The Future: Who to Keep, at what price, and what it means for us

[fishonjazz]

Also @naos, maybe you have not been around much lately but I think yesterday might have been the first post I made about Burks in a couple of weeks and only because in the gamethread someone said we know who our small forward, power forward, and center of the future are... now we just need to figure out our sg and pg.

I said burks might be our sg of the future. Doesn't seem to outlandish since he was starting before his injury and just signed a contract extension.

And then I posted about Burks in this thread because I thought it was appropriate.

I have decreased my Burks related posts by a ton..... almost down to zero since the injury.

 

[Dumb Bloke]

I said it in another thread and I will say it again. Burks will be one of the core that we build around and he will earn his contract. He still has not reached his ceiling imo and is already a pretty good player.

During last season the knock on burks was that he was a one trick pony (only good at attacking and only good with the ball). Most people were saying that he can not play in a system, is too selfish, not a good enough floor spreader/3 point shooter, needed to shoot better from the line, and not a good defender.

Snyder got his godly hooks into burks and had burks leading the team in 3pt percentage (a career high on a career high number of attempts), leading the team in free throw percentage (a career high), and playing unselfish and within the system. (all while being injured btw)

Only weakness that he didn't turn into a strength is defense (though I thought even his defense was better than last year, though still poor)

I figure Snyder will get burks playing better defense, and burks will probably add 5-10 lbs to his frame to help his defense, plus goberts emergence will help and hopefully the defensive attitude of exum, gobert, favors, and Hayward will rub off on him.

The starters go from minus 1 to plus 15 when Burks is subbed out. There win% goes from 40 to 60%. That's nearly champion contender win% levels. No way he is core with how advanced analytics plays into decisions. There's just no way around it.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Well we can't get rid of Burks any time soon, so we kind of have to keep him. No one is going to want to trade for him right now.

Favors/Hayward/Gobert are the core you want to keep right now. Favors/Gobert are showing signs of being able to pair up for a top-10 defense without much perimeter defensive talent and Hayward can score and makes everyone better.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The starters go from minus 1 to plus 15 when Burks is subbed out. There win% goes from 40 to 60%. That's nearly champion contender win% levels. No way he is core with how advanced analytics plays into decisions. There's just no way around it.

The schedule was super hard when Burks was healthy and became much easier once he got injured, so kind of unreliable stats.

 

[fishonjazz]

The starters go from minus 1 to plus 15 when Burks is subbed out. There win% goes from 40 to 60%. That's nearly champion contender win% levels. No way he is core with how advanced analytics plays into decisions. There's just no way around it.

Good info.
Will be interesting to see if those stats become a long term trend when he gets healthy.
If so, then trade or bench him

 

[Stifle Tower]

So for 11 guys (Hayward, Favors, Burks, Burke, Gobert, Exum, Novak, Hood, Clark, Evans and Christopher), we're only at 54,735,928. I did not count Felix because we traded him and I don't think his numbers are on our books. That figure also counts Evans' exorbitant cap hold which is listed on shamsports but not spotrac as well as Novak's contract which stinks for what he's brought to the table. Knowing this, if we extend Kanter starting at 10M, and end up with the 9th pick (for argument's sake) and the first year of that is 2.3M (this year it was 2.103M), this still only brings us to 67,035,928 for 13 players.

Really not bad at all. Especially since like I said, Novak and Evans are about 6.5M of that.

Cross out Christopher; he was waived. So his salary comes off the cap as soon as he recovers.

In calculating available cap space, there are also holds put in place for a team's various exceptions, unless a team renounces them. So heading into the summer, Jazz will be well over the cap with all the holds. Basically leaves the team with two options when it comes to free agency: retain Kanter and use the MLE to sign a FA or renounce Kanter, perhaps decline the option on Booker, renounce some or all of the exceptions and go after a top-tier FA (like a Matthews or Millsap). Although I would LOVE to have Paul or Wesley back, I don't think it will happen. More likely scenario would be for Utah to keep Kanter and then target another player along the lines of DMC with the MLE.

