gortat
Chris Kaman
Jason Smith
Greg Stiemsma
Ryan Hollins
Jermaine O'Neal
Andris Biedrins
Kwame Brown
Aaron Gray
Chris Johnson
Nazr Mohammad

RFA:
DeMarcus Cousins
Larry Sanders
Kevin Seraphin
Bernard James
Aron Baynes
Viacheslav Kravtsov

ETO/PO:
Tim Duncan $10.3M
Andray Blatche $1.4M
Joel Anthony $3.8M
Greg Oden $1.1M

TO:
Andrew Bynum 0/$12.0M
Anderson Varejao $4.0M/9.7
Samuel Dalembert x/$3.8M
Kostas Koufos x/$3.0M


Notable 2015 Free Agents:
LaMarcus Aldridge(U)
Omer Asik(U)
Carlos Boozer(U)
Marc Gasol(U)
Monta Ellis(PO)
Rudy Gay(U)
Danny Green(U)
Gerald Henderson(ETO)
LeBron James(ETO)
DeAndre Jordan(U)
Brook Lopez(PO)
Kevin Love(PO)
Tony Parker(U)
Zach Randolph(U)
Luis Scola(U)
JR Smith(PO)
Amare Stoudemire(U)
Andrea Bargnani(U)
Goran Dragic(PO)
Tim Duncan(U)
Kevin Garnett(U)
Jeff Green(PO)
Eric Gordon(PO)
Roy Hibbert(PO)
Chris Bosh(PO)
Al Jefferson(PO)
Wes Matthews(U)
Manu Ginobili(U)
Anderson Varejao(U)
David West(U(
Dwyane Wade(PO)

Jimmy Butler(R)
Alec Burks(R)
Kenneth Faried(R)
Tobias Harris(R)
Kyrie Irving(R)
Enes Kanter(R)
Kawhi Leonard(R)
Brandon Knight(R)
Ricky Rubio(R)
Klay Thompson(R)
Tristan Thompson(R)
Nikola Vucevic(R)
Derrick Williams(R)
 
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Brooklyn

My first piece will focus on a team that looks like a finished product to start the season at least. And they're the top spender in the league:
The Brooklyn Nets!

Cap situation and management:
The Nets are deep in the books, with a salary above $100M and an extra $80M in taxes. But Prokhorov's strategy reminds of the early days of Mark Cuban.
He's just doing it in XXL.
Their payroll leaves little to no flexibility for the upcoming years. That's mainly because they've accumulated a load of bad contracts given out by other franchises and loading off equally bad ones they gave out last summer and shipping away all the available mid-tier talent in the process.
Joe Johnson is owed $69.5M over the next 3 years as their biggest immovable object.
They view DWill as their franchise player and no matter how many coaches he's burning I don't expect that to change. He's got an ETO in 2016 though when he's turning 32 and unless a rapid decline or a major injury happens, I expect him to exercise it in order to cash in on the last big contract of his career.
Their 3rd long time contract is Brook Lopez, a 7 footer with a versatile and efficient game on the offensive end. He's worth every single dollar(which is rare for Brooklyn's top earners). He'll hit free agency in 2015 to cash in on a bigger contract as a 7 year veteran eligible for 30% of the cap.
Other than that their roster is filled with the expiring Paul Pierce, the 2 years left at $24.5M for Garnett and a collection of low price free agents hoping to win a ring and mediocre talents bound to the rookie scale.
Their long term success with this group will depend a lot on their ability to add the right kids on rookie deals outperforming their contracts and ability to exceed their salary cap constantly after Garnett and Pierce retire, who are big at luring aging veteran minimum free agents into town.
Though draft success seems unlikely: They do not own a 2014 pick. In 2015 they have a 1st rounder after a potential swap with the Hawks, their own and a 2nd rounder from Utah. The following year they have a 2nd round pick which is the higher of theirs and the Clippers'.
The Celtics have the right to swap 1st rounders in 2017, and traded for the Nets' 2018 first rounder. The Hawks have rights to the 2017 2nd round pick of the Nets'. This should give you a clear picture of the Nets' future draft impact and their young players aren't exactly in high demand right now.
In summary: They have no cap flexibility at least until 2015 and little to no options to add through the draft. If Lopez leaves they can offer max to add a restricted player, if he doesn't they can offer another max in 2016 when they have both Williams and Lopez earning close to or more than $20M a year.
The risk of losing Lopez stems from signing Williams for 5 years as their designated franchise player and can offer Lopez only 4 years in 2015.

Now let's look at their roster pieces:
The biggest problem individually is Joe Johnson. He's cashing in big time the next 3 years, while his game is already declining.
Joe's strength is scoring the ball. Defensively he was never any good and last years defensive rating of 110.2 is only .9 better than his career average(Remind that a higher defensive rating indicates less success). His career best in this category is 104.4 and dates back to his rookie season just to put into context how bad he is defensively. On offense it's similar with a 108.5, which is .8 above career avg.
The reason I call him declining are indicators I derive from advanced statistics and combine them with common sense.
His rebounding percentage is at an abysmal low 4.88% way below his 6.45% career avg. and has started to drop back in Atlanta. The Nets in addition aren't exactly good at rebounding, at least not when you consider their playoff berth.
Another worrysome stat is that he isn't really effective offensively any longer. While many players get better at going to the charity stripe at a higher age, it's the opposite for Joe. His 2.2 FTA/game mark his lowest number since he stopped playing off the ball next to Steve Nash in Phoenix.
A really important stat for players adjusting from being the main focus of opponents defensive schemes to being 2nd or 3rd options on a team is that you expect them to score more efficiently. Since he no longer commands as many double teams it's only logical to see his assist percentage fall.
But Joe can't convert that into a better effective field goal percentage or more free throws.
After all the hate I have to give him props for taking care of the ball. He does turn it over rarely at below 10% of his possessions.
Now I've gotten to the point where I'll spit out my main critic on Joe: He sucks in postseason. Easy as it is...
Since joining the Hawks he's never had a positive result when subtracting his defensive rating from the offensive! It varies between -7.7 and -18 !
His PERs are taking major hits once postseason arrives too. His consistent above average 3 point shooting, which is one of his best assets in regular season disappears in all but one of the last 5 playoffs, and the year he shot good from range he took less attempts...
Joe's impact in the upcoming season will primarily depend on his ability to utilize his possessions better than he did in the past. He's never been a max player on offense while totally ignoring his devastatingly bad defense, but if he can finally perform in the postseason(like he did in 2005 and 2008) and do an efficient job on the offensive end with limited looks he can at least be worth between 10 and 12 millions. This would help the Nets a lot.

