The juxtaposition of the Bojan Bogdanovic approach and the John Collins approach

[Tremendous Upside]

Detroit would have won that trade had they flipped Bogey for picks last year. But now they are on the losing end cuz they held onto him for too long. But we are making that same exact mistake right now by holding onto Olynyk for too long, especially when it comes at the cost of Kessler's development.

Huh?

On this roster, Olynyk is pretty much the ideal guy to help Walker develop. He's a smart big with a passing mindset and some ballhandling ability.

Getting rid of Olynyk would harm Kessler, not help him.

 

[Agent#00]

Collins has been pretty good. If you look at his 3pt shots he’s mostly wide open he just need to make them a little bit better. He is also a good ball tracker he can get those rebounds. Kessler is the one who is a little off he don’t play the last 8 minutes of the game. he’s not disruptive as he used to be. He need to get better otherwise somebody’s gonna take his minutes.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Collins has been pretty good. If you look at his 3pt shots he’s mostly wide open he just need to make them a little bit better. He is also a good ball tracker he can get those rebounds. Kessler is the one who is a little off he don’t play the last 8 minutes of the game. he’s not disruptive as he used to be. He need to get better otherwise somebody’s gonna take his minutes.

I don't think anyone's taking Kessler's minutes (at least no more than Collins has already done). Maybe if we were dead set on going for the playoffs and trying to win as much as possible, but this seems like another "tank lite" season.

 

[infection]

We have 4 slasher guards + Keyonte (who hopefully can become something more) crammed into a 10 man rotation none of whom are established great shooters.... and some of you push for Collins bad fit narrative, as well as him being the main source of our fit/spacing issues.

Confirmation bias is a real thing...

I didn’t say any of this.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This thread is less about the individual players specifically but about the dynamics surrounding the decisions made on each, though there is some specific things about each player relevant.

We moved Bojan last year for what was obviously a lesser total talent. The rationalization was that we were doing this to better balance the roster, that we needed a reliable big, and that Bojan would be occupying too much of the same space as Lauri, so this move solved a few problems to balance things, and that it would make our team better, despite the total talent reduction. This in what was supposed to be a tanking year where winning was irrelevant, if not outright detrimental to long-term goals, thus somewhat odd that we invoke a balanced roster as a necessity as it paid no significant dividends.

Last summer we moved for Collins in somewhat of a clunky fit under the rationalization that we're being opportunistic about acquiring talent and worrying less about fit. We're entering a year where our incentive is to win but we have a completely unbalanced roster, both in the front court and the guard situation and not having a reliable PG. We say that the balance isn't as important as the talent accumulation and opportunity, despite Collins occupying places where Lauri and Kessler are (one argument against Bogdanovic).

We were supposed to lose last year and took back less talent to "be better." We're supposed to "be better" this year and we're trotting out a wonky roster because we're "accumulating talent."

These ideas don't make sense and are backwards. This isn't to isolate one issue against the other, just that any argument to rationalize either approach will be in direct conflict with the rationalization of the other scenario.

I see where you are coming from here but I think the narrative around these moves is something we and the local writers do… I think Ainge kinda just does things without some final blue print (at least for now). So he need to trade Bogey for various reasons and trades for KO who is an okay enough player, fits a need, and happens to be enough money savings to duck the tax. Collins becomes available for just salary space and he’s like “sure why not?”. You end up with some weird roster spots as a value hunter.

 

[jom2003]

Huh?

On this roster, Olynyk is pretty much the ideal guy to help Walker develop. He's a smart big with a passing mindset and some ballhandling ability.

Getting rid of Olynyk would harm Kessler, not help him.

Well then KO is in the wrong professional. He should be sitting on the coaching staff's bench, not players. Who was the guy helping SGA develop in OKC, when they had one of the leagues youngest roster? Who was the guy helping Tatum develop in Boston? Kyrie? Who is the guy helping Wemby develop in San Antonio now? We had the trio of Marvin/Big Al/Millsap nurturing Kanter/Favs back during the Corbin era, and did we go anywhere with that?

The so-called veteran presence is massively overrated. We hired a whole coaching team dedicated to players development, and it's no use if we are giving our young players barely 20min a night, or sending them to the G league.

