The Biden Administration and All Things Politics

[Red]

Food for thought.

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/america-politics-divided-polarization-data

Here's a wild thought experiment: What if we've been deceived into thinking we're more divided, more dysfunctional and more defeated than we actually are?

Why it matters: Well, there's compelling evidence we've been trapped in a reality distortion bubble — social media, cable TV and tribal political wars — long enough to warp our view of the reality around us.

The big picture: Yes, deep divisions exist on some topics. But on almost every topic of monthly outrage, it's a fringe view — or example — amplified by the loudest voices on social media and politicians driving it.

• No, most Christians aren't white Christian nationalists who see Donald Trump as a God-like figure. Most are ignoring politics and wrestling with their faith.
• No, most college professors aren't trying to silence conservatives or turn kids into liberal activists. Most are teaching math, or physics, or biology.
• No, most kids don't hate Israel and run around chanting, "From the river to the sea." On most campuses, most of the time, students are doing what students have always done.
• No, most Republicans don't want to ban all abortions starting at conception. No, most Democrats don't want to allow them until birth.
• No, immigrants who are here illegally aren't rushing to vote and commit crimes. Actual data show both rarely happen — even amid a genuine crisis at the border.
• No, most people aren't fighting on X. Turns out, the vast majority of Americans never tweet at all.
• No, most people aren't cheering insults on Fox News and MSNBC in the evening. Turns out, less than 2 percent of Americans are even watching.

 

[LogGrad98]

Food for thought.

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/america-politics-divided-polarization-data

Here's a wild thought experiment: What if we've been deceived into thinking we're more divided, more dysfunctional and more defeated than we actually are?

Why it matters: Well, there's compelling evidence we've been trapped in a reality distortion bubble — social media, cable TV and tribal political wars — long enough to warp our view of the reality around us.

The big picture: Yes, deep divisions exist on some topics. But on almost every topic of monthly outrage, it's a fringe view — or example — amplified by the loudest voices on social media and politicians driving it.

• No, most Christians aren't white Christian nationalists who see Donald Trump as a God-like figure. Most are ignoring politics and wrestling with their faith.
• No, most college professors aren't trying to silence conservatives or turn kids into liberal activists. Most are teaching math, or physics, or biology.
• No, most kids don't hate Israel and run around chanting, "From the river to the sea." On most campuses, most of the time, students are doing what students have always done.
• No, most Republicans don't want to ban all abortions starting at conception. No, most Democrats don't want to allow them until birth.
• No, immigrants who are here illegally aren't rushing to vote and commit crimes. Actual data show both rarely happen — even amid a genuine crisis at the border.
• No, most people aren't fighting on X. Turns out, the vast majority of Americans never tweet at all.
• No, most people aren't cheering insults on Fox News and MSNBC in the evening. Turns out, less than 2 percent of Americans are even watching.

I see where he's coming from. But the problem lies in the fact that those making real policy decisions that affect us in our real lives are on the fringe in this regard. So the fringe opinions are becoming policy, and thereby becoming actual reality. I'm sure he's right about what most Americans in those groups really want and feel and believe, but when the fringes are in power, the danger and division becomes very real.

Also the vote would indicate that even if most Americans don't support the full fringe platform, they sure as hell vote for those that do. That's at minimum tacit approval which, in reality, may as well be full espousal. How else do we end up with laws that criminalize a 10 year old rape victim crossing state lines to get an abortion from the baby of her rapist, for example.

 

[Red]

I see where he's coming from. But the problem lies in the fact that those making real policy decisions that affect us in our real lives are on the fringe in this regard. So the fringe opinions are becoming policy, and thereby becoming actual reality. I'm sure he's right about what most Americans in those groups really want and feel and believe, but when the fringes are in power, the danger and division becomes very real.

Also the vote would indicate that even if most Americans don't support the full fringe platform, they sure as hell vote for those that do. That's at minimum tacit approval which, in reality, may as well be full espousal. How else do we end up with laws that criminalize a 10 year old rape victim crossing state lines to get an abortion from the baby of her rapist, for example.

Don’t disagree with you. But I look at it this way. Not minimizing alarm or sense of real danger, but I think reactionary movements, in the 21st century, are doomed to fail, in the long run. But, it’s getting to that long run that may be destructive of our body politic. Certainly concerned about a Trump 2.0, and Project 2025. I am not concerned about America returning to the 19th century. In the long run. We’ve had reactionary spasms before. The anti-Catholic, ant-Irish Know Nothing Party put people in Congress in the 1850’s, as one example.