Now let's take a look at their young 25 year old center Brook Lopez, who's entering his prime.
Entering his sixth year, the Nets will and should rely on him even more! But let's start with his major weaknesses: There's two of them.
1) Rebounding. He grabs 9.6% of the offensive rebounds and 16.5% on the defensive end over the course of his career. That's not exactly what you expect your big guy to do! Dwight Howard's numbers on both ends of the floor in that category are 11.9% and 29.1%. So it's really his defensive rebounding. Since I think that Brook is probably one of the smarter players on the planet I guess it's either quickness, strength or attitude. I don't think it's lack of anticipation where the ball will land, in which case he would be way worse at cleaning the offensive glass. If he starts to work on that part of the game he'll continue to be max after this contract expires.
2) Assists. A major asset which nearly all of today's superstars possess is the ability to involve teammates. Brook's assist number have even dropped while emerging as a better offensive player. If he starts passing the ball to open teammates it'll work wonders on the Net's spacing. He dished out .9 assists last season. Compare that to his 52% FG% and 57% eFG% which is already a strong value he can really make a difference for the Nets.
Now let's take a quick look at what Brook's already good at:
He's got soft hands, allowing him to step out to 15 foot to nail open shots and free throws(76%).
In the low post he presents himself very polished with a variety of moves. He can go over either shoulder. The only negative here is that he rarely uses his left hand to finish.
He can face up, is quick off the dribble with either hand and finishes strong.
Lopez's got beautiful footwork to create space and make a smart move depending on what the defense allows.
Add to that an improved timing on blocks(Dwight has only twice scored a higher BLK% compared to Lopez last year) and he also takes good care of the basketball averaging less than 2 TO/game with a TO% below 10.
When you see a steadily improving defensive rating you have a pretty good basketball player. Not to forget he was Brooklyn's lone bright spot in their 1st round exit against the Bulls last season.

Now it's time to take a look at the primadonna named Deron by his parents. I'll make this one quick as each and everyone of you basically knows 10 times more than I do about him. And the stats suggest: same old same old! He's basically exactly doing what he did in Utah. The most significant statistical deviations last season were that he takes better care of the ball,his TO% is 2% lower compared to his career average and doesn't hand out direct assists as often anymore(AST% is 5 points below the career average). But basically he's what he's been each and every year. Good offensively, bad defensively, driving coaches nuts.

Mirza Teletovic is a guy few know a lot about. He's a 27 year old European going into his 2nd season. Last season he didn't have a big role on a contending team and the few times he actually played he didn't exactly raise eyebrows. He's a forward who's best at shooting from deep.
While his per36 stats of 13.6 pts and 6.9 rebs on 34% from three while averaging 1.4 TO are definately not impressive you have to remember he's entering his prime and he played his first overseas season. But this season there's not excuses. The Nets are deeper than last year, they have proven winner on their squad now and he must start delivering. If I look 1 more year back when he was having a killer year in Spain on a top team where he averaged 17 points, 6.2 rebounds, 37% from deep and 50% on 2 pointers in 32 min, then he's got to step it up now. If Kidd trusts him and he has his breakthrough season, watch out!

Andray Blatche is the last big thing I'll examine in this section. His phenomenal rebirth last season really turned heads everywhere in the league. If he repeats to be a hard and efficient worker and continues to be a good locker room influence expect him to sign elsewhere for the full MLE next year. He led the Nets' bench unit last year offensively. He had career bests in effective field goal percentage(.514), total rebounding percentage(15.8) and Defensive Rating(101.2).
His PER was 22.34 while enjoying a 26% usage while being on the court. He was in both regular and postseason one of the bright spots. I'm very surprised he didn't get the right offers already this summer. But maybe he really believes he can win with the Nets before moving on to cash in a bigger contract. This will be a very exciting player to follow!
Oh and I forgot, he's only 27 years old.

Now I'll finish this entry with my opinion on the franchise's future.
What can we expect from the Nets next year? Well it's safe to say that they'll have to try very hard to look even worse than in their previous campaign.
They added defense(Garnett, Kirilenko) and veteran leadership(Garnett, Terry, Pierce). This definately helps them a lot.
Their depth chart is the following:

PG Williams/Livingston/Taylor
SG Johnson/Terry/Anderson
SF Pierce/Kirilenko
PF Garnett/Evans/Teletovic/Shengelia
C Lopez/Blatche/Plumlee

Their frontcourt has especially improved a lot defensively! But their backcourt hasn't got much more to offer other than shooting power. A big question is if their inside player can compensate for that? Williams, Johnson and Terry aren't exactly good defenders.
The biggest questionmarks on their team are obviously Pierce and Garnett. Both are predestined to decline, but Garnett hasn't really yet. His statistics don't include major dropoffs.
Pierce's advanced stats make it more obvious. In the 2 last years he's switched his game, increasing his AST% by nearly 10% and he's taking more offensive possessions than before. On the other hand 2 years ago his Offensive rating dropped by 10 points. His stats right now look more like the ones he produced pre Garnett/Allen/Rondo. But how long can he keep the level to impact the game positively?
Their sparkplugs who decide how well this season ends if everyone stays healthy will be Johnson and Terry. I expect neither of both to turn the tides but if they can the Nets have a shot to challenge the Heat! Terry hasn't really impacted the game positively since he won with the Mavs! Who can blame him? It's tough to maintain that kind of level after fulfilling your biggest goal in your career. The Nets need him to get his hunger back and use his incredible confidence to make a difference in crunchtime. I seriously doubt he can do that! But we'll see.
Johnson has now a series of lackluster campaigns behind him and if he couldn't use the lack of success as motivation in the past, can he now? He had an awesome change of scenery last summer and hasn't really done anything with it. So why now? Can Garnett's and Pierce's arrival set back the clock for Johnson to play like he did with the Suns? I don't think so, but everyone is obviously entitled to his own opinion. So feel free to argue against me!
Right now I see the Nets 4th in the East mainly because I simply like the Bulls and Pacers defensive potential and coaching staff more.
Kidd is a major concern, with absolutely no coaching experience. But if he's legit or his assistants make up for his lack of experience they have a shot to reach the finals in postseason. But only if every piece of the puzzle fits! And there are simply too many unlikely events that have to occur to convince me that they can pull off a successful postseason campaign. But when the stars align, it's possible that the HEAT have to take a lot of heat next summer.
 
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Detroit Pistons

So I'm back guys, after lacking time and motivation to research thoroughly the past few days.
And now I identified the Pistons as a mostly finished product heading into the next season. Please give me a little bit of feedback what focal points I should write more about or from a different angle? Additional features?

Like in my debut piece I'll start with the Pistons' Front Office:
Right now, they're sitting at $60M with 13 players under contract and do not own any exceptions other than the room exception to ink new players. But they could get active when the trade deadline nears. Stuckey and Villanueva are both owed $8.5M this season and will expire then. So a franchise looking to shed salary in order to avoid the tax(repeat offender tax) or create additional capspace for FA would most probably approach the Pistons.
Next summer they'll have ample capspace and Monroe hits restricted free agency. Their guaranteed contracts are worth $30.85M. Add to that the $2.57M teamoption on Drummonds rookie contract and the $4.5M player option owed to Jerebko and you're sitting at $37.91M. The caphold of him is listed at $8M right now, but it may end up as high as $10M. At that point the only thing I haven't included is the $2.5M team option on Billups. This leaves them between $12M and $8M in cap space depending on picking up the Option on Billups and caphit on Monroe, whose starting salary is likely to exceed $10M(his worst case caphit).
Looking at next year's free agency you can find a drought of unrestricted players on positions 1 to 3 in their cap range. Best available unrestricted option is Danny Granger who doesn't seem like a natural fit in their offense, where they already have enough (bad) iso players not named Monroe. He's too big and slow to defend SG for extended periods and will force Smith to play more PF which will result in lowered front court depth when you really only have 3 inside player logging more than 90% of available minutes there.
The quality and quantity of restricted players with respect to their available payroll is significantly higher though.
BPA are Hayward, Vasquez and Bledsoe.
Even if the Jazz land a high profile wing player(Wiggins, Parker, Young) and Detroit offers $2M/yr above statistical value they'll probably match anything on Hayward as he's coming off the books when their 2014 draftee hits FA and they have tons of capspace available.
Vasquez and Bledsoe would be options in case they'll regret trading for Jennings at the end of next season.
This doesn't look as promising so my personal guess is they'll shop their expirings more aggressive at the deadline. New York might be a good partner, as they'll try to unload Stoudemire, who could play a reduced, yet efficient role in Detroit.
He'd have to be paired with Iman Shumpert in exchange for the $17M of Villanueva and Stuckey plus Jonas Jerebko. This would plug a big hole for Detroit, while not ruining their financial flexibility for 2015, when they can again try to score talent starting at $15M.
In case they don't pull off major moves I'd expect them to go for 3 point shooter next summer, which include Vince Carter, Jerryd Bayless or Ben Gordon. OK, cancel out Gordon, that's not gonna happen even if they were a good fit at a reasonable price :cool:
Finishing off this section is a reminder that Joe Dumars is being pressured by ownership after questionable decisions in the past. He got assistance of the Zen master to hire a new coach this offseason. They went for Mo Cheeks in that role. They are finished with rebuilding and want to crack into the playoffs this season. They basically had no choice anyways as their next draftpick is owned by the Bobcats(top8 protected in 2014, #1 protected in 2015, unprotected in 2016). Looking at 2014 free agency and taking into consideration that their current roster would have had a hard time tanking into the bottom 8 to secure a draftpick it's clear why they went for Smove and Jennings instead of waiting even more years to add through FA.