Of course it also depends on who is available in the draft. Outside the top-3 - which I never count on because it entails getting lucky in the lottery - I like Johnson the best. But he's probably gone by the time Utah picks (if they keep winning and fall in the 8-12 range). Porzingis is intriguing. Russell also fits a position of need. And I'd love to have a center tandem of Giobert/WCS.

 

[QuinSnydersHair]

Cross out Christopher; he was waived. So his salary comes off the cap as soon as he recovers.

In calculating available cap space, there are also holds put in place for a team's various exceptions, unless a team renounces them. So heading into the summer, Jazz will be well over the cap with all the holds. Basically leaves the team with two options when it comes to free agency: retain Kanter and use the MLE to sign a FA or renounce Kanter, perhaps decline the option on Booker, renounce some or all of the exceptions and go after a top-tier FA (like a Matthews or Millsap). Although I would LOVE to have Paul or Wesley back, I don't think it will happen. More likely scenario would be for Utah to keep Kanter and then target another player along the lines of DMC with the MLE.

Of course it also depends on who is available in the draft. Outside the top-3 - which I never count on because it entails getting lucky in the lottery - I like Johnson the best. But he's probably gone by the time Utah picks (if they keep winning and fall in the 8-12 range). Porzingis is intriguing. Russell also fits a position of need. And I'd love to have a center tandem of Giobert/WCS.

What holds? I put in the hold for Evans and we already extended Burks.

 

[Dumb Bloke]

The schedule was super hard when Burks was healthy and became much easier once he got injured, so kind of unreliable stats.

What does the schedule have to do with it? Also, Hood has been injured too so The games during Burks injury arent included for comparing.

Good info.
Will be interesting to see if those stats become a long term trend when he gets healthy.
If so, then trade or bench him

We have over 400 minutes already, dont need more really.

I think you're asking the wrong questions tho. Does Burks fit in if we have a point guard? Maybe, but we only have 24 minute sample size. Jazz are +9 when Exum replaces Burke.

2nd question does Burks fit in if Gobert replaces Kanter? Gobert and Favors have had such little burn so far that we do not know. This is why the Kanter injury is a good thing so we can find out. Too bad Burks is out and we have two variables complicating potential answers. We could know our core in two weeks if Burks wasn't hurt.

 

[QuinSnydersHair]

I don't wanna diss Burks because his year was pretty solid all things considered. On my eyeball test though, he just doesn't seem to fit in with this team concept and looks sort of out of place.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

What does the schedule have to do with it? Also, Hood has been injured too so The games during Burks injury arent included for comparing.



We have over 400 minutes already, dont need more really.

I think you're asking the wrong questions tho. Does Burks fit in if we have a point guard? Maybe, but we only have 24 minute sample size. Jazz are +9 when Exum replaces Burke.

2nd question does Burks fit in if Gobert replaces Kanter? Gobert and Favors have had such little burn so far that we do not know. This is why the Kanter injury is a good thing so we can find out. Too bad Burks is out and we have two variables complicating potential answers. We could know our core in two weeks if Burks wasn't hurt.

Better teams typically have really good starters.

 

[fishonjazz]

I don't wanna diss Burks because his year was pretty solid all things considered. On my eyeball test though, he just doesn't seem to fit in with this team concept and looks sort of out of place.

Agreed.
Something just didnt look right.

I'm hoping that the team as a whole just was not as good or as far along learning the system earlier in the year and that if Burks was healthy and on the court with gobert, favors, and Hayward, the way they are playing now that he and the team would look better.

That might be just wishful thinking though.

 

[fishonjazz]

We have over 400 minutes already, dont need more really.

From what I have heard we actually have zero minutes. (I hear Burks has been dealing with a shoulder injury his while career..... Though I never knew about before like a month ago)