 

[Domino]

Well then KO is in the wrong professional. He should be sitting on the coaching staff's bench, not players. Who was the guy helping SGA develop in OKC, when they had one of the leagues youngest roster? Who was the guy helping Tatum develop in Boston? Kyrie? Who is the guy helping Wemby develop in San Antonio now? We had the trio of Marvin/Big Al/Millsap nurturing Kanter/Favs back during the Corbin era, and did we go anywhere with that?

The so-called veteran presence is massively overrated. We hired a whole coaching team dedicated to players development, and it's no use if we are giving our young players barely 20min a night, or sending them to the G league.

Well for starters shai had chris Paul for a season and Tatum had Hayward for his first two seasons who is a D bag but was an established vet in the league at the position Tatum plays

Having a mentor isn’t a necessity but those were bad examples and I’m sure it helps so to say it doesn’t matter at all is stupid in my opinion


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[HermanG]

I didn’t say any of this.

The point of your post is to question the logic that we got rid of Bojan due to fit issues, and later trade for Collins who is a bad fit. Add to that the time you brought this up, and its clear you are pointing fingers at least a little bit here.

I know you are not dismissing the other roster issues as you pointed one (lack of PG) out in the OP of this thread, but I dont think we should make any statements about the frontcourt before we see some solid guard play for at least a few games..

We have all seen how bad it is for the 4 veteran guards, but just to highlight it through the stats:
Clarkson PIE 6.9 with 49.7% TS and 1.56 AST/TO
Sexton PIE 5.2 with 49.3% TS and 1.2 AST/TO
THT PIE 5.0 with 38.4% TS and 4.33 AST/TO (awesome assist to turnover ratio but still super low impact!)
Dunn PIE 0.8 with 36.8% TS and 1.0 AST/TO

I know PIE isnt anyones favourite all around stat but it was the easiest to grab and shows the general direction of things. Among the 196 guards to play in the NBA this year, Clarkson ranks 123rd, Sexton 139th, THT 141st and Dunn 168th.

FWIW
Keyonte is 50th with 12.3 (respectable) and Ochai is 159th with 1.7 (horrible).

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is mostly for @infection

Here is my Danny Ainge analogy/allegory…

My son likes to go to “the bins”. What are the bins? It’s a massive warehouse where Goodwill bring a ton of stuff that is donated before it hits stores or is shipped to recyclers. It’s these giant bins and people rummage through and find treasures and they get to pay by the pound.

The reason my son likes to go there is he found a few high ticket items he sold for a $100 here and there as well as some lower ticket items he sells to some of the local clothing retailers. He also finds stuff he likes to wear even if it doesn’t fit he wears the clothes like a badge of honor. He loves those more than new clothes acquired through traditional means.

He was on a kick where he was going there multiple times a week when he was supposed to be finding a job and I was getting pretty annoyed “but dad I got this shirt and I can resell it for $75… I don’t need a job”. When you added up gas/time etc it may have been breaking even but not making much more than gas. It’s fine though cuz him and his friends like to do it but it doesn’t replace actual work/income.

Danny Ainge feels like my son at the bins. Searching for deals and finding some nice treasures. A noble activity so long as you aren’t ignoring the big picture/responsibilities. Get addicted to the deal and your own projects and you end up being the kid wearing the Affliction t shirt and size 40 name brand jeans that are way too big.

DA is a value hunter which is good but if that is all you are doing without much thought it will lead to having a closet full of THTs that no one wants to buy. And while you have a JC and a sexton at home you are also eyeballing the hell out of that Tyler Herro at the store. Like my son he’s in a spot where he needs get rid of some stuff before he can buy anymore… but that’s no fun so he heads back to the bins.

I have no doubt DA is looking for bigger things but his value hunting hobby has taken too big of a place when he needs to be shaping the roster a bit more. Even if that means selling off a THT for not much, or not rearing a Jordan Clarkson even though the price is really nice, or moving Sexton even though he think Sextons will be making a big comeback next season. I’m not super frustrated with it yet but he needs to do some things in season to make things make sense.

DA stop going to the bins and fill out a few job applications please.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

This is mostly for @infection

Here is my Danny Ainge analogy/allegory…

My son likes to go to “the bins”. What are the bins? It’s a massive warehouse where Goodwill bring a ton of stuff that is donated before it hits stores or is shipped to recyclers. It’s these giant bins and people rummage through and find treasures and they get to pay by the pound.