Who are this year's Pistons?
John Hollinger's metrics suggest I start with Andre Drummond.
Greg Monroe[/COLOR]. He's entering his 4th year. He started really, really strong his rookie season, but his TOV% and shooting percentages took hits the following seasons. Right now he's shooting 48% from the field and giving away a troublesome 16% of his possessions. He has to turn around these stats in order to cash in a $50-55M extension he is projected to get right now. His defense has improved every year showcased by his defensive rating of 102 2 years ago and 105 on one of the worst defensive teams last season. He also improved as a passer, as 18% of his possessions end with an assist - he's from Georgetown, so that's not overly surprising.
For Monroe a super important season individually starts in October. With no clear first option on the team's roster he has the opportunity to turn his inefficient last seasons around in an even bigger role. If he can do that the Pistons are my surefire 6th seed in the east.

Their high profile addition of the summer is Josh Smith. Having played all in Atlanta all his career, he didn't fit their rejuvenation and went out to seek greener pastures. And with green, I mean $$$$. Well he didn't get exactly what he wanted, but he won't go bankrupt like the city he plays for after securing a $54M contract. Smove isn't a smart baller, and Detroit's lack of good iso player doesn't only ring my alarm bell. I'll just cut all the ******** about him, as he's a entering his 10th season. His isolations are atrocious and hurt his team. Last season his ORtg was at 97. Yeah that's not a typo. While he's a decent passer with 21% assist ratio, his 14.5% turnover ratio doesn't suggest he's playing within himself often. He's good in transition and when cleaning up misses from teammates. But everything that involves a jumpshot is a low% look for him. He's a career 65% freethrow shooter and last year's 51% can definately compete with Dwight on most nights. If his coach can finally take the ball out of his hands, and let the offense come to him, not the other way around he can maybe play more efficient on this end of the floor.
On the other end though he's kinda good. He grabbed 21% of all misses on the defensive end last season and blocked 4% of the shots. His athleticism that's expected to start declining soon though, really helped him stand out here. Defensive Ratings of 101 and 96 in the 2 previous seasons don't hurt either when applying for a job.
If he's worth his contract will be determined in playoff time though. That's where he has really sucked historically. His Offensive Ratings in the last 3 postseasons were 93, 89 and 92. Yeah...And while he limited turnovers in these runs, he simply shot the ball really bad. True Shooting below .5 - enough said!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnHndbNPYi0
Their last big chip is probably their most crucial one. Brandon Jennings plays point guard, the most important position in the game. He's getting a fresh start in Detroit, but he better doesn't take it easy. He's probably still upset he didn't get as much money as he perceived to be worth, but that doesn't matter now. The next contract is always the most important contract. Oh wait, yeah that isn't a quote.
What could help Jennings is that he's kind of good off the Pick and Roll. And screens is what the Pistons' offense won't be lacking with a starting lineup featuring Drummond, Monroe and Smith. So if his new coach can get him to play smarter and develops a system that allows him to do so, he may improve more than quite a bit. His bad defense will be limited when you have guys guarding the basket! So he has to take away the opponent's ball handler's shot, which he never did successfully in the past. Can he change that and start running over screens?
I think offensively we'll see him quite a bit off the ball at times. When he and Billups are on the floor at the same time I expect them to switch roles on offense and defense. That should allow him to throw more of his good 3s that don't come off the dribble but in control. The other shots he should take to play efficient are passes that Monroe throws him out of the post. If he can limit his play to Catch and Shoot 3 pointer, floater and passes on the drive, the public opinion on his offense may improve a lot - which isn't actually that hard considering how badly people talk about him this summer.
Adding a little bit of weight wouldn't hurt either in order to make his signature move the step back more efficient.
But his success will depend on his BBIQ and guidance of his coaches to make him play smart. That's what he needs to do.


Now let's merge what I said into an outlook:
The Pistons want obviously to clog the paint, run transition style basketball and work with screens. Right now they lack a franchise player, and I doubt that Drummond or Monroe can develop into that. They are both very good player, but Monroe is a classic 2nd option and Drummond more of a defensive anchor who simply uses athleticism to score. But the Pistons won w/o a franchise player in 2004 and they probably believe that their system still works! Their GM at least is the same person. If it doesn't they'll at least have shots to make it to the 2nd round the next few years and play competitive basketball. Their owner is pretty new and that will be his learning experience to be more patient to build contender, unless they make major unforeseeable improvements. Maybe it's also not their plan and they abort their prolonged rebuild from a business standpoint.
Taking a look at their depth chart shows what they really got:

The minute-distribution depends on where they'll play on the defensive end - Billups will run the offense as PG when he's defending SG. It's an early estimate that can change quickly depending on how certain individuals perform. Stuckey and CharlieV will only see playing time in case they're helping the team win. Otherwise they're out of the rotation. If KCP doesn't live up to what he has shown in summer league he'll have a smaller role as well with Singler playing more SG.

PG: Brandon Jennings(30), Chauncey Billups(6), Will Bynum(12)
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope(18), Rodney Stuckey(18), Chauncey Billups(12)
SF: Josh Smith(24), Kyle Singler(16), Luigi Datome(8)
PF: Greg Monroe(15), Jonas Jerebko(10), Josh Smith(8), Charlie Villanueva(15), Tony Mitchell(D-League)
C: Andre Drummond(30), Greg Monroe(18)

They basically paired athleticism(Drummond, Mitchell, Smith, Monroe, Stuckey, KCP) with shooting (Jennings, KCP, Singler, Datome(if his game translates) and Villanueva). All their PGs can run the PnR and that's what's going to happen. If the lobpass is no option it's either a kickout pass or they reset and give the ball to Monroe to create from the low block. Pretty basic plays, but will they work?
I expect the Pistons to finish between 6th and 8th this season but w/o a chance to advance in the playoffs, as the top 4 east seeds are way too strong to suffer an upset under normal circumstances.
How good they'll be will depend a lot on their new additions Jennings, Smove and KCP. If they can contribute their strengthes and avoid hurting the team with their weaknesses they'll be fine. Coaching is a questionmark too obviously.
 
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Alright boys and girls, today I decided to create a preview on the Cavs! I've been covering only East teams right now but next week I'll Go West. But not in the Pet Shop Boys kind of way...

