The Jazz rebuild

[@nsanba]

Ultimately, it comes down to the fact we just don't have the players to compete in any significant way. Maybe mediocrity is good enough for some, but I long for the days when Utah was always at the top of the league. That's not happening without getting a few star players, and you can't just assume all of your draft picks are going to work out. You keep stockpiling picks and young players until you strike gold, at which point you can cash in some of those assets for an established vet or two. I think Utah is closer to this point than some might think.

Stockpiling draft picks isn't some sort of fool proof plan either. In fact I will go on record and say that stockpiling high draft picks is detrimental to their development. High draft picks have their higher value before they are made. Trading "should" result into a bigger payoff than drafting them and having them diminish their progresso both on the court and on the trade market. For instance, Kanter and Burks will never get the chance to show what they can do like Favs and G were allowed to last year. And by that regard they are less impactfull to the Jazz and even less impactful in the trade market.

Anyway, if somebody can come up with a better idea, I'd love to hear it. I'm frustrated that we didn't start our rebuild when we should have, but there's nothing we can do about it now. I, for one, am just grateful that Utah at least started rebuilding the right way, rather than chasing the 8th seed every year.

It took S&M 5 years to get out of the first round. Sometimes getting ousted in the 2st round isn't the worst thing in the world.

Ultimately, we are really only in our second season of rebuilding, and rebuilds take time. I think the biggest thing people are missing is that Utah IS in a position to make a significant trade sometime in the next year. Regardless of what we think of young players, they certainly do have trade value, and when you package a pick or two with those young players, opportunities to take the next step will be there. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but I'd rather be patient and take our best shot at starting something special, rather than giving up and deciding that mediocrity is good enough.

Jazz aren't in a great position to do a trade. If you consider that G, Gobert and Exum are the guys the Jazz would not trade then what have you? Kanter's trade value going into FA isn't high, if you trade Favors you're all but guaranteing you're going to massively overpay Kanter and you have to take that into consideration, you can't trade Burke cause if not Exum would be on fr a RUDE awakening, Burks is a PPP player this year and very hard to trade. So basically you have your 2015 pick that the team seems intended into keeping.

Well Hood, Booker, Novak, Evans, Murry and Clark aren't going to bring you in any kind of a huge benefit.

 

[freakazoid]

Quote Originally Posted by @nsanba View Post

Stockpiling draft picks isn't some sort of fool proof plan either.

Who said it was fool proof? Still waiting for a better alternative, and signing band-aid contracts to keep us hovering around the 13th pick is as close to a one-way street to mediocrity hell as you can get. No thanks, I'm willing to be patient with a rebuild that really only started last year.

Quote Originally Posted by @nsanba View Post

Sometimes getting ousted in the 2st round isn't the worst thing in the world.

I would give my left nut to get back to the second round. I'd love to hear how we get there without adding a star or two. Mediocre talent ain't gonna cut it, and star players aren't coming here in FA. Maybe DL could have made a trade by now, but he could have also ****ed it up by signing/trading for guys like Ben Gordon or Charlie Villanueva. Sometimes no moves are better than desperation moves. Not really interested in being Dumars Pistons or the NY Knicks without the FA draw. That's what impatience gets you.

Quote Originally Posted by @nsanba View Post

Jazz aren't in a great position to do a trade. If you consider that G, Gobert and Exum are the guys the Jazz would not trade then what have you? Kanter's trade value going into FA isn't high, if you trade Favors you're all but guaranteing you're going to massively overpay Kanter and you have to take that into consideration, you can't trade Burke cause if not Exum would be on fr a RUDE awakening, Burks is a PPP player this year and very hard to trade. So basically you have your 2015 pick that the team seems intended into keeping..

I might have overstated our trade assets, but it's certainly not as bad as some are making it out to be. We have GS's 2017 pick, so that means we could keep our 2015 pick, and then trade 2 consecutive firsts, as well as a million 2nds with a handful of young players. As for our players, I don't consider anyone to be untouchable. If you package picks with young players, we certainly do have assets to pull off a trade. That doesn't mean anything is guaranteed, just like nothing is guaranteed no matter what you do. The closest thing you'll get to a guarantee, is that as long as Utah can't find a star or two, they are going to struggle, and no amount of Band-Aid management is ever going to get us back to being a serious contender.
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Also, I think a lot of fans lack a true appreciation for just how much harder it is to build a team in Utah than most of the rest of the league. I still think we are doing fine right now. Successful rebuilding usually requires multiple high draft picks, and that can't happen when you're constantly trying to scrape into the 8th seed. I realize the team is basically unwatchable and I don't blame anyone for being frustrated, but it comes with the territory when you're trying to build a team capable of becoming legit.
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Tell you what, I'm willing to keep an open mind. Which teams do think we should try to emulate? The spurs have had their big three forever, but once they retire, I'm betting they end up in the same place as us. Sorry, but when you consider our huge disadvantage when competing for FAs, it makes building through the draft that much more crucial.

 

[@nsanba]

I'm not against building trough the draft. and I haven't giving up on the team either. But folks need to realize that this team as it looks may have been mismanaged to the point the rebuild will last far more and end with much diferente players. That to me is botching the rebuild.

