The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

[idestroyedthetoilet]

The mineral interests are the security guarantees.

My kid's school banned dodge ball. The directive to do so came down from the school district. The PE teachers invented a substitute game called 'Medic', which is exactly like dodge ball except that it adds a designated player who can so something I'm not clear on, but which makes the game not technically dodge ball even though it is dodge ball. The mineral interests are 'Medic'.

Putin cannot allow an American-military-staffed DMZ on their border. They supposedly went to war over concerns of NATO on their border. Putin has to be able to sell to his people that Russia won, and nobody will buy that if there is now a several-hundred mile long US military base on the Russian border. A 'mining interest' filled with American contractors is an easier sell. In function, it is a DMZ on Ukrainian land that functions as a trip wire as our obligation to defend our 'mining interests' is written into the agreement.

The truth is the 'mining interests' may never actually result in a mine worth much of anything. Technically, Ukraine already signed all of those mineral rights away to the UK for the next 100 years.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/uk-ukraine-100-year-partnership-agreement/

The mineral deal being signed with the US, is a pretext only for getting Americans on the ground in a way that Putin isn't forced to object to. It is better than a security guarantee written into a treaty as proven when we didn't put US soldiers on the ground in Ukraine even though we had given Ukraine a security guarantee decades ago to convince Ukraine to give up their stash of Soviet nukes.

You asked me for one reason. The one reason you ask for is this: Americans on the ground are much harder for America to walk away from.

For the past three years, Zelensky has been exactly what Ukraine needed, but he is not the guy to bring peace. Right now Ukraine needs a prick who knows how to close deals, and one of the best on the planet is offering to help. It is in Ukraine's best interests to let Trump cook.

This is so flimsy a guarantee that Zelenskyy cannot ever accept it. If it is a guarantee then call it a guarantee properly. Nobody is gullible enough or near sited enough to believe Putin will honor a paper agreement without a sound guarantee after 1. he has violated all of them, and 2. The United States and Russia have violated the 1994 promise.

Defending a mine in Timbuktu is no guarantee at all. There is no obligation for any American to work there. Putin can simply leave it alone as he wars around it. Give Trump the benefit of the doubt here, an extreme stretch of offering up national security on trust alone, a trust that has been violated already by the United States, and say Putin will honor this under Trump. What happens when Trump is gone in four short years?

There is no guarantee here and as you already described it well it is a face saving agreement with no substance.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

This is so flimsy a guarantee that Zelenskyy cannot ever accept it.

I am well aware of Zelensky's excuses of all guarantees being to flimsy. Trump's plan is too flimsy to accept. Zelensky says that if Ukraine falls then Putin will march on Poland, a NATO country, establishing that he thinks NATO membership is to flimsy of a guarantee. In the meeting in the White House, Zelensky told Trump the Atlantic was too flimsy of a guarantee.

The problem isn't the guarantee being too flimsy. The problem is Zelensky. His position of not being willing to stop a war using the excuse that another war might start later is retarded. If all guarantees are too flimsy to be worth stopping a war, then Zelensky has to go. Personally, I don't think you are reading Zelensky correctly, and I do think he is beginning to understand reality. I do not see Zelensky as the lost cause you seem to, and I hope for the sake of the Ukrainian people that you are wrong and I am correct.

 

[fishonjazz]

Pretty simple. trump just needs to put a security guarantee in the deal. Then we find out if zelensky really just wants the war to continue like the Russia fans say he does. But until that security is in the deal he isn't accepting it. He has spelled that out many times.
If trump really wants the war to end then just put the damn security guarantees in the deal.
Zelensky is already giving up territory in the deal. Already giving up minerals/money in the deal. Already having to watch Putin go without any punishment.

trump obviously doesn't want the war to end. trump knows that zelensky requires security guarantees in the deal. trump won't put them in the deal. trump wants the war to continue.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

But until that security is in the deal he isn't accepting it.

Think so, do ya?

Zelensky's conciliatory letter to Trump suggests he's run out of options

The Ukrainian leader's climb-down on security guarantees may be because the US is the only place he can turn to, writes BBC Ukraine correspondent James Waterhouse.

www.bbc.com

 

[fishonjazz]

Think so, do ya?