So let's take a look at the Cavs books:
Let's start with the following statement. The Cavs are probably one of the most fun teams to cover in this section. You ask why? Their management has worked kind of strong in regard of what the future holds. Capspace, a clear cut superstar with huge marketability and tons of promising draft picks. Yeah and their owner is not too shabby either if he's not butthurt about losing the MVP. He's 6th overall in paying luxury tax. The only small market team that has paid more are the TrailBlazers.
So you've got a young nucleus paired with ample cap space that's available at the end of each season for a low risk high reward investment named Andrew Bynum. Their "Core4" consisting of Irving, Waiters, Thompson and Bennett project to be long term starter in the league. With their growth they'll gain momentum on the free agent market as well. But basically they'll wait until LeBron makes his next move. That's when they attack big.
With all the rookie contracts their guaranteed money is at $43.3M. Now consider that only $4.0M of Varejao's $9.7M are guaranteed and you have a piece you can easily move in case LeBron's available. Such a measure would also include cutting the nonguaranteed portion of Andrew Bynum's, Earl Clark's and Alonzo Gee's contracts. If the more likely case of LeBron seeking a 2015 extension is reality I don't see them changing much in the upcoming offseason. They will still be a moderate $7M away from the tax limit and could add more than 1 big FA in 2015 while paying Kyrie max too.
You think their future looks bright from this? Hold your breath, I haven't even started. They have 3 future first round picks from other teams and another two 2014 second rounder from Orlando and Memphis.
The first rounder from Sacramento is top12 protected in 2014 and top10 through 2017, at which point it's converted into a 2nd rounder top55 protected in the same year.
A Miami 1st round pick that starts in 2015 and is top10 protected in that year and the following, but unprotected in 2017. So basically Cavs fans are secretly hoping that Wade's health won't allow him to dominate any longer and Bosh loses his game and confidence completely so LeBron start looking for new opportunities.
The 3rd future draft pick once belonged to Memphis and is top5 + 15-30 protected in 2015 and 2016. After that it becomes top5 protected through 2018 and unprotected in 2019.
That's a lot of trade chips and restock/retool opportunities. And once the Heat and Memphis championship window closes they'll have to do a rebuild from ground zero the way it looks right now as they don't keep draftpicks and don't care for youth.
Summing up the aforementioned:
In case LeBron hits 2014 free agency they'll drop whatever they can and make a run on him. If they miss out they still have Bynum and/or Varejao if they want to keep them and can opt to make a run on Danny Granger or Luol Deng to add on SF. Minor Center that are worth around MLE are available too, in case neither Varejao and Bynum can stay healthy.
If LeBron stays another year before getting another contract I totally expect the Cavs to be patient as well.
So after either of these 2 years they'll attack homecourt advantage again.


Next stop: ROSTER ANALYSIS
I'm expected to start this one with Kyrie Irving I guess, but I gotta disappoint you there's not much to see in the stats.
His scoring is versatile, efficient. Simply a thing of beauty. There's really no weakness in his scoring categories. He probably is the best scoring guard in the league long term. Simply because he can do everything amazingly well. Shooting the ball, finishing at the rim, quickness is off the charts, can change speed at will, awesome handle.
His 2 weaknesses, which I really wouldn't call weaknesses considering he's just 21 years old, can and will probably improve if you look at the numbers of other elite point guards, who struggled defensively and at assisting teammates in their first couple years.
The biggest thing for him is probably staying healthy. He was injured most of his college year and missed 38 games in his first two NBA seasons.

The next one to cover is Dion Waiters. With only one year under his belt he was kind of a surprise early pick in last draft similar to Bennett this year. You can basically read all you need to know about Waiters at [url]https://www.fearthesword.com/2013/6/13/4417764/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-dion-waiters-season-in-review[/URL]. But let me comprehend what they found out about him:
He started the season in a slump, converting only 43% of his shots at the rim and 43.6% Trueshooting. But in the 2nd half he turned his offense around, converted 68% of his shots at the rim, went to the free throw line at a higher clip, and raised his TS% to 52.5. The best thing maybe is his 41.6% 3pt pct when spotting up. Add to that the ability to create his own shot as he ranked in the upper quarter when it comes to efficiency from isolations.
This season though is not about having green light to shoot whenever he wants. The Cavs want to attack the playoff ranks and doing so will require him to take smarter shots. And it's going to be up to Mike Brown to implement an offense that helps Waiters to play off the ball. Irving and Jack though will have to prove they're willing passers and find him when he's open.
Now let's turn the attention to where Waiters really struggled. This may not be surprising for all the college experts on this forum. But man-man defense was really bad from the former Syracuse star. He struggled running over screens and contesting shots properly resulting in opponents having a 48.5% when spotting up against Waiters and their offensive efficiency of 1.26 PPP is really bad. Mike Brown though is known for being one of the better defensive coaches. If he addressed that over the summer like he's supposed to do watching film and simply working on man-man defense he might improve. He'll at least have a hard time to get even worse at this point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxPnMTJLfi4
Continuing the individual the examination I'll take a closer look at Tristan Thompson. The Canadian is a undersized PF, who compensates with athleticism and freakishly long arms. He's probably the only Cavalier who's known for playing defense right now.
His Rebounding is at a very good level, while the offensive boards at a 13.8% ratio are truly elite. 22.1% on the defensive end are pretty high too. At the moment his offensive game is still a work in progress. He's showing flashes of a low range floater and a hook, but he isn't exactly comfortable with either. The majority of his attempts are off rebounds, rolling to the basket and easy converts when his teammates were double teamed.
While his defense is steadily progressing, his offense is still nothing to rave about and hard to predict where it'll end. He's showing that he works on it but until he fixes his free throw shooting(61% after 48% in his rookie season) his ballhandling abilities and postup won't really matter too much.
It's also noteworthy that he doesn't turn over the ball too often, 11.7% was his TO ratio last season. But his 49% FG% and 51.6% TS% are not where they are supposed to be. A PER of 16.1 also suggests that he deserves to be a fringe starter right now.
It'll be interesting what skills he can show this fall. If he doesn't develop further he'll be perceived as a bust pretty soon compared to his draft position.
I like his defense, but in general I don't like starting PFs in the league who can't shoot the ball. There's basically no Center who does it and a non shooting front court often causes problems at spacing. But if there's a team where you can forfeit on spacing by front court players it's going to be Cleveland. Irving, Waiters and Karasev are player who'll probably make it rain from the outside.

The last player to cover from their roster is their new addition Jarrett Jack
He's really made a huge step in the last 2 years. Entering his prime he's turned into a fringe starting calibre point guard for the most part because of showing improved willingness to share the ball. He posted assist ratios of 34% in 11/12 and 30% in 12/13 compared to his 25% career average. His PER of 17.9(11/12) and 15.9(last season) agree with me. He hasn't changed substantially though. He's still a shoot first combo guard, who can play off the ball too due to his good shooting. He isn't inefficient overall when looking to score, posting a TS% of 54% this season and a 3pt pct of 40%. Jarretts weaknesses are of a different nature. He's relatively turnover prone, losing 14% of his possessions at a low usage rate of 20%. Add to that his weak defense and streakiness on offense. If his shot is off he can really hurt his team.
A video on youtube called "A Jack of all trades" really describes him the best. He's probably overall the best backup PG in the league. His leadership, clutchness, veteran presence in Cleveland's backcourt is what will really help them make the next step in their development towards becoming a playoffteam.