We don't want to be the Knicks or Pistons, but we also don't want to be the Magic, the Bobcats or the Warriors and Clippers of old. If you continue to go for the BIG thing in the lottery you might just perpetuate a losing circle that is awfull to escape. Let's see how players will want to come and play in Utah if the Jazz endure 5 years of losing (for instance).

 

[GVC]

Who said it was fool proof? Still waiting for a better alternative, and signing band-aid contracts to keep us hovering around the 13th pick is as close to a one-way street to mediocrity hell as you can get. No thanks, I'm willing to be patient with a rebuild that really only started last year.

If getting a true star or two is absolutely necessary to contend, and the late 1st and 2nd round picks you've mentioned repeatedly have actual value, why are the Jazz paying three non-stars $38mil combined?

Do you think Alec, a 6th man making $10mil, or Gordo, who'll be lucky to make more than one all star team (if that), have more trade value now or in the two seasons before they signed their deals? Why would a team trade a young star for Gordo at the max and some 2nds, late 1sts and overpaid complementary players?

If the plan is to tank, and pray for a franchise player in the draft, what's with the half measures? The only player DL has traded is Randy Foye.

 

[r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t]

Honest question: What kind of dumbass expects a 19 year old to come in and have an immediate impact?

I was as excited about Exum as everyone else here. I still have hope for him. But, currently he's on-track to be one of the worst 19-year-old PER players of all time.

WTH, I'll post this again:

https://bkref.com/tiny/KJoQE

I understand that it takes time for very young players to improve, but he has literally done nothing so far to indicate that is going to happen. At some point in his rookie year he has to start putting up numbers at least as good as an average NBA player. I hope he does. So far he's played below replacement-level.

 

[freakazoid]

If getting a true star or two is absolutely necessary to contend, and the late 1st and 2nd round picks you've mentioned repeatedly have actual value, why are the Jazz paying three non-stars $38mil combined?

Do you think Alec, a 6th man making $10mil, or Gordo, who'll be lucky to make more than one all star team (if that), have more trade value now or in the two seasons before they signed their deals? Why would a team trade a young star for Gordo at the max and some 2nds, late 1sts and overpaid complementary players?

If the plan is to tank, and pray for a franchise player in the draft, what's with the half measures? The only player DL has traded is Randy Foye.

I don't disagree with everything, but I think you're making a lot of assumptions that may or may not end up being true. Any team with Bogut and Curry as the key players could easily have injury problems. I'd say odds are better than good that at least Bogut will miss a significant amount of games. Also, Utah could trade both of their OWN picks in 16 & 17, protected or unprotected, since they have the GS pick. I doubt that happens outside of some blockbuster, but saying we only have a late 1st isn't accurate.
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As for the value of players, I have some of the same concerns you do, but I don't think we know one way or another just yet, and I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt for now. Honestly, I see two things as the biggest factors in why our rebuild is where it is. First, the missed golden opportunity of the lockout, and secondly, our success with making the right picks. Believe me when I say I am bitter as hell we didn't go full rebuild during the lockout, but I'm trying to forget what we can't change.
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As for draft picks, I'm probably more forgiving than most. I don't expect a GM to get every pick right, since it's just not realistic. I see trey as a likely failure because of the fact we blew two picks on him, but in all honesty, we never should have been in that situation if we hadn't screwed the pooch on chasing the 8th seed the year before. Therefore, I am less critical of that decision that some. Honestly, even though it didn't work out the way we hoped, I don't mind a move like that because I like the better odds.
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Just my opinion, but I wonder how much KOC and DL were handcuffed by the Millers in trying to make the playoffs instead of rebuilding in those last two years with AlSap. Making the playoffs honestly ****ing killed us because it planted the thought of building on our 4 asskickings from the year before. Absolute fool's gold, and I never doubted that for a minute. Worst 4 games of awesome playoff experience ever when you look at the way the chips have fallen.
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Lastly, I want to do some reading of the new CBA before I get too far into this, but I believe some of the changes in the CBA are inhibiting our rebuild right now. Shorter contracts, unguaranteed contracts, and more teams with caps space have kind of hurt the Jazz in their ability to take advantage of other team's desperation like they have in the past, IMO. I'll admit that I'm not as up to speed with the new CBA as I was with the last one, so I need to do a little studying.

 

[@nsanba]

The new CBA especially the shorter contracts were POSION for the Jazz and small markets. Yeah it seemed like a good idea to get out of the way of bad contracts sooner, but it completely handcuffed their ability to keep their draft picks long term. As of right now the most you can have a player after drafting him is 7 years. It may look like a lot but truly that isn-t 7 ys but 6ys if the player wants to get out cause teams don-t want to go into that lame duck 7th season. And you can-t win a title within that window. It-s not me that says that. History says that. Only Tim Duncan and Dwyane Wade managed to win a title within- the first 7ys of his career with the team that drafted them. And they had the benefit of D. Robinson and Shaq by their side.

