The Lauri Thread

[HadAnEffectHere]

I don't really know how Ainge and Hardy sold Lauri on the tank.

Like, you look at the 2021 draft, a really good class.

Out of the top 8 guys, four became stars.

One of the four stars became a star in his third year (Scottie Barnes) while the other three needed until year 4 (Cade, Mobley, Franz). Barnes also regressed a lot in year 4.

Looking at the 2022 class, no one has produced at a star level yet other than Jalen Williams. Chet and Paolo will likely get there but have been held back by injuries.

2023? Only Wemby. Amen Thompson will get there and maybe Brandon Miller will one day as well.

2024? None, obviously.

In 2020, Ant and Haliburton became stars in year 3. Maxey in year 4. LaMelo has kind of been a star when healthy and engaged, but that never happens.

2019? Ja took until year 3 and there weren't any other stars in his class.

Post 2012, the guys who were stars by their second year in the NBA consist of:

Wemby
Luka
Trae Young
KAT

So the Jazz not only have to get a star player this year but then have them develop abnormally quickly for them to be a star player while Lauri is still under contract.

This also raises the question of why the Jazz went with the "tank with Lauri" plan when there are four total players drafted from 2013 to 2023 that became legitimate star players by year 2.

 

[KqWIN]

I think Lauri will rebound from his current play with better health and better situation, but the hypothetical improved version of Lauri isn't what matters for trade value. I think the Jazz made a quite large mistake by not trading him this summer and his trade value has taken a significant dive. There will still be teams that want him, but there are also some teams who see him as a better Cam Johnson who gets paid twice as much. At this point I think the Jazz need to cut their losses. The only situation in which I see keeping Lauri as viable is if we land Flagg, but even if we land Flagg the better option may be to trade Lauri anyways.

Jazz fans have an emotional/fan attachment to Lauri, and I get that. But if you remove that attachment I don't really see a good path to move forward with Lauri.

 

[fishonjazz]

I don't believe in that, bc the next draft is great and Jazz is still losing their pick if they slip to further than 8th pick.

Thats kind of my point. If we get a stud out of this draft and we have lauri, kessle, sexton, collins and our guys like flip, collier, keyonte, etc are all improved from this season of reps then we wont be able to be bad enough to stay below 8th in that great draft.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I think Lauri will rebound from his current play with better health and better situation, but the hypothetical improved version of Lauri isn't what matters for trade value. I think the Jazz made a quite large mistake by not trading him this summer and his trade value has taken a significant dive. There will still be teams that want him, but there are also some teams who see him as a better Cam Johnson who gets paid twice as much. At this point I think the Jazz need to cut their losses. The only situation in which I see keeping Lauri as viable is if we land Flagg, but even if we land Flagg the better option may be to trade Lauri anyways.

Jazz fans have an emotional/fan attachment to Lauri, and I get that. But if you remove that attachment I don't really see a good path to move forward with Lauri.

The other thing to think about here is that we’re already kinda logjammed at the position (or whatever) that Lauri plays.

I love Lauri and I’m happy for him that he got the bag and that he loves it here, but, yeah, I think we ****ed up this summer. There are worse problems, but best case scenario from here is that either we get lucky and have a quick rebound and/or HE has a rebound and we trade him midseason next year.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

Thats kind of my point. If we get a stud out of this draft and we have lauri, kessle, sexton, collins and our guys like flip, collier, keyonte, etc are all improved from this season of reps then we wont be able to be bad enough to stay below 8th in that great draft.

Most rookies contribute basically nothing to winning. Wemby was the only rookie from the 2023 class that really helped his team win last year.

 

[fishonjazz]

Most rookies contribute basically nothing to winning. Wemby was the only rookie from the 2023 class that really helped his team win last year.

Exactly. Of the 8 players i mentioned only one would be a rookie. And if that rookie is Flagg then he would likely contribute more than most. Next years team wouldn't have many rookies in the rotation.
Also, in my original post I mentioned that I believe Lauri will get back to all star form if we get The Guy in this draft and keep our good vets around as well. So if im right then even less chance we suck next year with all star lauri back.

