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What if he does terrible but his +/- is good?

What if he does great but his stats don't turn into wins?

I think we are forgetting about PER, as well as the per minute stats that are vital.
If we can extrapolate his 12 minutes into what he would produce at 48 minutes and state that those would be good averages in the NBA we will be getting somewhere.
 
I think we are forgetting about PER, as well as the per minute stats that are vital.
If we can extrapolate his 12 minutes into what he would produce at 48 minutes and state that those would be good averages in the NBA we will be getting somewhere.

Then we have to take into account his development over the years. If he averages 20 and 10 per 36 minutes, then that means he will be a 25 and 15 guy by his 4th year in the league.
 
I think we are forgetting about PER, as well as the per minute stats that are vital.
PER is informative but forgettable, given that it underemphasizes defense--kinda a big crux of the arguments surrounding Big Al (and the Big Alaskan who defenselessly preceded him on the Jazz).

Blemishes aside, Hollinger's results lend credence to the notion that there isn't a huge difference between the present performance of Big Al and Little Paul, just like Luke Winn's SI stats suggest. For the 2010-2011 season, their PERs respectively rank them #28 and #29 in the league.
https://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hol.../insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics
(As for potential, though, I'd peg Jefferson as several slots higher than Mansap, whose effort (and maybe smarts) currently keeps the gap narrow--that is, until Big Al puts in more big effort.)

Meanwhile, +/- incorporates per-minute stats (as per-48 or some other equivalent denominator).
 
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These games will effect the board greatly. He does great, he then becomes the next Olajuwon. He does terrible, Kwame Brown.


So what your saying is.. If he plays good, he'll be great, and if he doesn't play well, then he'll do bad. Thats a fairly obvious observation. You could really say this about any player who ever enters the NBA, but still very insightful.
 
So what your saying is.. If he plays good, he'll be great, and if he doesn't play well, then he'll do bad. Thats a fairly obvious observation. You could really say this about any player who ever enters the NBA, but still very insightful.

No... I don't think that's what he's saying. I understood it as "If he plays well, he'll be elevated among members of this board to a potential-Olajuwon. Otherwise he'll be completely dismissed."
 
No... I don't think that's what he's saying. I understood it as "If he plays well, he'll be elevated among members of this board to a potential-Olajuwon. Otherwise he'll be completely dismissed."

Exactly. Same thing happened with Hayward. Hayward played like crap 80% of the season, then has a pretty good last 20%. All of the sudden we are talking about him making all-star games. Obvisouly I was using a hyperbole that anyone would compare him to Olajuwon, but I wouldn't put it past some posters.
 
Exactly. Same thing happened with Hayward. Hayward played like crap 80% of the season, then has a pretty good last 20%. All of the sudden we are talking about him making all-star games. Obvisouly I was using a hyperbole that anyone would compare him to Olajuwon, but I wouldn't put it past some posters.

But to be fair, Hayward's trajectory is going very strongly in the right direction. Better to start slow and finish strong, as a young player especially.

Also, this is coming from one of Hayward's biggest (former) haters. I don't know where he'll end up qualitatively in the scheme of things, but I do view him as a core piece in this rebuild.
 
Hayward did not play like crap in the games I saw earlier in the season. I don't see a lot of games, but in the ones I saw he showed potential.
 
Hayward did not play like crap in the games I saw earlier in the season. I don't see a lot of games, but in the ones I saw he showed potential.
He got abused a few times early (Vince Carter comes to mind...Hayward doesn't have the strength to defend a lot of NBA 3s), and looked pretty lost/scared. He settled down a lot at the end of the season, and the results speak for themselves.
 
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