The last section is focused on predicting the upcoming season and beyond - a look into the crystal ball:
I've been very positive about their future after 2014 when their young guys will really come together and make the next step and I don't think I'm reaching when I say that they have all the pieces to turn their franchise into a perennial contender for years to come. If I was a Cavs fan I'd be very excited to watch this group grow around Irving and eventually LeBron in the future.
Right now I'd say the Cavs can finish anywhere between 7th and 10th in the East. It'll depend on ONE factor: Health...
Their most important players aren't exactly known for staying healthy for a whole season.
Irving, Bynum and Varejao are extremly vulnerable. If one of them is out of shape for a injury or suffers a major one midway through the season they'll exit the playoff window very fast. And my bet is that at least one is going down. So my best guess is they'll finish 9th with a negative record and 2 games out of the playoffs.

Lineup:
PG: Kyrie Irving, Jarrett Jack
SG: Dion Waiters, C.J. Miles
SF: Alonzo Gee, Earl Clark, Sergej Karasev, Carrick Felix - The starter at SF is wide open and will probably be decided in preseason.
PF: Tristan Thompson, Anthony Bennett
C: Andrew Bynum, Anderson Varejao, Tyler Zeller

The addition of coach Mike Brown will probably push each and everyone to improve on the defensive end. That's what he's done everywhere but he's not known for teaching versatile modern offensive sets. Hopefully he can find an assistant coach who can compensate for that.
It's not that his style to overutilize isolations will hurt them short term as they already have successful players for that in Irving, Bynum, Jack, Waiters and Bennett, but long term it'll hurt their teamplay. So an offensive scheme based around penetration and forcing double teams would be most beneficial going foward for the Cavs. Such a system would also allow LeBron to play up to his strengths in case of an homecoming right away and also force Irving to improve his passing skills, court vision and trust his teammates more to knock down open shots. All attributes that most Finals MVPs possess.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have a lot of work to do, but if they do it right, we'll see them soon again deep in the playoffs.
 
I'm doing my own commentary on each team. I've gotten 23 done so far. Each of mine is like a 10th the size of one of yours though. Looks like a lot of work.

Keep it up.
 
Chicago Bulls

Good evening ladies and gents.
Today it's time for one of my fav teams - the Bulls from Chitown.

Not that it's not getting dull, but I think spying on the Front Office is the best thing to start with:
The Bulls are taxpayers and that's probably not going to change anytime soon. They have all the assets to contend for the foreseeable future unless something crazy happens. Even their cheap owner Jerry Reinsdorf has handed over the reigns ton his son Michael. Maybe it's that connection that lead to the Bulls entering luxury tax territory. You can say his son did a great job convincing his dad to stop acting like a Dow Jones company CEO...It's not like the Bulls are in a small market and owned by an almost bankrupt owner. Their TV deal should compensate for way more than the Bulls pay extra for having a deep roster. It's 2013 and you can't offer rip off contracts to Scottie any longer to win a chip. Ask the Thunder, they know it best.
This upcoming season their books show commitments of over $78.4M, which drop to $65M next summer when Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich expire. While Luol is basically a lock to get resigned to a similar amount as Josh Smith, Kirk Hinrich's next contract will depend more on his and Marquis Teague's performance.
Other than that they don't have any exceptions left. So other than trading players their only option is adding via the veteran min.
Besides their own draft pick they'll probably have another in the low teens for trading Tyrus Thomas to Michael Jordan's Bobcats. Ironic isn't it?
This pick is top10 protected in 2014, top8 in 2015 and unprotected in 2016, but the way Charlotte is stocking up I don't see them finishing in the bottom 10 necessarily.
Add to that the arrival of Nikola Mirotic, a player who's won EuroLeague MVP in 2012 and looks like a true steal at pick #23 in 2011. 3 years after being drafted he's no longer bound to the rookie scale and will come over entering his prime. If not 2014, then in 2015. But that doesn't really matter.
The Bulls have a healthy mix of veteran players, stars in or entering their prime and didn't ship away their youth which will help them long term to maintain their contention window. Other than Mirotic and a valuable future Bobcats/Hornets pick, 2011 #30 pick Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson(#26 in 2009) were real steals at their respective positions. Add to that Omer Asik who outperformed his 2nd round draftposition so much they couldn't retain him and was a top10 rebounder last season. But their draft success shouldn't come as a surprise. After the MJ era ended they had to hard rebuild, which should be a reason why their scouting crew is practiced and capable. Thinking back in the last 11 years I can remember only 2 relative bust picks. One was Kirk Hinrich at #7 in 2003 when only David West was available and the other one was taking Tyrus Thomas over LaMarcus Aldridge in 2006, which at the same time was a blessing in disguise, as it lead to them getting Derrick Rose.
So if the Bulls make major changes, they have all the chips. They can trade the rights to Mirotic, the Bobcats pick and highly demanded players like Butler and Noah, yet I don't expect them to do anything until they think their current group won't bring a championship into town. The front office believes in continuity and won't jeopardy their chemistry.


This is going to be an extended look at their roster, since they have so many promising young players:
I was close to not walking on Derrick Rose, but his injury made me think it's good to write a couple sentences in general about him. Derrick's taken a very unique approach with his rehab by taking a 18 months break. Other players suffering the same injury have historically returned faster showing significant struggles early on while overcoming mental hurdles. Usually ACL injuries that haven't gone well were mostly leaked to the media. Others in recent history still need time to prove they haven't lost a step.
This uncommon approach though has made him media cannonfodder. Some described it as selfish behavior because he wasn't happy about the Bulls chances, others were sure he suffered setbacks while rehabbing and his injury will affect his long term performance. Everyone had an opinion, but Rose remained quiet. Not so his family though, which hurt his reputation quite a bit. But if he really returns with a reliable jump shot and still has enough strength and explosiveness to be the windy city assasin, people will forget about the "*** returned faster than Derrick Rose memes" and other web shenanigans.
As a fan I hope Rose will return stronger and make Kyrie Irving's offense look silly. But yeah I gotta remain realistic. If his whole package is right he's going to be capable to lead them to the conference finals again.
His regular season stats are very balanced, with shooting being his only weakness up to this point. Even in his injury riddled 11/12 campaign he maintained a PER of 23, only .5 below his prior MVP season numbers. His assistratio around 40% is not where Chris Paul is, but it's highest amongst point guards with the reputation to look for the finish over the pass.
His usage of 30-32% in his best years with a strong 13% turnover ratio, .21 winshares/48min, 113 Offensive Rating and 102 defensive rating will be the numbers to judge him after his injury. Can he return to these numbers or maybe even exceed them? Analysts will do multiple articles next season to compare him to pre injury.
Derrick won't care about it. He knows he's got to be the man in April, May and June. In his lone extended playoffrun that ended in defeat to the HEAT he saw his trueshooting drop to 50% from a regular season 55%, while his offensive rating took a hit to 107 and winshares/48 dropped to a still respectable .165!
Other categories were unaffected by the fact he played postseason, inclusing a 22.5 PER. It's his job to carry the Bulls through the postseason and Thibs' to put him into position and install an offense that allows him to do so.