 

[jazznik]

This is nothing new and goes back to his Chicago days. I mean, he has clearly grown as a player since then but his inconsistency, the overreliance on the 3-pointers and the frequent lack of assertiveness have defined him as a player for a long time. You can find many descriptions of his play in Chicago and Cleveland being variations of the same theme we are discussing now:

that change sealed the deal on his inability to contribute on a consistent level.

...In some games, he is on fire and makes a huge difference with his shooting as a big man. In other games, he isn’t very interested in taking shots at all. Markkanen almost never contributes in other ways these days.

The fourth-year big man is on pace to finish this season with career-low averages across the board. Although his shooting percentages are up, that is negated by the lack of willingness to be a scorer each and every night.

Far too many of his shot attempts are coming from three. No assertiveness by him to use his size to get into a rhythm with some easy makes is shown. If he isn’t hitting from outside early he isn’t going to make an impact.

 

[jazznik]

Just for the context, here is the comparison of Lauri's stats this season vs his second year with Chicago (from ESPN):

2018-2019 - 32 MPG: 19 PPG, 9 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.6 BPG. 43% FG, 36% 3P, 87% FT. Distribution of shots: 15 FGA (including 6 3-point FGA), 4 FTA.
2024-2025 - 32 MPG: 19 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.4 BPG. 43% FG, 35% 3P, 87% FT. Distribution of shots: 15 FGA (including 8 3-point FGA), 4 FTA.

He is playing this year the same way he did in his second year with Chicago. The only difference is that Lauri hangs more on the perimeter and thus 3-pointers account for a larger share of his FGAs and he rebounds way less.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

I don't think he looks unmotivated. Frustrated, sure. He's still out there chasing smaller guys around screens and killing his body in meaningless games. Never been a guy whose effort level fluctuates according to the opposition or situation.

But Lauri's probably in the worst possible situation for a player like him (basketball-wise). He's something of a luxury piece, a guy who elevates a team that already knows what it's doing... but Lauri can't drag a bunch of rookies and G-Leaguers out of a hole. He doesn't have the personality or the skillset.

It just doesn't make any sense for him to be on this roster.

Lmao. If not for the jazz he wouldn’t have a 5 year 200 million dollar contract. Hes in a hell of a great situation. He should’ve been traded after year one here. Someone has to score on this team. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good player but he’ll never earn that full contract. Hes in a hell of a great situation

Ok blast away I know it’s coming.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

Just for the context, here is the comparison of Lauri's stats this season vs his second year with Chicago (from ESPN):

2018-2019 - 32 MPG: 19 PPG, 9 RPG, 1.4 APG, 0.6 BPG. 43% FG, 36% 3P, 87% FT. Distribution of shots: 15 FGA (including 6 3-point FGA), 4 FTA.
2024-2025 - 32 MPG: 19 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.4 BPG. 43% FG, 35% 3P, 87% FT. Distribution of shots: 15 FGA (including 8 3-point FGA), 4 FTA.

He is playing this year the same way he did in his second year with Chicago. The only difference is that Lauri hangs more on the perimeter and thus 3-pointers account for a larger share of his FGAs and he rebounds way less.

He played actually better, but it's hard to compare as he was not as heavily guarded.

He was having much more flashy dunks than this season. He also was named a player of the conference in one week of February 2019, and played the whole month like an all star, averaging something like 25-26 points a game ( then got heart palpitations and was shut down the rest of the season... Third season with the Bulls got really derailed with their coach Boylen, who had taken the lead by the time of Lauri's career month by then, but using mostly former coach Hoiberg's playbook)

Lauri also had Zach Lavine to help him out that season, and on his all star level play I February, they had acquired Otto Porter jr. that played his last really high level period of basketball. So Lauri was getting help by opponents required to take attention on Lavine who also has a great stretch at the time, and Bulls had for a hot moment a true 3 that made great passes, cuts, handled the ball somewhat ok and had a great IQ.

The overall stats resemble each other for sure, but. Both the team construction and Lauri's assertiveness were league higher than the version of 24-25 Jazz.

 

[Doc Cherno]

If anyone needs to wring out their panties about Lauri, Amazon is having a sale. He will be fine when there’s a reason to compete. In the meantime he’s trying things he’s uncomfortable with to develop his game.

 

[Tanktastic]

In the meantime he’s trying things he’s uncomfortable with to develop his game.

Exactly what? All he is doing is standing around and chucking no-hope threes.