The reason my son likes to go there is he found a few high ticket items he sold for a $100 here and there as well as some lower ticket items he sells to some of the local clothing retailers. He also finds stuff he likes to wear even if it doesn’t fit he wears the clothes like a badge of honor. He loves those more than new clothes acquired through traditional means.

He was on a kick where he was going there multiple times a week when he was supposed to be finding a job and I was getting pretty annoyed “but dad I got this shirt and I can resell it for $75… I don’t need a job”. When you added up gas/time etc it may have been breaking even but not making much more than gas. It’s fine though cuz him and his friends like to do it but it doesn’t replace actual work/income.

Danny Ainge feels like my son at the bins. Searching for deals and finding some nice treasures. A noble activity so long as you aren’t ignoring the big picture/responsibilities. Get addicted to the deal and your own projects and you end up being the kid wearing the Affliction t shirt and size 40 name brand jeans that are way too big.

DA is a value hunter which is good but if that is all you are doing without much thought it will lead to having a closet full of THTs that no one wants to buy. And while you have a JC and a sexton at home you are also eyeballing the hell out of that Tyler Herro at the store. Like my son he’s in a spot where he needs get rid of some stuff before he can buy anymore… but that’s no fun so he heads back to the bins.

I have no doubt DA is looking for bigger things but his value hunting hobby has taken too big of a place when he needs to be shaping the roster a bit more. Even if that means selling off a THT for not much, or not rearing a Jordan Clarkson even though the price is really nice, or moving Sexton even though he think Sextons will be making a big comeback next season. I’m not super frustrated with it yet but he needs to do some things in season to make things make sense.

DA stop going to the bins and fill out a few job applications please.

And the main point of this is... there is no real approach other than value. We are trying to give an approach to a 16 yo with ADHD wandering through a rummage warehouse... we are going to end up with some weird **** in the trunk of the car and trying to make sense of it is a fool's errand.

 

[framer]

And the main point of this is... there is no real approach other than value. We are trying to give an approach to a 16 yo with ADHD wandering through a rummage warehouse... we are going to end up with some weird **** in the trunk of the car and trying to make sense of it is a fool's errand.

I mean it is very, very evident that when the Jazz get an opportunity to "bluesky" a choice for a player, they try to get plus positional size, and a shooter. If they can get athleticism, that's a plus. Some of the players we have are people on deals that we are looking to flip later. All of our guards but Keyonte and Clarkson are likely gone in 2 years with Ochai on the bubble. I can definitely see the direction we are going with the front court, and I am on board.

A real lack of direction would be flipping assets for players that might make sense this year and not for the next two. How much are you willing to give for a backup lead guard? I would submit that the future starting job has already been sorted.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean it is very, very evident that when the Jazz get an opportunity to "bluesky" a choice for a player, they try to get plus positional size, and a shooter. If they can get athleticism, that's a plus. Some of the players we have are people on deals that we are looking to flip later. All of our guards but Keyonte and Clarkson are likely gone in 2 years with Ochai on the bubble. I can definitely see the direction we are going with the front court, and I am on board.

A real lack of direction would be flipping assets for players that might make sense this year and not for the next two. How much are you willing to give for a backup lead guard? I would submit that the future starting job has already been sorted.

I'm not sure any of this is really true, but it shows part of the issue with "the approach". No one really knows what they are up to. We may have been aiming for positional size and shooting but we have a closet full of THT, Sexton, JC, Dunn... Collins is an athlete but not necessarily long or a shooter. Acquiring a bunch of stuff to flip later is part of what I am getting at with the analogy. That is exactly what my son does. At some point you look at getting stuff that works well with what you are doing and are less consumed with the value in the transaction.

We have a general direction in "we'd like to be good" but its not a real map and whatever comes on sale seems to be what we acquire. It works at some level but at some point you have to push in a direction that makes the roster fit. Taking whatever "the bins" yields is not a strategy to rely and depend on.

If Ainge moves 1 or 2 of JC, Sexton, THT or Dunn for value and maybe gets a real pg to supplement some of what those guys and Key give us... then it starts to make more sense. If we don't get an offer we like and just hold on to all of them because the value wasn't there... then I don't think there was a great plan. It was a bigger mistake last year than this year imo but hanging out in no man's land with a weird roster that doesn't allow your young players more room to grow... kinda rough.