Even mentioning Carlos Boozer, I'm sure I'll get a couple neg reps at least, but I'll keep it short. Opposite to the general opinion that Boozer is rapidly declining, he has only declined a little bit. And it's only visible on the offensive end, defensively the numbers suggest he's gotten better. Last season's dropoff in offensive efficiency can probably be explained by the fact he was a first offensive option on his team ever. The year before that he's posted a career high in winshares/48, improving his previous best of 0.185 by .002 which he recorded in his best season for Utah in 2006/2007. Other than that it's only his shooting% both TS% and effective FG% that display his age together with lowered free throw attempt compared to Jazz years. But with Derrick Rose returning I don't see why he can't improve his offensive efficiency at least slightly. Pair that with his success on the defensive end posting defensive ratings of 100, 95 and 99 in his 3 seasons in Chicago, which probably mean that he's gotten his trashtalk on a new level.
I'll close his section with stating he's probably the best defensive rebounder on the PF position with over 25% of the defensive boards. Recently I have seen a tweet that Carlos led the league last year in opp. FG% when he contested shots. But it doesn't show what he did when unable to contest shots, which also happened at times ;) Boozer will probably not be the reason if the Bulls fail to win. If he earned $1.5M a year none could hate on his contract.

Now it's time for one of my fav personalities in the league, the man from Sudan, Luol Deng!
He's known as "the glue guy" throughout the league, and no glue guy is not a poor Indian not being able to afford proper drugs. He's reportedly a tremendous impact in the locker room and is Thibodeau's guy for defense. While his numbers don't always relect that as his defensive rating is between 109 and 100, but his biggest value is probably in the eastern conference that he's able to defend LeBron James as good as anyone. Especially when he plays PF for stretches, Luol can defend that position as well. Offensively he's an all around guy who doesn't do anything too good, but everything good enough that it leads to a filled boxscore. He can handle the ball properly, which leads to a low 10% turnover ratio. His career averages of 46% from the field and 33% from behind the arc average but have declined in the last couple of seasons. We'll see if he can bounce back when eventually getting normal playing time and not leading the league. He's still just 28 years old and probably has a whole contract of productive years ahead of him. He'll infuse the Bulls with energy and veteran leadership to contribute to a title run next year.

Next up is the energy guy who together with Anthony Davis made ugly sexy. Not really, but you get what I mean. His trademark hairstyle and ferocious vocal outbursts makes him lovable by homers and hated by fans of other teams. Joakim Noah was ranked in the top 10 in defensive rating in all of the last 4 seasons and making last season's defensive 1st team show where his game begins.
He combines it with oustanding work on the offensive glass, where he finished 2nd in total off rebs in 11/12, his only of the last 4 seasons he could stay healthy for the whole time. That's 14% of the off rebs while on court combined with 22% of def rebs. Elite numbers. In Rose's absence his 56% trushooting dropped to 53.4%, but his assist percentage climbed up from 13.7 to 19.3. He's one of the better passer out of the post. Yet his increased offensive responsibilites resulted in his bad 13.7% TO ratio at a low 15.8% usage skyrocket to 19.3% TO% at 17.2% ratio. This season he'll handle the ball less so I expect that to sink again towards previous seasons. An elite defensive presence Noah is not about blocking shots, scratching 3.8% over his career from the boards. He's more about altering shots and his timing on help defense is very strong.
Before I continue with the next guy, Noah had a teamhigh PER of 18.1 last season and Offensive Rating of only 107 compared to his 120 and 117 the years before. He's usually highly efficient in his shot selection and a lot of it has to do with converting putbacks, being able to roll to the basket and always be available for an easy pass and last but not least being a successful freethrow shooter(75%) with an individual shooting technique.

Jimmy Butler is the Bulls least experienced player. He had a breakout season in 12/13, showing that he deserves of a rotation spot on the wing. The 6'7" swingman can defend either wing spot and cemented a starting position at SG after guarding Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade successfully in the playoffs. He recently told the Bulls he has worked on his perimeter game this offseason as he expects to get a lot of open shots from the corner especially. He's also commited to show better ballhandling skills, even though his 9.2% TO ratio say he's not giving away possessions all too often. After being used sparingly his rookie season, he yet wasn't inefficient in 8 mins of action per game. Solid 52.5% TS% and .144 winshares/48 suggest he could have been used more. But last season he killed it with a 121 Offensive Rating and a solid but bad for Bulls standards defensive rating of 104. A .158 winshare/48 rating and 15.1 PER suggest he deserves this starting spot. If he can improve on his 38% 3pt shooting and especially try more threes per game than 1.3 he'll be an integral part of Chicago's rotation.

I'm not done yet individually as we've still got Taj Gibson left. Taj is a great energy guy off the bench, deserving of starters minutes with an PER of around 15(16.9 in 11/12 and 14.4 in 12/13). His offensive efficiency is solid with 52% trueshooting and a 49% effective FG%. Rebounding on the defensive end is mediocre with 17% in the last 2 seasons, but on the other end 12% and 9.7% are showing why Chicago is so strong on securing rebounds. He's not much of an successful passer yet, posting a career high at assist percentage at 7.1 last season and his turnover ratio is mediocre in connection with his usage. The offensive efficiency of 109 and 104 in the 2 last years combined with winshares/48 of .169 and .109 are looking good. Contributing positively to his winshares is the fact he's blocking above 4.5% when he's on the court. A career average of 100 at defensive rating with a best of 96 in 11/12 show he's a capable defender.


My finishing touch today is going to be shorter than usual as I've been very detailed in my first two segments:
Chicago is going to attack the Heat next year and they have a good chance to succeed. Their defense is one of the best in the league and they're a functional group with great cohesiveness. Thibodeau is an elite defense teacher and with Rose back healthy we'll see what his offense can look like for the first time. Consider that if Rose and Butler really improved their long range shooting skills, together with Kirk Hinrich and their first wing off the bench Mike Dunleavy Jr. they have 4 backcourt player who can shoot it for real. While they're still lacking a stretch four and Deng's a streaky shooter, the backcourt can really make a difference. Don't forget that Marquis Teague shot 75% from deep in summer league. If he joins their crew of regular rotiation players they can really light it up. I expect their offense to start from the pick and roll. Derrick Rose with a 3pointer is going to be the best PnR guard in this league. Hands down. He's the best at changing speeds, ballhandling at full speed and of course full speed. He can utilize holes in the defensive, that even the cameras didn't show. As roll guys they've got Noah, Boozer and Gibson who're good at rolling to the basket as his first passing option. Butler and/or Dunleavy in the corners are deadly too. Their strong ball movement can also start clicking when it's not an open look as all the guys have this unselfishness to realize if the defense collapses and make the extra pass. At times(when Rose is on the bench) they can utilize Boozer as their low post presence while spreading the floor with Teague, Hinrich and Dunleavy. If their spreading the floor works they'll look scary.
I expect them to finish 1st or 2nd in the East and overall since the West is so close. It'll be a head to head race with Miami. Thibodeau doesn't allow his team to take possessions off in the regular season unfortunately, so there's a good chance they might win it.

Depth Chart:
PG: Derrick Rose, Marquis Teague
SG: Jimmy Butler, Kirk Hinrich
SF: Luol Deng, Mike Dunleavy, Tony Snell
PF: Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson, Erik Murphy
C: Joakim Noah, Nazr Mohammed

This competitiveness can also be a weakness in regular season, since the Bulls had injury problems the last years. If Thibs can manage the minutes better(which he should be able to since this is the strongest and most useful bench they've ever had) and they stay healthy with a strong return of Rose they'll be maybe on top of the serious contention group consisting of Miami, Indiana, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and the Bulls. (I view Brooklyn, NewYork, Memphis, LAC and Houston as less likely to win). Sitting only at 12 players Chicago may opt to invite another SG and Center to the camp or sign them right away if the quality is right. DeShawn Stevenson and Cole Aldrich would be my favorite additions of players still available. Snell and Murphy most likely won't see any playing time as they're rookies on a championshipcontender. That's it. Now I expect plenty of negs and pity reps stating that I'm delusional and should leave this board :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qeGR96SGzA
 
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I really wanted to finish the Pacers tonight :( Sleep deprivation combined with medication that makes me dizzy as **** prevented me from watching youtube clips about the players and analyzing their stats!
 