 

[Gameface]

The new CBA especially the shorter contracts were POSION for the Jazz and small markets. Yeah it seemed like a good idea to get out of the way of bad contracts sooner, but it completely handcuffed their ability to keep their draft picks long term. As of right now the most you can have a player after drafting him is 7 years. It may look like a lot but truly that isn-t 7 ys but 6ys if the player wants to get out cause teams don-t want to go into that lame duck 7th season. And you can-t win a title within that window. It-s not me that says that. History says that. Only Tim Duncan and Dwyane Wade managed to win a title within- the first 7ys of his career with the team that drafted them. And they had the benefit of D. Robinson and Shaq by their side.

Wha-t th-e ***-* ar-e yo-u talkin-g abou-t?

 

[freakazoid]

The new CBA especially the shorter contracts were POSION for the Jazz and small markets. Yeah it seemed like a good idea to get out of the way of bad contracts sooner, but it completely handcuffed their ability to keep their draft picks long term. As of right now the most you can have a player after drafting him is 7 years. It may look like a lot but truly that isn-t 7 ys but 6ys if the player wants to get out cause teams don-t want to go into that lame duck 7th season. And you can-t win a title within that window. It-s not me that says that. History says that. Only Tim Duncan and Dwyane Wade managed to win a title within- the first 7ys of his career with the team that drafted them. And they had the benefit of D. Robinson and Shaq by their side.

Interesting theory, but what? The changes I mentioned mean less opportunities for trades and for collecting picks by renting out cap space, because teams aren't as desperate to unload players, and the ones that have been have had more options in who they deal with. Lack of activity seems to be a big part of what you and others are calling into question, and fewer opportunities means Utah may have to grab what talent they can when they can, even if it means overpaying somewhat for some players. Obviously not the ideal situation, but I really believe better options have been scarce for the most part.

 

[Stoked]

Things DL did that I liked:

Gobert
Exum
Took his time with interviews replacing Corbin
Beefing up the scouting/support staff


I am very happy with the rebuild and the overall development improvement shown by the players.

Hayward looks stronger and more consistant than before
Gobert has dramatically improved. Can stay on the court and can catch the ball int he post and make smething happen
Favors J
Burke getting more assists

Still much room for improvement but overall the team is headed in the right direction. Very pleased.

Still got room on my bandwagon. I'm throwing in free sleeping pills for those to uptight to sit back and relax why we watch this team grow.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

Yesterday on twitter I posted a message that read:

"Jazz fans should prepare themselves cause the Jazz might have botched the rebuild"

Let me just say that wasn't very well accepted by the good twitter folks out there. But what I thought was kind of troubling was that I was accused of having a simplistic view of the problem. Something like "jazz aren't contending right now, so rebuilding failed". Well let me explain in more than 140 carachters what I meant.

Why have the Jazz gone into the doldrums of the NBA? Why haven't they retained any good player they have had in the last few years and let all of them walk? Mostly cause they were afraid of being saddled with na average team. Yet I look at the team that was assembled to replace those "average" players and see very little signs of absolute stardom from the players now on the Jazz team. I see glimpses like everyone else but nothing more.

Not only that but most of the starting five are entering their 4th and 5th years in the NBA. Why is this importante? Cause you can hardly find a true relation between age and development in the NBA. BUT you can find a clear correlation between experience and development. Most jumps in prodution occur between the 2nd to 3rd or 3rd to 4th season. That means that we might be looking at a much more finished product than we're willing to aknowledge. I'M NOT SAYING THE PLAYERS CAN'T PROGRESS. I'm saying that if they do in any significant way they will be, in a way, beating the odds.

So who is G and Favs, for instance? Borderline All-Stars? Wasn't that what we had before in Millsap and Big Al? Did we go trough the doldrums to end up moving sideways?

Thing is we should know by now the answer's to the questions listed above. The "not-so-young" core should have played much more and the FO should have a much better understanding of who they are. But they didn't. They didn't have a clear picture of who they are individually and they certainly haven't figured out if the mesh well together.

What other reason was there to not compete? The idea the Jazz needed to go into high lottery cause they wouldn't be able to retain talent or recrut talent. So think about it this way.....pick any player you want on the team to build the team around. When the Jazz are ready to contend they will have to have signed a new contract with the team before that happens. So why did the Jazz tank?

The Jazz are paying players a ton of Money, will have a hard time making trades cause there's no players out there that make sense and the players the Jazz have are very hard to trade for one reason or another.

Not only that but the Jazz are failing they're own standards for the season:
* play with the pass? no
* obvious unselfishness? not quite
* play better defense? hardly
* play with pace? no
* attack at the 45º? yes

It's not like I haven't seen the Jazz progresso this season. Some progress has been made. But the signs aren't pointing into the rebuild being a sucess story just of yet. In fact they might be pointing in the other diretion.

RANT OVER.

Oh my hell!!! That's all I'm going to say. I don't want to get banned, but keep it short. Don't pretend to be an expert. Please. Just be a damned fan who doesn't know what the hell they are talking about! Again, good hell that was bad!!

 

[Stoked]

The Jazz have been playing with the pass. There is a stat out there showing that the Jazz averaged over 100 passes more than anyone else.

There have been multiple plays per game where guys make the unselfish play/pass.

I agree that the D is still bad.