The "Official" How many Turnovers did Trey Burke have in this game thread.

[da ThRONe]

We have a red-alert for speaking out of your ***.

This is very misleading, even for the player examples you gave. Don't focus on raw turnover per game numbers which conceal things like minutes differences and pacing differences and even team composition differences. Focus on TOV% which expresses the percentage of possessions that players ends with a turnover.

Isiah Thomas' TOV% declined from 19.2% to 16.8% for his career, with lows around 15%.

Larry Bird reduced his percentage from 14% to 12.7% for his career.

Michael Jordan's turnover percentage declined from 13.0% as a rookie to 9.3% for his career. Even MJ's per game TO numbers declined substantially.

Magic's TO% remained high (and in fairness, so did Stockton's).

Some of these differences may seem small but keep in mind that players of this caliber are using thousands of possessions per season and this represents solid improvement.

Burke's current TOV% is 9.1% which is very very low. This is the entire list of guards who manged a TOV% of 9.1% or lower in their rookie season while also playing a substantial number of games (60 or more) since the NBA began keeping track of turnovers.

1. Marcus Thornton (7.3%)
2. Quincy Pondexter (7.6%)
3. Rex Chapman (7.7%)
4. Jodie Meeks (8.1%)
5. Anthony Morrow (8.3%)
6. Eddie Jones (8.4%)
7. Randy Wittman (8.6%)
8. Eddie Robinson (8.6%)
9. Kerry Kittles (9.0%)
10. Jeff Martin (9.1%)


Of those players, only Eddie Jones both improved substantially over their rookie season and developed into an NBA player you probably actually would consider an asset (I guess the jury might still be out on Pondexter, but I doubt it).

The point is that Burke's present Turnover numbers aren't a powerful predictor of a strong NBA future.




It's not a point of criticism about the player. I'm saying this isn't necessarily a good reason to be excited about Burke's future growth. I'm telling people not to drink so much punch over this particular statistic.

Of the names on that list none of them were point guards. Pondexter plays the 3 in most situations. These aren't even driving guards. These are catch and shoot players. You have to list other PG's in order for you're list to have merit. Of course these guys would have low TO% the weren't making decisions with the ball.

 

[sirkickyass]

Did those players play a lot of minutes/starting role on a bad team? Just wondering.

Chapman, Jones, and Kittles all started more than half their team's games that season. All but Pondexter and Meeks played more than 1000 minutes in their Rookie seasons.

 

[sirkickyass]

Of the names on that list none of them were point guards. Pondexter plays the 3 in most situations. These aren't even driving guards. These are catch and shoot players. You have to list other PG's in order for you're list to have merit. Of course these guys would have low TO% the weren't making decisions with the ball.

Guess what: there are no other PGs that make that list. Can't find them. Never happened.

The only point guard I could find that came particularly close was Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf. His play pattern is kind of a special case as others who were following the NBA at that point in time can attest.

 

[Doublea]

Guess what: there are no other PGs that make that list.

So Burke is super super special???

 

[da ThRONe]

Guess what: there are no other PGs that make that list.

Well than he's on completely unique ground. Therefore there's no data to back-up the claim that not turning the ball over is a sign of limited potential. Maybe it just means he's coming into the league with that part of his game at an extremely high level so he can focus on other areas he needs to improve at.

 

[sirkickyass]

Well than he's on completely unique ground. Therefore there's no data to back-up the claim that not turning the ball over is a sign of limited potential. Maybe it just means he's coming into the league with that part of his game at an extremely high level so he can focus on other areas he needs to improve at.

I see, so because he's had a handful of games with a low rate we should throw out everything else we can learn about player progression paths because he's a cute little snowflake.

I don't think analysis is going to be your strong suit. Come back when you're a bit older.

 

[da ThRONe]

I see, so because he's had a handful of games with a low rate we should throw out everything else we can learn about player progression paths because he's a cute little snowflake.

I don't think analysis is going to be your strong suit. Come back when you're a bit older.

Hold up aren't you the one making the claim and the list. If it's too early to judge him then why are you doing so. This whole discussion started because you started it not me.

Analysis isn't my strong suit, but you make a list of player that role was completely different from Burke to make a point???

 

[sirkickyass]

Hold up aren't you the one making the claim and the list. If it's too early to judge him then why are you doing so. This whole discussion started because you started it not me.

Analysis isn't my strong suit, but you make a list of player that role was completely different from Burke to make a point???

Are you serious? Are you trolling?

My position was as follows: Low turnover rates as a rookie aren't a strong predictor of future improvement or NBA success.

A secondary position is that low turnover rates tend to correlate with less dramatic improvement in the future as there are fewer easily correctable mistakes to corral.

The entire point is that you can't get too excited about this stat. I didn't make any statements at all about whether or not Burke is a quality NBA player or would be in the future. Just that this particular metric is a poor one to try to make those judgments on and may indicate he's closer to his ceiling than we'd like.

The list is evidence both that the stat is itself is a poor predictor of success and that players at Burke's level in the stat tend to have a a low level of improvement following their rookie season. In all honesty, if he's as good as he's been right now for the next six seasons with no improvements I'd be generally fine with that.