Pacers

Due to unfavorable medication that made me sleepy at the usual time of day when I write these pieces, I was forced to take a week off.
But now it's time to continue in order to finish with the 30th team when season starts.

Today I focus on last season's Eastern Conference runner up - The Indiana Pacers!

First part on Indiana is going to be easy. The way they loaded their books doesn't give them many options but trade and extend players.

Much speculation on Danny Granger returning from injury has been made. His expiring $14M contract is going to be in discussion until the trade deadline.
I don't like to be a bummer from the start, but don't expect him to be traded if he's playing decent. The Pacers know this year is their best chance to attack for a title run. They have so many returning key pieces and all of their core players has spent a servicable amount of time together and developed good chemistry on the floor.
Indiana is unfortunately one of these cheap teams that refuse to go over the tax threshold no matter how successful their squad is.
So giving both Paul George and Danny Granger huge contracts is not gonna happen. They already have committed $47M in guaranteed salary for 14/15. Add to that a non guaranteed $4.9M
option on Luis Scola which he is likely to outperform and you're right at $52M and have to add Paul George's max extension to the mix. This won't leave much more room for Danny Granger than a $7M starting salary for Granger to avoid the tax. It's not a given that he'll outperform such a contract, but he was a poised scorer before his injury. If he returns and puts up numbers anywhere close to it I still don't expect other teams to show much interest other than creating long term capspace. The big contender are all set at the SF position, and emerging teams that want to add his veteran experience and scoring
to make the next step will take a big risk. He'll be unrestricted FA next summer, making it a gamble to extend him to a fair market price.
The only way I see him getting dealt midway through the season is in a deal with a team returning long term midlevel money together with a talent and a smaller expiring contract around the same midlevel size.
The Pacers won't take back more than $7M in longterm money/season and they'll do that ONLY in case they like the deal. Otherwise they'll use Granger and George as swingman, switching back and forth at SG and SF according to defensive duties.
Overall the Pacers addressed their deficiencies of their bench unit this offseason. They got rid of Gerald Greens contract together with their sophomore center Miles Plumlee and a future lottery protected 1st rounder.
Indiana wants to win, and they want to win NOW. Their bench consisting of Granger, Scola, Mahinmi(in case he finds back to his performance in his last season in Dallas), CJ Watson and Chris Copeland looks way more scary than what they had to offer last year. To be fair though, they never expected that their defense would carry them all the way to a game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals. They did what they had to do and are rightfully very happy with their offseason results.


Deep as they are, the individual evaluation will be longer than for young teams trying to gather more assets and improve individually:

Their most important player and Most Improved Players of the 12/13 season Paul George's development will be analyzed first:
George will be one of the players we'll talk about in MVP discussions this season. Having said that the stats don't show yet that he belongs there. His 16.8 PER is only an improvement of .3 from 11/12. He posted an good average 53% True shooting. The areas where he really did improve were involving others and defense. His AST% raised from 13.6 to 19.6, while his usage while on the floor went from 19.3 to 23.5. He got a bigger role and didn't lose significant impact on the floor. His relative defensive rebounding of 19% has always been strong and is hardly an improvement from the year before, but it's a solid rebounding for a PF even, so if he can maintain that, it's worth a lot. What really stands out are his Defensive Rating of 97 resulting into 6.3 Defensive Win Shares. He can lock down almost every wing player when he's asked to. People say he's grown since entering the league and actually measures 6'10" right now while still moving like a lanky 6'7" small forward.
Having talked about his strengths, his game leaves room for plenty improvement:
1) Turnovers: 15.2% Turnover Ratio is nothing to be proud of. Especially when you're only used every fourth possession on the floor. He really has to take care better of the basketball. That's a hard thing to accomplish, especially with an increasing offensive responsibility to shoulder.
2) Improve offensive efficiency around the basket. While his 36% 3 point shooting on nearly 6 attempts per game are awesome, his 46% inside the arc are not that good for a player with a physical advantage like Paul. Add to that, that he only goes to the free throw line 3.5 times a game and you get the idea he shies away from contact and settles for more difficult shots instead. Attacking the basket successfully with confidence is the most important part to improve. If he can do that his pedestrian offensive rating of 104 will skyrocket and justify a max contract.
Adding to point 2) is that in last years playoffs he did some of the suggested change. He hit 2s at a 50% clip and went to the line almost 7 times a game. But in the process his 3 point shooting took a dip to 33% and he took 1 less attempt per game. His Assist Ratio raised even higher to a strong 24.4%, but unfortunately his turnover ratio went up too. 18.4% is not how often you want your most active player to turn the ball over. Unfortunately his defensive rating wasn't elite either. 103 is still good, but the whole Pacers team suffered in that category.
ToDo list for George: Improve handle and decision making while handling the rock, become more efficient offensively and attack the basket continuously.
If he can do that he's winning MVP in case his Pacers finish regular season with the best record in the league.
This video supports my statements(I found it after finishing the writing part, could have saved me a lot of time :D)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=bLXLReLgdxA&t=110

David West is their best offensive player at this point. Always flying under the radar, the prototype Xavier player, was selected only 18th overall in 2003. He's too small, not athletic enough, his strength won't compensate for shortcomings, his shooting neither. That's a wide array of knocks people say about his game. Yet he's never been really affected by it and is one of the better PFs in the league. While he's clearly not at superstar level, he's definately deserving of his contracts. With his improved defense in Indiana, maybe even more than what he's paid...
Let's take a look at his numbers: In the last 8 years, has been between 18.9 and 20.4 with 1 exception(17.9 in his first year with the Pacers). His winshares/48 are equally consistent over that period. Last year has been a career yeer at age 32 statistically. A 20.1 PER with .179 Winshares/48 and the first time his Defensive Rating dipped below 100 to 99. He's refined his play to a veteran game, and because he's never been a superb leaper, it's not surprising he's still efficient. Strength is the easiest quality to preserve while aging when you take care of your body together with technical skills such as shooting. If you look at his statsheet, no stat catches your eye. Which is good, because that means there's nothing affecting his play negatively. He's really average for a starter in every category, but the lack of weaknesses puts him over the average level to borderline star level.
Standing out most is probably his veteran leadership and clutch plays he aided his team with in the playoffs. If he can stay healthy as he's throughout his career, he's their legitimate first inside option on offense.