Yes, radical right elements may haunt us if Trump wins. I think we’re in for a hellish experience whoever wins in November. But, in the long run, anti-science, willful ignorance, controlling women, conspiracism and irrational beliefs, all these foolish reactions will fail. Truth will triumph over lies. I will choose to believe that, even though I’m no spring chicken, so not sure I’ll live to see it. Consider all the unbelievable lies and nonsense presented by MAGA, and I cannot imagine such a state being the case in this country for too long, before it is swept into the dustbin of history. There is absolutely nothing inspirational, unifying, or uplifting in spirit about any of it. And, as such, it won’t win.

In the long haul, people will not hang their national identity on fear and anger.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

How else do we end up with laws that criminalize a 10 year old rape victim crossing state lines to get an abortion from the baby of her rapist, for example.

We have kidnapping laws that prevent movement of minors across state lines without consent of the parent, but there is no law criminalizing a parent taking their kid across state lines even if the purpose of the journey is to get an abortion. Get out of your silo. You live in cuckooland. The fringes do not have ruling authority in the United States.

 

[LogGrad98]

Don’t disagree with you. But I look at it this way. Not minimizing alarm or sense of real danger, but I think reactionary movements, in the 21st century, are doomed to fail, in the long run. But, it’s getting to that long run that may be destructive of our body politic. Certainly concerned about a Trump 2.0, and Project 2025. I am not concerned about America returning to the 19th century. In the long run. We’ve had reactionary spasms before. The anti-Catholic, ant-Irish Know Nothing Party put people in Congress in the 1850’s, as one example.

Yes, radical right elements may haunt us if Trump wins. I think we’re in for a hellish experience whoever wins in November. But, in the long run, anti-science, willful ignorance, controlling women, conspiracism and irrational beliefs, all these foolish reactions will fail. Truth will triumph over lies. I will choose to believe that, even though I’m no spring chicken, so not sure I’ll live to see it. Consider all the unbelievable lies and nonsense presented by MAGA, and I cannot imagine such a state being the case in this country for too long, before it is swept into the dustbin of history. There is absolutely nothing inspirational, unifying, or uplifting in spirit about any of it. And, as such, it won’t win.

In the long haul, people will not hang their national identity on fear and anger.

I think largely you are right. There is the possibility this spirals into something worse before it gets better, as happened at the civil war or in the fascist states in the early 1900's. I like to think the odds of that are slim here but we are in uncharted waters with the unparalleled access to social media and the 24/7 propaganda and indoctrination machines the likes of which we've really never seen before. Time will tell the power of these new complicating factors, but we need to continue to be aware of the dangers ahead of us.

 

[Deleted member 365]

I’ve been told that high grocery prices, not racism, turns off voters. If true, then I have no idea why anyone would vote for Trump. Especially since I’ve been reassured by good folks on the right that they’re not motivated by racism. And I’ve been told that voters are truly feeling the inflation squeeze and not just repeating the narrative they’ve been fed by a media desperate for another season of the Trump show.

Trump’s Tariff Would Cost the Typical American Household Roughly $1,500 Each Year

Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff would raise prices for consumers and be far less effective at reinvigorating U.S. manufacturing than President Joe Biden’s approach.

www.americanprogressaction.org

 

[Red]

Here’s the real reason Biden is better off than the Horse Race polls suggest, according to top pollsters | Fortune

Americans are less concerned about the economy–and more concerned about political extremism. That's good for Biden.

fortune.com

—-As pollsters, we look at a variety of metrics when assessing an election. One of these includes what Americans are most worried about, what we call the “main issue.” These indicators have interesting properties. Empirically, candidates strongest on the main problem win the election 85% of the time. We pay special attention to this metric as the campaign unfolds–whoever owns the main issue will typically win the election. Take Biden and COVID-19 in 2020, George W. Bush and national security in 2004, or Bill Clinton and the economy in 1992.

—-Presently, our polling shows that “political extremism or threats to democracy” leads the pack in first place at 23% in importance with “the economy” and “immigration” roughly tied for second at 19% and 17%, respectively. “Threats to democracy” is an issue that Biden dominates. It was a key theme for Democrats in the 2022 midterms and will be a central one in 2024. In our research, it serves as a strong proxy for the anti-Trump vote. In contrast, “immigration” is a Trump and Republican issue. Trump won on it in 2016 and used it to govern throughout his administration.

—However, with the main issues–democracy and immigration–so close in importance, things can change.

—Considering our 85% rule (that the main issue is critical in determining electoral outcomes), the implications here are clear. If “threats to democracy” stays the number one issue, Biden is likely to win the election. Biden has a 12-percentage point lead over Trump on democracy. If it is immigration or the economy, the odds will shift back toward Trump. Trump has an average 8-percentage point lead over Biden on these issues.