Zelensky's conciliatory letter to Trump suggests he's run out of options

The Ukrainian leader's climb-down on security guarantees may be because the US is the only place he can turn to, writes BBC Ukraine correspondent James Waterhouse.

www.bbc.com

A speculative article and no deal signed still? Oh wow

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[fishonjazz]

Saw this comment:
Why would Zelensky agree to yet another peace agreement? There have been 12 agreed upon, signed by both parties, agreements, with the first being put into place in 2012. Each and every time, Putin has broken the terms by sending troops into Ukraine unprovoked. Multiple countries have mediated these agreements, the US included. The definition of insanity "doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result". Why would he have any faith any agreement would be honored?And the agreement proposed by Trump does not have anywhere near favorable terms for his country- The US gets the rights to not only minerals and rare earth, but ALL other natural resources to the amount of 500 billion dollars. Russia gets Ukraines land. There is no guarantee the US will provide assistance to them against Russia, and any assistance provided must be paid back double (2 dollars for every 1 dollar) - The deal will put his citizens in debt for the next decade, and the country will still not have any guarantees of sovereignty. If our president agreed to a deal like that, we would impeach him.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

A speculative article and no deal signed still? Oh wow

Yup, and a missile strike killed some civilians...

Missile Strikes Hotel in Zelensky’s Hometown in Ukraine

At least four people were killed in a Russian attack, Ukraine said, amid concerns about air defenses after the U.S. said it was suspending military and intelligence aid.

www.nytimes.com

... and Ukraine is taking back some small villages south of Pokrovsk that are mostly piles of rubble at the cost of several hundred soldier's lives.

Ukrainian forces liberate Kotlyne village near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast

Kotlyne and Pokrovsk are connected by the T 0406 highway, which also leads to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

kyivindependent.com

..and it will be more tomorrow, and more the day after that, and more the day after that. The killing and dying will go on day after day until both sides put down their weapons, and I cheer the effort to get both sides to do that.

 

[fishonjazz]

Yup, and a missile strike killed some civilians...

Missile Strikes Hotel in Zelensky’s Hometown in Ukraine

At least four people were killed in a Russian attack, Ukraine said, amid concerns about air defenses after the U.S. said it was suspending military and intelligence aid.

www.nytimes.com

... and Ukraine is taking back some small villages south of Pokrovsk that are mostly piles of rubble at the cost of several hundred soldier's lives.

Ukrainian forces liberate Kotlyne village near Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast

Kotlyne and Pokrovsk are connected by the T 0406 highway, which also leads to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

kyivindependent.com

..and it will be more tomorrow, and more the day after that, and more the day after that. The killing and dying will go on day after day until both sides put down their weapons, and I cheer the effort to get both sides to do that.

Exactly. We agree that trump should put security guarantees in the deal but trump wants the killing to continue.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

Exactly. We agree that trump should put security guarantees in the deal but trump wants the killing to continue.

If Trump wanted the killing to continue, all he'd have to do is recall Marco Rubio and ship in more weapons.

 

[fishonjazz]

If Trump wanted the killing to continue, all he'd have to do is recall Marco Rubio and ship in more weapons.

Or stop giving Ukraine intelligence to help shoot down drones that are killing people.

Or not include something in the peace agreement that could get it done.

There are multiple things trump could do to ensure more killing. He is doing some of them and not doing some of them.

 

[fishonjazz]

trump is willing to throw the US a bone to get peace.
He is willing to throw Russia a bone to get peace.
But throw Ukraine a bone. Nah. If that is necessary for peace then **** peace.

 

[Al-O-Meter]

trump is willing to throw the US a bone to get peace.
He is willing to throw Russia a bone to get peace.
But throw Ukraine a bone. Nah. If that is necessary for peace then **** peace.

Not at all. The negotiators for the US are seeking to give both sides the bones they need, and that may include security guarantees, but those conversations need to take place in private. The back-and-forth of negotiations needs to happen away from the cameras.

The huge mistake Zelensky made was to believe himself to be seen as such a hero to Western people as to believe no elected official in a Western country would dare deny him on camera for fear of losing the support of their own population. Zelensky apparently didn't believe what the US was putting in the deal as sufficient and so he arranged to appear on camera in front of the American public under the guise of it being a signing ceremony, to make the case for what he wanted instead of letting those negotiating on Ukraine's behalf behind closed doors do that. It was amateur hour, and it did more damage than I believe Zelenksy was thinking it possibly could have.

Zelensky's lie about the pretense for going to the White House, which we know was a lie as Zelenksy told Senator Chris Murphy beforehand that he had no intention of signing the deal at the White House, combined with his massive miscalculation at how Trump would react to Zelenksy's effort to pressure him on camera, has led to the stoppage in weapons shipments, the cutting off of intelligence, the US reaching out to political rivals in Ukraine to replace Zelensky, and even rumblings of deporting 240,000 Ukrainians currently living in the United States. All of that stemmed from Zelensky trying to negotiate in front of the cameras. If the negotiations had been left behind closed doors, none of it would have happened.

There is a reason we don't hear anything about the negotiations with the Russians. Say what you want about the Russians, but they aren't amateur hour.