Their defensive bulwark is headlined by 26 year old, 7'2" center Roy Hibbert Drafted 17th overall he's come a long way.
He's one of the few players staying 4 years in school and becoming great athletes afterwards. Georgetown was a great fit as a big man. Looking at the products they sent to the NBA Hibbert fits right in. He's a skilled center, who's going to contend for DPOY every single year of his prime. After having problems early in the season, he regained his strength and was arguably their best player in the playoffs. He kept the rim clean like few others in the league are capable of. But with altering shots the downside is that he's too tall and slow to get up for the rebound again. He's pulling down a pedestrian 17.4% on the defensive end. But on the offensive end he's showing what kind of numbers are possible if he wouldn't contest so many shots. 14.8% or 4.7 per game are truly elite and provides the Pacers with plenty 2nd chance opportunities and putbacks.
I don't want to take into consideration the regular season offensive numbers, as Hibbert was clearly affected through the first half of the season from the split from Darren Collison. He took time to build synergy with George Hill, but when it kicked in he was awesome. In 19 Playoff games, Hibbert posted a 21.2 PER highlighted by his 5.3 trips to the foul line per game. Converting them at a .8 clip skyrocketed his TS% to 57.6% in addition to his 51% field goal percentage. Additionally he recorded a career low 13.3% Turnover ratio. He has soft hand, but considering his size it's hard to imagine that he can reduce these numbers even further. During the playoffs he even surpassed the 109 Offensive Rating from his 11/12 campaign to 117. His 6.7% Block ratio during regular season shows how much he wants to utilize his size to swat away shots. In the postseason that number dropped to 4.4%. If he can improve his balance between trying to block shots and utilizing his reputation to do it to alter other shots that he doesn't jump up for will make him even stronger as it helps him to box out his opponent and be a strothnger defensive rebounder.
If he can maintain his offensive production from the playoffs and expand his defense with a more clever approach I see no reason why he can't become a DPOY candidate.

George Hill is kind of the Pacers cinderella. Many think he's overpaid with his $40M/5 contract. But looking at his stats it suggest strengths and weaknesses.
Starting what he's got to improve first thing hitting is that he's not good at creating for others. He's a low usage(18.8%) player who doesn't share too often (23.4%). But the Pacers have a teamconcept of cascading space by running multiple screens in their sets until they find an open shot or cut to the basket through failed defensive assignments of the opponent. This requires Hill to play disciplined and dribble to ball over halfcourt and initiate a set.
If he was getting assists by creating for others off the pick and roll or isolations, he'd be more valuable than $8M per year. But the Pacers got George for these situations.
Transitioning to his strengths it's worth noting that he's mediocre at handling the ball. 10% turnover ratio might seem low for a PG, but compared to the time he's got the rocks in their sets and how little he's used it's only "OK".
What he excels at is shooting the ball. A 37% three point shooter, he attempts 4.5 a game. If you look at his development, he took more threes in each of his seasons, while not letting his numbers drop. That suggests he's learning where to position himself. He's not jacking them up off the dribble, instead he's waiting his inside players to force his defender to sink in and pass him the rock. An excellent 56% TS% and Offensive Rating of 117 highlight his efficiency.
At 6'1" w/o shoes, he's got average size at PG, but he's improved defensively throughout his career. 3.8 Defensive Win Shares marked a career high last season.
Combine his shot selection and defense and you know where his above average 16.6 PER and very strong .117 WS/48 are coming from.

Last player to watch is Luis Scola. The recently added 6th man is a 33 year old veteran best known for his offense. That's exactly what the Pacers want him to provide. If they lacked anything last season it was offense. Their 94.7 PPG and 104.3 Off Rtg were in the 20s. Their defense was what brought them this far. Looking at his stats I was surprised how much his offense declined since turning 29. The first 2 years in the league he had WS/48 of .154 and .165 with TS% of 54.8 and 57.2. Add to that Defensive Ratings of 101 which may be easily result of not being one of the first 2 options on his team and a "healthy" Yao in the paint.
Since Houston started to rebuild he was their 1st or 2nd offensive option and the same happened last year in Phoenix. Since then his TrueShooting, WS/48 and both Offensive and Defensive Ratings declined massively. His above 110 ORtgs of his first 2 seasons hit the bottom in his last year with the Rockets at 102 and recovered only slightly to 105 in Phoenix. His Defensive Ratings have been constantly around 107, which kind of confirms the eye test that he's a little bit too slow and a below average defender. Scola has always been a good ballhandler(11% TOV% at a above average usage of 23.3%) and defensive rebounder(20.4% of the rebounds are also slightly above average for a PF. But considering his size and lack of hops one would think they'd be lower).
He still posted above PER above 15 the last seasons, but his winshares were below .1 the previous couple years. Taking a step back in the pecking order in Indiana might bring back his offensive efficiency displayed when he played behind Yao. If it does he's absolutely worth his money. If not expect his non guaranteed salary to get cut next summer.


To finish the Pacers section, I'll look at what they bring to the hardwood in the upcoming season:

Coach Vogel will continue to do exactly what he did last year: Hard defense, smart help defense with their 7'2" defensive anchor Roy Hibbert guarding the paint and give the ball to George and West. They have a good mix of outside shooting(basically everyone through 1 to 3 can hit the 3pointer at a respectable clip at least) and inside back to the basket game mainly through West, Hibbert and Scola. All 3 of them also can step out to the free throw line and knock down open looks.
Their biggest challenge will be masking Scolas defensive shortcomings on the floor. I don't know if Mahinmi is the optimal partner for him in the frontcourt, so I expect him to share the paint with Hibbert through the 2nd and 3rd quarter more often than not. Having West and Granger score for the 2nd unit midway through the game will be beneficial as CJ Watson isn't exactly the kind of player who makes players around him better, but he's a gifted scorer.
The sheer amount of offensive reliable options will make lots of lineups viable. But it's not only Scola: Copeland, Granger and Watson aren't exactly known for being lockdown defender. So I'll expect the two lineups to get mixed a lot to react to the opponents.

Depth Chart:

PG: George Hill, CJ Watson, Donald Sloan
SG: Lance Stephenson, Danny Granger, Orlando Johnson
SF: Paul George, Chris Copeland, Solomon Hill
PF: David West, Luis Scola
C: Roy Hibbert, Ian Mahinmi

The Pacers have a good shot to achieve close to 60 regular season wins with the way they approach the game. Defense leading into offense will win them games when the shot isn't falling.
With the Eastern conference split into 2 parts: 5 contender, 2-3 young teams trying to make the next step towards the playoffs and the rest of the East putting different amount of effort into telling their fans that they're not tanking even though it looks like - and they are of course.
The increased expectations derived from last season's surprising success as a new small market contender will make them a target in high profile matchups, but I expect them to withstand pressure with their core improving quickly and get one of thetop 3 seeds in the East.
Frank Vogel may be one of the few Coach of the Year winner in the last decade to not get fired right after winning that jinx award.
Either way, expect them to give every other team that wants to be playing in June a serious challenge to get there.
 
Paul george is overrated and he can't be 1st option or best player in a championship TEAM and if indy gives him max, they will suck and they will stuck with mediocrity.
 
I'm in principle finished with my part about the Bucks. Sanders extension forces me to rewrite the first part. So it'll be live tomorrow.
So I'll start writing about the Northwest teams now.
 
ESPN just did a piece on the NW. Can anyone link the portion on the Jazz?
 
Stoked said:
ESPN just did a piece on the NW. Can anyone link the portion on the Jazz?
Click to expand...

I wonder how I'd like their piece.
I'm positive though that copying a whole article would be infringement of copyrights.

Btw I'm really not satisfied with the available data I got on defense of the players I evaluate. I know synergysports offers subscriptions that gives huge amount of data to its buyers, but does anyone know free stuff that's are better than the available Defensive Ratings to combine with eye test and common knowledge?
 
BTP said:
I wonder how I'd like their piece.
I'm positive though that copying a whole article would be infringement of copyrights.

Btw I'm really not satisfied with the available data I got on defense of the players I evaluate. I know synergysports offers subscriptions that gives huge amount of data to its buyers, but does anyone know free stuff that's are better than the available Defensive Ratings to combine with eye test and common knowledge?
Click to expand...

Which is why I am asking for the Jazz portion and not the entire article about the NW.
 
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