The list isn't designed to be comparable sizes or play styles to Burke: it's designed to be the only possible list of players with similar TO% in their rookie season. I made a concession to limit it to players listed as "guards" simply to try and find more frequent ball handlers. I also made the guard concession for space, as expanding the list to include forwards and centers brings back 27 results instead. You can examine that larger list here: https://www.basketball-reference.co...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

For some of those players (Kawhi Leonard comes to mind) the jury is still out. However it is still generally the case that these players don't show much marked improvement from their rookie season in terms of NBA impact. In addition to the previously noted exception of Eddie Jones, I think the expanded list would add LaMarcus Aldridge and Harvey Grant as players who both made significant improvements from their rookie seasons and were legitimate assets to their team. For the rest of the list the story is generally pretty uniform.

 

[Joe Bagadonuts]

We have a red-alert for speaking out of your ***.

This is very misleading, even for the player examples you gave. Don't focus on raw turnover per game numbers which conceal things like minutes differences and pacing differences and even team composition differences. Focus on TOV% which expresses the percentage of possessions that players ends with a turnover.

Isiah Thomas' TOV% declined from 19.2% to 16.8% for his career, with lows around 15%.

Larry Bird reduced his percentage from 14% to 12.7% for his career.

Michael Jordan's turnover percentage declined from 13.0% as a rookie to 9.3% for his career. Even MJ's per game TO numbers declined substantially.

Magic's TO% remained high (and in fairness, so did Stockton's).

Some of these differences may seem small but keep in mind that players of this caliber are using thousands of possessions per season and this represents solid improvement.

Burke's current TOV% is 9.1% which is very very low. This is the entire list of guards who manged a TOV% of 9.1% or lower in their rookie season while also playing a substantial number of games (60 or more) since the NBA began keeping track of turnovers.

1. Marcus Thornton (7.3%)
2. Quincy Pondexter (7.6%)
3. Rex Chapman (7.7%)
4. Jodie Meeks (8.1%)
5. Anthony Morrow (8.3%)
6. Eddie Jones (8.4%)
7. Randy Wittman (8.6%)
8. Eddie Robinson (8.6%)
9. Kerry Kittles (9.0%)
10. Jeff Martin (9.1%)


Of those players, only Eddie Jones both improved substantially over their rookie season and developed into an NBA player you probably actually would consider an asset (I guess the jury might still be out on Pondexter, but I doubt it).

The point is that Burke's present Turnover numbers aren't a powerful predictor of a strong NBA future.




It's not a point of criticism about the player. I'm saying this isn't necessarily a good reason to be excited about Burke's future growth. I'm telling people not to drink so much punch over this particular statistic.

At first I thought your point was idiotic, but then you backed it up with some solid stuff. Well done.

 

[UGLI baby]

Could make a decent argument that high TO's aren't that alarming for a rookie, bit to pretend like a lack of TO's caps someone's upside is beyond full artard.


dat jazzfanz.com mobile app doe

 

[fishonjazz]

Could make a decent argument that high TO's aren't that alarming for a rookie, bit to pretend like a lack of TO's caps someone's upside is beyond full artard.


dat jazzfanz.com mobile app doe

Couldn't have said it better myself....except I would have exchanged the word bit for but

 

[da ThRONe]

Are you serious? Are you trolling?

My position was as follows: Low turnover rates as a rookie aren't a strong predictor of future improvement or NBA success.

A secondary position is that low turnover rates tend to correlate with less dramatic improvement in the future as there are fewer easily correctable mistakes to corral.

The entire point is that you can't get too excited about this stat. I didn't make any statements at all about whether or not Burke is a quality NBA player or would be in the future. Just that this particular metric is a poor one to try to make those judgments on and may indicate he's closer to his ceiling than we'd like.

The list is evidence both that the stat is itself is a poor predictor of success and that players at Burke's level in the stat tend to have a a low level of improvement following their rookie season. In all honesty, if he's as good as he's been right now for the next six seasons with no improvements I'd be generally fine with that.

The list isn't designed to be comparable sizes or play styles to Burke: it's designed to be the only possible list of players with similar TO% in their rookie season. I made a concession to limit it to players listed as "guards" simply to try and find more frequent ball handlers. I also made the guard concession for space, as expanding the list to include forwards and centers brings back 27 results instead. You can examine that larger list here: https://www.basketball-reference.co...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

For some of those players (Kawhi Leonard comes to mind) the jury is still out. However it is still generally the case that these players don't show much marked improvement from their rookie season in terms of NBA impact. In addition to the previously noted exception of Eddie Jones, I think the expanded list would add LaMarcus Aldridge and Harvey Grant as players who both made significant improvements from their rookie seasons and were legitimate assets to their team. For the rest of the list the story is generally pretty uniform.

If trolling is asking someone to have some consistency in their stance. Then yes I'm trolling.

1st why are you making these comparsions if it just a sample?

2nd to your point about not getting excited why not? Your agrument has too many fallacy in it. You are basically comparing apples to oranges when you compare players that are catch-n-shoot wings to a lead guard. What are these players usage rate? How many mins did they log their rookie seasons? What were their over all projections as pros? Just a few questions that would need to be answered to get a feel for why they had such low TO% and why they didn't improve.

You are assuming that I'm not aware of your original point. I never said how you felt about Burke as a prospect. This has always been about you suggesting that his low TO% is not a good indication that he will be a good player, and that it may be a sign that his ceiling is limited.