—Critically, we believe the polling industry is producing false positives. Most polling shops do not have “political extremism” or “saving democracy” as attributes in their most important problems questions.

—However, in the experimentation that Ipsos has done, we see that adding “political extremism or threats to democracy” as a main worry significantly shifts what Americans cite as their chief concern compared to more typical main issue questions. Because of this oversight, most public pollsters show “immigration” as the dominant issue of the day. The market right now has a blind spot and is not capturing a critical concern among the public.

 

[fishonjazz]

Well, I guess one fellow Georgia citizen might have heard Marjorie.

Woman shooting at cars during solar eclipse says 'God made me do it'

A woman who said she was directed by God to go on a shooting spree, fired at random vehicles as she travelled westbound down a Florida highway before being picked up by cops

www.dailystar.co.uk

Wow

Sent from my CPH2451 using Tapatalk

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Here’s the real reason Biden is better off than the Horse Race polls suggest, according to top pollsters | Fortune

Americans are less concerned about the economy–and more concerned about political extremism. That's good for Biden.

fortune.com

—-As pollsters, we look at a variety of metrics when assessing an election. One of these includes what Americans are most worried about, what we call the “main issue.” These indicators have interesting properties. Empirically, candidates strongest on the main problem win the election 85% of the time. We pay special attention to this metric as the campaign unfolds–whoever owns the main issue will typically win the election. Take Biden and COVID-19 in 2020, George W. Bush and national security in 2004, or Bill Clinton and the economy in 1992.

—-Presently, our polling shows that “political extremism or threats to democracy” leads the pack in first place at 23% in importance with “the economy” and “immigration” roughly tied for second at 19% and 17%, respectively. “Threats to democracy” is an issue that Biden dominates. It was a key theme for Democrats in the 2022 midterms and will be a central one in 2024. In our research, it serves as a strong proxy for the anti-Trump vote. In contrast, “immigration” is a Trump and Republican issue. Trump won on it in 2016 and used it to govern throughout his administration.

—However, with the main issues–democracy and immigration–so close in importance, things can change.

—Considering our 85% rule (that the main issue is critical in determining electoral outcomes), the implications here are clear. If “threats to democracy” stays the number one issue, Biden is likely to win the election. Biden has a 12-percentage point lead over Trump on democracy. If it is immigration or the economy, the odds will shift back toward Trump. Trump has an average 8-percentage point lead over Biden on these issues.

—Critically, we believe the polling industry is producing false positives. Most polling shops do not have “political extremism” or “saving democracy” as attributes in their most important problems questions.

—However, in the experimentation that Ipsos has done, we see that adding “political extremism or threats to democracy” as a main worry significantly shifts what Americans cite as their chief concern compared to more typical main issue questions. Because of this oversight, most public pollsters show “immigration” as the dominant issue of the day. The market right now has a blind spot and is not capturing a critical concern among the public.

All of that is a nice story but the reality is that Joe Biden, or whomever the Democrats nominate, will win because the system is rigged. Even if Trump had a ten point lead on election day, the Democrat nominee will still win. Trump will not be president again, ever. We may not see a Republican win the White House for decades.

 

[Deleted member 365]

lol

 

[Red]

We may not see a Republican win the White House for decades.

Be their own fault if that’s the case. Maybe they can steal an election. If at first you don’t succeed….

 

[Red]

Blowing up in his face….

MSN

It took little more than a day for Donald Trump’s political gambit on abortion to come undone.

On Monday, the former president declined to support any new national law setting limits on abortions. Going against the views of many abortion opponents in his Republican Party, Trump was looking for a way to neutralize or at least muddy a galvanizing issue that has fueled Democratic victories for nearly two years. He hoped to keep it mostly out of the conversation ahead of the November elections.

On Tuesday, the Arizona Supreme Court showed just how difficult it will be to do that. The court resurrected an 1864 law that bans nearly all abortions, except to save the life of the mother. The law also imposes penalties on abortion providers.

Trump had said let the states handle the issue. The Arizona court showed the full implications of that states’ rights strategy.

The Arizona ruling came in a state that will be especially crucial in deciding the outcome of the presidential election, a state that President Biden won by fewer than 11,000 votes and that Trump’s campaign team has eyed as one of the best opportunities for a pickup. It is likely that a referendum to protect abortion rights will be on Arizona’s ballot in November. The court ruling only heightens the significance of the issue for the rest of the campaign year.

But the court ruling reverberated far beyond Arizona’s borders. The Biden-Harris campaign and other Democrats pounced on the ruling in an effort to further their argument that Trump and Republicans are a threat to freedoms.